Member Info for Supercooper

I'd imagine the order was filled during the course of the morning accounting for some of the 3.4% rise - either ways somebody spent close to a million buying Tlw shares

46.33

Buy just gone through - somebody is confident!

Not based on your assessment

Or how about 40% with a 10% carry and 300-400mln cash to reduce debt?

The fact is it doesn't take much to lose the confidence of investors but McDade and co managed to do that through mis-representation and being economical with the truth until it all came out. The amount of money lost by investors as a result was massive. Rahul is doing a fantastic job turning the company around and trying to regain that trust but unfortunately it will take time. I think a 12 month view could see the sp 80p-100p.

RunningMan that's what I was thinking - too much of a coincidence. I'm not informed enough to know what significance a UT of 33m shares may have - can anyone enlighten me??

If the oil price stays around these levels in 2022 (some are predicting higher prices) we should see 200ml after tax profit. My "back of a fag packet" calculation would give a reasonable value (without any developments in Guyana/Kenya) of £0.6-£0.7 per share

There are profit takers (the"Sell on news" brigade) and I would bet that some of the FT250 funds are still unwinding ahead of tomorrows Tlw exit so not necessarily shorters. I agree with YE, too much rubbish talked about dark forces at work. I think you'd want be mad in the head to open shorts on Tlw in the beginnings of a huge turnaround.

Market reacted to Enq dismal results just like they have reacted to Tlw's stellar turnaround - loss v profit. Unlike Enq, Tlw are investing 250ml a year in increasing production, voila!!

A quick & dirty estimate for 2021

H1 after tax profit 93ml
Once-off profit on disposal -123ml
Once-off finance charge 60ml
Adj H1 after tax 30ml

H2 will have higher production and higher realised oil price so $100 ml after tax profit realistic for full year???

Positive FT comment and quote from Alex Smith (Investec) who was on the call this morning. All the media coverage I've seen has been positive. It was critical to show profitability for H1 and Tlw has done that.

January2 - if you stopped your obsession for the negative you would have spotted they received 500mln from Uganda sale, As I stated the last update of debt was 2.375bln and is now 2.3bln.

Last update debt was 2.375bln
January2 - what has changed is over the next three years self generated capital expenditure will increase production/cash to reduce debt to below 1.5mln which is the range Rahul wants it to be at 1-1.5mln.

Or maybe the ones that held from Stg2.15

I disagree - those estimates over 4 years is not impressive at all. At least 4 wells being drilled for 3 years results in an increase of 13-15kbpd ?? In addition, possibility of a second rig in 2022. Grossly under-estimated in my opinion.

Just remember what Rahul said on 14th July - "I am pleased to report that Tullow has made excellent operational AND financial progress in the first half of 2021".

The results for H1 were known at that point. So if he was referring to the re-financing only and the results for H1 were actually poor, it would be misleading to come out with a statement as above. I for one, will be very disappointed with management if the results are not good next wednesday. Don't forget the billions written off deferred expenditure (which is over time your cost of sales) - this should in theory make Tlw more profitable on paper along with the cost reduction exercise that is now complete. If we can't make a profit in H1 2021, when can we???

Not on this board you don't - only positive sentiments or you'll be arrested by the thought police!

Looks like all the news will be released on 15th :-

1. Half year results
2. Drilling Plans for Orinduik
3. Plans for Kenya.

So after 15th - nothing. You'd normally hope to see a flow of info, lets hope this is not to deflect from poor first half results.

Sorry, I just gave an opinion - fact!