Member Info for Supercooper

Loss of 81m - what's stunning about that. Is Tlw ever going to turn a profit???

Co-ordinate ?

Like many on this board, I expect decent results on Wednesday. For me that would be 150m pre tax , before exceptionals (profit on sale of Equatorial Guinea etc and once off fees for refinancing). Not sure what affect the 76ml judgement has but it should be no surprise the SP is subdued with that and flat production forecast for 2022. We need to show tangible signs of recovery on Wednesday and not the usual excuses we've heard year after year.

Kosmos 2.5bln debt with 70k bopd production. Market cap 2.5 times that of TLW - stop talking through your arse

Not much to be happy about given the price innocent Ukranians will pay for this power crazed nuts aggression

Most of the debt is bonds at fixed (admittedly high) interest rates so rising interest rates irrelevant

The price sensitive info was announced in the trading statement - Tlw will have spent over 600mln in capex and the forecast production for 2022 is the same as 2021. That is the reason the price is dropping. The market is rightly sceptical of the Tlw recovery story until there is some tangible evidence. Based on their own forecasts for production in 2022 we are treading water.

Ok, I've had my rant over 2022 production and draw a line under it. March 9th might provide a surprise to the upside with profitability in focus. With the amount of capex and debt reduction through FCF my guess is that profits will be ahead of expectations showing a strong second half. If that is the case and the OP holds up, 2022 could see a P/E much lower than Tlw's peers. Lets hope so - GLA

Maybe the thing that's wrong with it is that Tlw forecast 75k before the pre-emption so its not within Tlw's expectations never mind mine!!!. Maybe you have more inside information than Tlw does??- maybe you have a better understanding of Ten declining production than Tlw does. I'm just just a poor investor trying to make sense of the RNS's just like any prospective investors

Slift,
What do you mean "nothing wrong with the forecasts" - 6 months ago Tlw predicting 75kpbd and now 55-61k. Unless there is some sort of unofficial deal with the bondholders and the 2022 guidance is indeed understated, then the new Tlw management is not in control

Oh right so you're saying Rahul is engaging in sleight of hand to fool the bondholders. Maybe if they were running a corner shop that could be appropriate. Anyway, the market takes forecasts seriously and that is why it has reacted the way it has.

Am I the only one who thinks something is seriously wrong with the Tlw if its guiding 55-61k bpd for 2022.
Extract from S&P Global july 2021....

" its latest trading statement, released earlier July 14, Tullow downgraded its 2021 production guidance to 55,000-61,000 b/d from its previous forecast of 60,000-66,000 b/d, reflecting the sale of its assets in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon to Panoro Energy. Tullow's working interest production averaged 61,200 b/d in the first half of the year.

But Dhir said there will be a reversal of this trend in 2022 as the "real effect" of its recent drilling work in Ghana will bear fruit. Production will recover quite significantly next year, close to 2020 levels, when it pumped 74,900 b/d, he added."

I'm not a de-ramper, like JMAX I'm a LTH but not blindly following Rahul - this needs explaining. I emailed TLW but no answer

Not sure how this was a great week for holders. Tlw 2021/2022 capex spend will be in excess of 600 mln just to keep production flat. I will hold for now but its beginning to sound like "live horse and you'll eat grass"

and don't be to fussy about a parachute.....

I disgree, there's nothing wrong in challenging rampers and there's quite a few here. JMAX is a LTH like me and I've listened to rubbish from both sides and I challenge a few myself. Nobody has the right to police this board...

Hope you're right Jeffrey - I'd take a fall back to 85 any day!!

Focus now on 2021 results and profitability as opposed to production and FCF. My gut feel given the FCF of 250mln in 2021 is that profits will be north of 200mln including exceptionals. Forward P/E 2022 is forecast to be around 5. Capex and debt repayment can only come from profits so should be good numbers just ahead of our re-entry into the Ftse 250. GLA

Happy,

I don't blame you denying that nonsensical suggestion but anybody can go back and check your posts. The oil price has saved most oilies in the last year BP up 40%, Shell up 35% Exxon up 60%. You don't have to be smart to be making money in oilies in the last year.

Oh Tlw up 110%

For those that don't recall Happy's advice to Tullow management when the SP was in the teens - only option is a fund raising to re-capitalise the company. So let's see how that would have worked - if Tlw had issued an additional 1.5bln shares (double the shares in issue) they would have raised $200 mln when the debt was $3bln. Wow and he expects to be taken seriously. Now Tullow is "boring" ha, ha you couldn't make this horses..t up :)

Not with Kenyatta coming to the end of his presidency - he won't want somebody else taking the credit on a development that hadn't moved in 10 years.