Member Info for Supercooper

"Grasping" & "Straws" springs to mind. Your employers cannot be "Happy" with your performance

Happy
For months now your mantra was heavy dilution, fund raising, share issue - now that you have been proved wrong yet again, you dream up another scenario. I can only assume somebody is paying you. You can say you've increased your short, but it doesn't mean you have.

Tullow Oil 10 year strategy deliberately states they will commit 90% of its investments in coming years on its existing oilfields offshore West Africa - not much room for developing Kenya so my bet is a sale. Kenya need a fast track development before the market disappears so they will want a heavy hitter in pronto.

Don't worry, it shouldn't last too long

Anton, that would have been the once-off Uganda sale (500mln) but leaving that aside, when Les was asked about the 800mln cash he said it was only there to see how the bond refi transpired. So they may be in a strong position to negotiate with the holders as you say. However, the longer this goes on the more the perception will be that there is a problem, and therefore would be investors will hold off. So the SP will see no significant increase until there is a positive outcome.

But if they have 200mln fcf this year there must be 85mln a month going out?

Can't see any logical reason to sell Jubilee/Ten unless you were shutting up shop. What benefit is there in eliminating all debt? The majority of companies operate with a certain level of debt - Tlw think 1-1.5bln is about right. Ghana is the cash cow that can sustain some level of exploration into the future and provide profit. That's what the strategy is based on. The idea that the BOD were somehow overly cautious by not selling Ghana is a joke.

I see old news being resurrected about Kenya giving a deadline of 31/12/21 for Tlw to submit a viable development plan. Interesting that the strategy allocates 90% of future capex to West african assets (Ghana/Cote D'Ivore) over the next 10 years. I would think that discussions with possible buyers is happening in parallel - can't believe the Kenyan government have the patience for Tlw to start looking for a buyer next year. What are peoples thoughts on scenarios for Kenya?

In the overall scheme of things any new lockdowns in Europe will be temporary as vaccinations are set to increase substantially for Quarter 2. It will be a much different picture by end of June,

Except of course they'll be pumping 70-80kbopd of black stuff!!!!

Happy, If that was the case they would be obliged to issue an RNS asap (like now) for such price sensitive info. A curious observation and I have not checked every single trade from 16:15 but after that time it looks like every trade (buy or sell) was done at the bid or offer price. That is not very usual so something strange going on????..............

Result of GVN and lowered expectations of the speed of economic recovery? The resolution of Refi will not have the massive affect on the SP some posters think it will. Kenya would need to be resolved by a substantial farm down and perhaps a carried cost for 15-20% TLW interest as potential game-changer but that's unlikely. Other than that, nothing to drive the SP to 1.00 + in the near term but will be reached in time. All imho

I thought that at 140p - fat lot of good that attitude did me. Anyway it is what it is. Tlw will recover but not as quick as some nutcases think. 18 month time frame needed and a bit of luck with the oil price. Not very fashionable in this wham bang thank you ma'am world but there you go..............

Judging by yesterdays SP performance we will be lucky to hold over 50p next week. Most commentators have taken for granted Opec+ will hold status Quo on April 1st. We'll see...........

Only relevant if you are a day trader - temporary disruption and affect on Poo

Erh... a profitable company and capital gains??

Happyinvestor,
You're short so your perspective will be negative which is fine. Thankfully you have now accepted what everyone was telling you - there is no plan for a rights issue. So now you are finding new negatives to support your stance. Tullow is heavily geared to oil price and so your target of 30p would need one hell of an crash in Poo to get us there. The same oil price that you say you are long on. 2021 is a transition year for Tlwand most investors buy the future story not the present one (normally too late then). I expect a deal to be done in Kenya with hopefully a substantial farm down and further cash to reduce debt this year. Good luck with your short (and long).

Not long before we go blue !!

Happyinvestor,
Agree with you about the Suriname result - how anyone can put a positive spin on a complete duster is a mystery. Even Rahul couldn't believe somebody asked was the result a positve or negative?? Now for your short target, So you are long on oil and have now shorted TLW to 30p. As you know, the Tullow plan is based on $45 2021 and $55 thereafter. You say Tlw is @mired in debt @ 2.4bln yet the appropriate level of Debt is 1-1.5bln with a clear path of production increase to get ther over the next two years. This is dependent on the Oil price stabilising at current or higher prices - an angle you say you have backed??? How does that work?

Just gone blue and shows the news was out yesterday for those in the know. Still, shows how far TLW has come - 56p after a duster.