Member Info for Supercooper

Happy, Thanks for the analysis as far as it goes and if any potential investor decides on investing based on forecasts of current year performance, well then they have proably missed the opportunity. What I try to do as an investor is to look at medium term prospects, Rahul has stated many times that 2021 is a transition year. As I have stated before, if OP remains at present levels TLW will generate enough cash to bring debt close to 1.5bln by 2023 which is clearly a different perspective than you are presenting. Personally I believe that short term any significant rise in SP from here would need a Suriname discovery, but over time it will continue its recovery. Every $10 increase in POO gives $100ml additional cashflow at present forecasted production. With 1 and possibly 2 rigs drilling development wells in the next number of years that figure obviously increases. So whilst I have no qualms about your prediction for 2021 +/- 100ml net debt, it is the years after 2021 where the real pay down of debt will occur, barring unforeseen circumstances.

Most commentators latch on to the level of debt that Tullow has as the main reason to avoid buying the share. The unique position TLW is in now is their ability to pay down debt to a more appropriate level. If poo remains at current levels for the next 3 years, debt can be reduced to 1.5 bln by end of 2023. That's worst case with no further sales, rights issues or other capital raise - purely out of increasing production as per strategy. If this is accelerated by bringing in a second rig to Ghana then it could be even quicker. The real risk is poo which is the same for any oil company. Also, the huge write downs made in the last two years makes Tlw more profitable per barrel produced. This is a remarkable turnaround and underpins the present share price recovery imho.

Kris,
Tullow listed on Financial Times FTSE 250 today

Nobody has mentioned this but it is part of the jigsaw. In an industry that is not much loved due to climate change, this TLW policy will put the company in a better light with increasing investor hostility to oil companies. Although peoples morals sometimes go out the window when you can make money on a particular share, still think this is a good marketing ploy if nothing else.

"My reading between the lines: the creditors are pressing for Tullow to raise equity and/or agree a debt for equity component in the refinancing but management is resisting. It'll be very interesting to see where this lands."

What in the name of God lines are you reading between? What were you doing on the webcast when you have no interest in investing????

Could somebody clarify this bullet
"Material upside to oil price with business plan generating an additional $1.5 billion of pre-financing cash flow @ $65/bbl"
v

"Every $10/bbl increase in the oil price delivers c.$100 million incremental pre-financing cash flow up to $75/bb"

For someone who wouldn't invest in TLW you spend time posting on it's BB?? The 10 year strategy clearly sets out how TLW can generate cash to pay debt AND invest further in its assets. BP has, and will, need to pay over the odds for renewables assets to get out of oil altogether and also try to maintain profits and dividends in the future. I know which company I would invest more of my hard earned money in..........................

Personally, I intend to hold for 18 months and would prefer poo to stabilise between $65-70 as I would be concerned anything higher could be counter-productive and possibly not sustainable. Poo @ $100 could slow economic recovery to a trickle and longer term would damage TLW sp.

Not a placing, probably covering Rahuls options over time.

If Op remains in the same range as presently over the next two years, by the end of 2022 debt should be approaching 1.5bln without any further asset sales. Continued production increases and recommencement of exploration in Guyana will see TLW back on track in 2022 and I can see a SP of at least 1.00. If GVN is successful, all bets are off.

Probably missing something here but it has been well flagged by Rahul that discussions are ongoing with bondholders to align/reschedule maturities with expected cashflows in accordance with new strategy. I'm at a loss to know whats new in the circular' The fact that they are not refinancing may or may not be a mistake but it hasn't been pulled out of the hat today.

Only downside in Tlw strategy is the core spend of future capex will be 90% on West African assets. This implies one of two things. Either a significant farm down on all acreage in non-West African assets (most likely) or little coverage for future exploration. If we raised capex to 600mln (substantial increase on current spend) it would give 60ml for other exploration. I would like to have seen a greater commitment to future finds, but still happy with Tlw prospects over the next 2-5 years.

Like many LTHs on this board I remember vividly the day Tlw sp reached 7p. I can't recall anytime my self belief was tested as much as that day. As a holder from 2.00 My strategy was to add from 7p consistently and as of today have broken even. I'm not boasting but offer congratulations to those that have stuck with TLW because its a company that is becoming investable again thanks to Rahul.

Slift, is that from Tlw or are you calculating

The drop in production doesn't look half as bad now if it includes 6,000 bopd los as a result of this sale. The forecast figures for 2021 must surely be net of this sale??

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. At the time the deal was done poo was 30$ less than it is now and nobody was predicting current prices. If Tlw hadn't done that deal the company would be dead. Also remember it was Les's hedging that also saved the company during 2020. Have a go at the board maybe - majority of them have a financial background and presided over an accumulation of debt over 5 years and nobody cried stop!!!

Yes thanks Davstock, though I doubt the usual de-rampers on here will believe you got an email to that effect from Tlw. I don't see a quick recovery of the SP unless GVN comes in particulalry given poo @58 and we put on only a few pence.

Just to lift the head a little, the FTSE 350 Oil & Gas Producers lost 10% in the last 2 weeks. Its not all about TLW specific; though clearly this week has created doubts about RBL due to extension.

Happy, I'll finish on this thread with the observation that in order to raise 300ml (insignificant compared to 2.4bln) Tlw would need to issue 1,5billion shares - investors can judge if that is something they would be in favour of. The way out of this is long term trading out of it imo, as set out in the strategy that was'nt in existence the last time RBL was negotiated.

Davstock,
With the proviso the answer may come directly from some temp in the typing pool....