Member Info for Supercooper

5 x 647k tranches sold in the last 24 hours. That explains some of the volume.

The back in rights at no cost is a clever way of retaining a 30% interest with no obligation. I assume this is to make refinancing easier. Re-entry into this project will be at Tlw's discretion with no liability to capex unless they choose. You could spin it that Tlw's original 50% stake has been reduced by 20% for $120mln. I'm sure if RD was still here, that's the way he would have rationalised it :)

JMAX, I'm no expert but taking account of natural depletion (and efforts to stem the losses) and 5 wells by end of 2026, I think we should be reaching 50k per day towards the end of 2026. It's just a guess...

JMAX, you're forgetting that there is a potential $200mln pa in extra FCF from renegotiating the lease on the Ten FPSO and other savings and that's at $65 a barrel. Add increased production in 2026 and perhaps a recovery in OP gives you the optimistic scenario.

Anton, its not whether refinancing is inbound, its what will the refinancing look like that is the real question. I agree though, having held a substantial short for many years, now would seem an unusual time to reduce unless you know something.

For doing the job he already gets well paid for. Tlw's underperformance means he'll only get 7k's worth of shares. Feeling a little of the pain all of us have to put up with.

It's not the present 2P reserves that are relevant to the SP. It's the exploration potential (if any) of the entire acreage that could be the game changer. If, as some believe, the only thing Tlw has is a rapidly depleting oil reserve in Ten and Jubilee, well the present SP is not outrageous. But then why commit to a drilling campaign of 20 wells and request a licence extension. It could be that there is new exploration potential in addition to Ten/Jubilee. That, I believe, is the only hope for a real SP recovery and is a real possibility that the 4D and OBN could support.

Interesting that our CEO didn't mention Richard by name in thanking "the team".

J Bond, if there was a revision of 2P resources in line with your 2bln, they'd be doing ok and would be in control of the asset. Anyway, the idea that any major might be interested in a tiddler like Tlw is unrealistic imho.

Nobull, the one thing you've got wrong is that you're still long in Tlw. With views like you have, you should really sell up :)

On the one hand you say refinancing will happen at the expense of growth but in the same breath raise the possibility of P2 revision of $2bln. It seems like a convoluted participation of an oiler when for somewhere just north of 250mln, they can take Tlw lock stock and barrel. Because of our debt level, everyone seems to think growth can't happen, but there are ways of pushing the company forward, not least of which is all share offers. Bondholders have dictated the last 5 years and maybe this could be a new era.

Nobull, any chance you could run the numbers past us on the D4E that you think will refinance $1 billion debt?

Antonvb, from memory I think we have had similar volumes in the past attributable to this phenomena. Getting back to your original post on this thread (meeting with the president of Ghana), it was encouraging to see the CEO getting up to speed quickly. But apart from ill health (which I wouldn't wish on anybody), why was our chairman not present - what was so urgent to prevent him from attending such a high level meeting in a country that now has our one and only asset. Probably sums up his tenure................

Btw, the big Ut was as a result of Triple Witching - no significance other than technical volatility in volume sometimes. Happens every three months.

There is no truth on future performance - only opinions.

Now all we need is a new chairman - he's been asleep at the wheel. Someone with skin in the game perhaps, not mentioning any names.

Yet you relentlessly post on an oil company board. Only you truly know why :)

For the record, there was one trade after hours of 500,000 reported as a buy @10.36 and three trades of 613,070 reported as sells @10.18. Can we stick to the facts pls.

It does look like the timing of the recent CEO appointment may hint at optimism on the refinancing . If it were very much in the balance, it would be a disastrous start to the new Tlw era, if he fails at his "near term priority" to put the Company on a long-term sustainable financial footing. What that might look like is anybody's guess and is an obvious risk (amongst others). As an aside, I assume that the FCF forecast is net of the annual prepayment on the 2026 bonds of 100mln?

The reality is if the OP was $100 and we were knocking out 80k bopd, we'd probably attract a better caliber of CEO - it isn't and we're not. He at least has experience in O & G and must be known to Mitch, as some have said. Some on here said it didn't matter if we had no CEO because RM was doing a great job. Interim this or temporary that (for 9 months) sends a bad message to the market. H1 production has been poor but that's more down to RD's "leadership". Let's not get too excited but also let's give him a chance.