Member Info for Supercooper

12 months ago the OP was @ $85 - I've said it many times, look at the SP graph of most small cap oilers and you will see the same pattern. Tlw's is a little worse because of the disastrous drilling programme. Btw, RD was sacked, he didn't quit.

Corruption in the LSE? Don't get me started...........

Because Jubilee/Ten have been mismanaged for 5 years and there is underlying potential of upgraded reserves with a proper approach and with the OP as it is, they would get it at rock bottom valuation.

Whilst I agree, at these OP levels, Tlw isn't alone in not making money but maybe they don't have the deteriorating production profile. Can't help thinking it is preparing to be taken over.

You're entitled to your beliefs but I'm not about to start teaching you basic financial analysis

Bluemoon, the only FCF that is relevant to measuring a company's performance is what is "generated" by business operations , not from downsizing the organisation. If you want to remain ignorant of that fact, feel free.

"Full year free cash flow guidance is now $400 million at $65/bbl, inclusive of both $380 million of disposal proceeds and c.$50 million of overdue gas payments in Ghana from 2024" - and some on here thought Richard tells it as it is. Well the same old spin is still alive and well with Tlw. The $380mln is from downsizing the business and the $50mln should have been 2024 FCF so there is actually a negative cashflow generated by the business.

Irrelevant who said what and when - worryingly if xxnjr's estimate is correct (no reason to think they are not), there is no improvement in production - if anything the downward trajectory continues. On the refinancing, I'm less worried as to whether it will materialize as opposed to what the terms will be. It looks like a new CEO will not be in place for months. The o/s tax arbitrations looks like Tlw wants to do a deal "on mutually acceptable terms" - I thought we didn't owe the tax according to Tlw. Not much to encourage new investors and hence the current SP.

No debt and no revenue - that's not really a company anymore is it?

If we could only get rid of Jubilee and TEN we would be left with a small debt pile

Xxnjr, I think PGee was referring to the timing of Jefferies downgrade (leading into the AGM).

Terms that Tlw has used frequently and I wonder does that stretch beyond a simple refinancing of debt. Is Tlw looking to consolidate shares and reduce the 1.5bln shares in circulation like a 1 for 5 (or10) swap? Just a thought......

Xxnjr, ever think of working for Tullow? Thanks for the info, and whilst my point was a general one given news flow would perhaps improve the low SP, looking back over the years, most of the news could only have been spin under RD.

JMAX, no worries - just exchange of opinions. Rampers and De-rampers don't bother me, but with better comms from Tlw we all would speculate a little less. Like for instance the spudding of the planned well in May - place your bets on whether we'll get a notification.

..and $300ml of the "debt pile"?

Gabon contributes zero FCF with a military coup resulting in an army dictator being "elected" President. High risk of compulsory purchase down the line with a lot less satisfactory terms. Not worth the risk. Tlw could easily get back to 60koepd for 2026 if the 4d does the business with debt under $1billion.

JMAX, they've been working on the refinancing for 18 months and there's 12 months before they would need to have it in place - hardly urgent. Tlw is on record as stating " The Directors have initiated a process to execute (not agree/negotiate) a holistic refinancing based on proposals received from banks". Looks to me as though it is an orderly refinancing of debt based on agreed terms (including sale of Gabon) as opposed to panic selling as you suggest.

Xxnjr, "We obviously have no intention of using Kosmos Energy Ltd.’s currency at the current stock price depressed levels, which was a view shared by our shareholders." You have to wonder why they engaged in talks in the first place if that was their view, but probably history now.

I'd say max 22-23p so not good. The thing with Kosmos is that if they try to resurrect interest, they've seen the market reaction to the idea already, and that may deter them

I'd agree about the takeover unless they appoint a CEO soon. I've suggested Seplat as a possible but anytime after 17th June Kosmos can make an offer.

A more realistic valuation would be on 2P + 2C reserves not on a transitory production guidance. Production fluctuates, I believe Gabon had 36ml barrels.