Member Info for Supercooper

Oil, if you held HBR at the beginning of this year, as of today you would be in the same position as if you held Tlw at the beginning of the year. Where is your evidence of Tlw being shorted other than the price drifting lower. It is lack of demand for medium cap oilers that has pegged share prices back including HBR. Sentiment needs to change and it will when latest results are out...

There is no deadline for news of a preferred partner in Kenya. Only deadline is 31/12/21 for a finalised development plan - a draft development plan was submitted a number of months ago and I would think they have included any feedback from Gov by now. Tlw are on record as saying the process of farm down will be concluded next year.

Yes within reason, otherwise you give the impression your not in control.

67-69kbd in 2022 will be extremely disappointing given:-
1. We have the full year affect of 4 wells drilled
2. We have partial year affect of new wells drilled in 2022
3. Pre-emption increase included.

I would be expecting at least 75kbd production forecast

Reality is there is nothing to say about paying down debt other than from FCF which at the moment is 100mln per annum. Other than a windfall from Kenya, it will be a slow process. Increased production at $80 pb in 2022 and following years may accelerate the process. That's the price for self financing increased production

How soon and on what basis?

Its a long road to build trust again in a company and Rahul is doing it nicely. As expected, nothing startling but the big thing is certainty around forecasts and delivery on promises. Does seem like Kenya is progressing faster than I thought but a solid, self financed production increase profile into 2022 and beyond is the platform here.

We're getting the usual forecasts of multi digit %increase in TLW SP ahead of the update. Whilst I hope I'm wrong, I think it would take a major announcement next week to move the SP positively in any significant way. This based on the SP action over the last 6 weeks and associated volumes. I believe the biggest influence on the SP is the lack of institutional support where many have disowned the O&G sector in general. There will be a few that will put making money before a moral stance but all are under increasing pressure not to invest in the industry. At the very least TLW will need to demonstrate they are improving profitability even over the 1st half results. Whilst it is an operational update, TLW will virtually know the full year financial outcome now. I don't see any major announcement on Kenya other than "things are progressing and will be concluded next year..." type of comment. I think 47p-50p max post update.

Must have been on strike then when the OP was going up!!

LPD
Think you might be confusing Uganda with Kenya?

Not aware of any deadline to find a strategic partner, only revised plan which was December. The revised plan has obviously already been submitted to the Gov. Tlw is also quoted as saying finding a strategic partner will conclude next year.

Agreed BR,
I'm seriously evaluating why I own shares in a company where the share price movements in the last 5-6 weeks bear no relevance to fundamentals of the company/industry. It's just like betting on a horse. Tlw is no longer an exploration company, won't pay dividends for years and even finding a strategic partner for Kenya won't be finalised 'til next year. Meanwhile, some people are making money by controlling the SP. Tlw is drifting and will be taken out at lower levels by a private equity group if nothing else happens. Maybe that's the plan.......................

Tman,
I asked that question at the PI presentation in October and Rahul said current agreement (free gas) runs out end of 2022 at which point they will negotiate a price with Gov, but he also said it would be quite cheap and that they were not focused on this right now

Tman,
Think he's promoting Hathaway

Stephen,
You held over 3% not so long ago................?

Yes, me.

Slift,

Capex is an upfront "cash cost" and you are mistaken when you say the early years will need to pay it off. Capex is deferred expenditure that is amortised over the expected life of the asset and it is this yearly figure that will be deducted from profit. Your valuation of $300mln is one extreme just as $1.5bln is the other. Like in most things, somewhere in the middle is probably closer to reality

If I were Rahul, I'd put Jubilee in charge of negotiations - surely we'd get $4 billion for a 15% stake???

It looks like our 13% shareholder is slowly getting his wish i.e turning Tullow into an exclusively African focused oil company. Rahul has already stated Tlw is not an exploration company anymore - hence the clear lack of interest in our high potential acreage in Guyana. So incremental production increases is what will increase the share price with no prospect of a dividend and a new chairman who has built a career in developing an African business.

What are you talking about 3billion valuation? Tlw is valued (current share price) 700ml. Uganda is gone - get over it and stop repeating the same old rubbish. It's extremely boring....................