Member Info for Supercooper

Paul1828,

Are you making an assumption that 400mln shares are being sold into the market? And if you are, what basis have you got for that assumption. If there is (as some people have suggested) an overhang of 400mln shares, I would expect a share price well below 1p. The reality is, I think, institutions have held on to their shares for the long term. The market is not getting carried away with hype, and heavyweight investors will wait to see some proof of real revenue generating progress before risking their money on additonal shares, not 226k contract to test a product. There again, I could be wrong and we'll reach a valuation of 1-2 bln by year end.

Blueboy, agree entirely. The 4mln raised is a drop in the ocean for institutions and it was 2.5 times over subscribed.

They might beina better position if they took the gloves off and started the arbitration process. Over 2 years negotiating is a joke.....

Nappers,

I agree with your take on it. Paul1828, no need to get defensive about it. If its completely ruled out, our new CEO just spent the last 2 months "refining"the 5 year plan and the fund raise is still in it. As I said in my original post, it could well be a positive.

Page 11 of their 5 year plan with a timeline of FY26. Maybe we can just ignore anything that spoils our own narrative. If I was a psychologist, investor behaviour would be an interesting area of study. The reason it might not be so negative is that there would be an added incentive to get the SP higher ahead of any fund raising. Ooops! Was that me getting positive???

Though not neccessarily negative, what might muddy the waters is the 60mln fundraise pencilled in for FY 26. Retail investors rarely get a chance to participate in series b raises. Having said that, it certainly would put a rocket under ALRT progress. Any thoughts?

Aces

I agree at current SP if a deal is done with the Govt., KMR will be vulnerable to a takeover. Lower production has been a strategic move rather than poor management. The aim is to reduce costs and maintain sales by reducing stocks and thus lowering production requirement. I think the BOD are scared of commencing arbitration proceedings for whatever reason. If they did, it would surely concentrate minds.

Not sure what the new risk in doing business in Mozambique is, causing the reduction in SP, but I'm guessing the deferrment of dividend which had been giving a 8% return might be part of the answer!

Resolution - an arbitration process can take quite some time to come to a conclusion. If we continue to engage with the Govt. without the leverage of a live arbitration process, this could go on fron another 2.5 years.

After 2.5 years of so called talks, KMR should start the arbitration process and continue trying to get an agreement directly with the Govt. That way at least the clock starts ticking.......

Under that same historical cost convention, If an asset’s value drops significantly, an impairment charge is taken to reflect its net realizable value.All a bit of a mute point arguing about how that is presented in the accounts. It's done and dusted - take it up at the AGM.

Saga, I agree that to some extent it's a bit like "How long is a peice of string" but that is what the auditors are there for, to ensure the accounts give a "true and fair view". If there was no obligation to review balance sheet valuations, companies could inflate asset values to distort their position, giving a false view to shareholders.

They didn't have any choice - the carrying value of what essentially is capitalised expenditure, is reviewed annually through the audit process and at a time of product pricing being under so much pressure, the asset value has to also reduce. It's a book entry with no immediate implication for the financial viability of the company (such as affecting cashflow).

He only needs to get the share price to .0138 to be a millionaire, so not an onerous target for starters. Some posts on here talking of a near term re-rating to 6p is fantasy. He needs to stop the cash burn asap to improve the sp. Award of a contract is one thing but unless there is an upfront payment, cashflow could be under strain for many months to come.An element of comfort comes from the fact that developments in AI come at speed that perhaps we are not used to.

Add to those positives that demand for Ilmenite is forecast to grow 8% CAGR over the next 5 years and shows how crazy it is that Kenmare is trading at a 7 year low!!

Should've waited 'til Monday - looks like it will open sub 1.90

Other than gloating that you saved a few pounds by getting out early, I'm not sure what your motive is Opulent. The IA dispute is not having any impact on day to day operations and is not having any financial impact todate. The board is (rightly in my opinion) confident that arbitration will be successful if needed. Even if the dividend is cut by 50%, it will still be decent return. The sp will recover in time or a T/O will be the final outcome.

High chance, if that is the case, that arbitration will find in Kenmare's favour i.e. back to the original agreement without the new concessions that Kenmare offered in their proposal. You place your bets.......

Sold what was left of my holding first thing. Tlw as close to refinancing as they were two years ago and now looking for "alternative liability management". Drilling 5 new wells in 2026 and will be lucky to match 2025 production. Poor investment on my part - you win some you lose some. GLA, I won't be back here.

I was criticised for suggesting a Friday release of the update was to avoid media attention - well now we know.

"However given the risks associated with business performance, wider market conditions and the upcoming May 2026 bond maturity, Tullow is progressing alternative options with certain of its creditors, including an amend and extend exercise and other forms of liability management transactions.

2026 key guidance metrics

Group production

34-42 kboepd

Oil price assumption

$65/bbl

Capital expenditure

c.$200 million

Decommissioning

c.$25 million

Pre-financing cash flow1

c.$70-100 million"

They've also moved the goalposts by quoting "Pre financing cashflow". We're not stupid..............