Member Info for Supercooper

Agreed JMAX, markets quick to price in downside risk. But the difference between implementing an already agreed refinancing proposal as opposed to negotiating an agreement in this current environment is huge and if it were true would be a major slice of luck for a change.

Agreed JMAX, markets quick to price in downside risk. But the difference between implementing an already agreed refinancing proposal as opposed to negotiating an agreement in this current environment is huge and if it were true would be a major slice of luck for a change.

One thing that caught my eye in the Full Year results doc was the following:- "The Directors have initiated a process to execute a holistic refinancing based on proposals received from banks". Admittedly, I'm looking for a glimmer of light - this possibly implies that a refinancing is agreed subject to certain conditions being met (perhaps the sale of certain assets) by 30th June)?? "Execute" and not "negotiate"

Hard to disagree with that view J B. For the moment, the OP is more resilient than I thought it would be, but the sheer incompetence of Trump and his entourage is scaring the hell out of financial markets.

Hi DB, I've been pretty open at being a LTH and I am certainly underwater with this holding. I believe the SP collapse is not all Tlw specific as evidenced by the graphs of most small/medium cap oilers. The concern is where the recovery will come from now that Tlw has become a one trick pony. Perhaps the 4d seismic or potentially high volume gas production could be a catalyst along with a sector re-rate.. But their statement 2 months ago regarding inorganic growth is BS and could be seen as misleading. I wouldn't rule out a renewal of Kos interest if for no other reason than to wrestle operatorship from Tlw given their dismal record. That would be a shame.

On the other hand DB, markets generally are ahead of the curve with such things and hence you get the " its already in the price" brigade particularly after a dramatic fall from $76-78. I still maintain its virtually impossible to predict the future price of oil given the number of moving parts.

Are you related to Donald Trump by any chance? Why have a board if you are only hearing views similar to yours?

All very sequential, and like a few on here you seem relaxed as to whether Tlw has a CEO or not. Well I think the market has shown its view of the instability of the company with contradictory statements like "The Group intends to set out a framework for capital returns and growth through inorganic opportunities following completion of the refinancing and appointment of a new CEO.". Where pray tell, is the cash for inorganic opportunities when its all gone to bring our debt down to$1bln. What strategy are we pursuing to enable growth other than sweating the assets we have left (a strategy that has failed miserably to date)?

With all due respect to Richard, the last thing this company needs is another bean counter at the helm. You have to wonder about the ability of the board overseeing this process. Not to mention our Non-exec RG still buying @14.4p - beggars belief.

Clearly there is not a long queue of applicants for the job. Not a good reflection and must be a drag on SP.

Whilst Kos backed out in December, the wording was to the effect, "not make an offer at this time". The 30th June seems to have been mentioned quite a lot by Tlw which would coincide with the expiry of 6 months regarding rule 2.8 so maybe there is something to it. Certainly a better SP to kick negotiations off with.

I think the language used implies no upfront cost to back in, but from that point they incur their share of development costs in accordance with their % stake. The term a "carried interest" would mean that their share of development costs are borne by the other parties.

So from here (assuming refinancing is achieved) Tlw's ability, on the back of 4d seismic and artificial lifting later in the year, to grow production and thus FCF is the only catalyst for SP growth. There does seem to be an intention to have dividends in the short/medium term, but probably dependent on the success or otherwise of those initiatives.

You're right. Personally I'd bite their arm off if there was an offer of 3p.

My understanding of this deal is that (assuming existing 100% stake) they have effectively sold 70% of their stake for $120mln with a residual entitlement to a 30% participation at a future development phase. Not the best outcome but they have managed to monetise some element of Kenya.

You're right JMAX, 15% of a small cap oiler is just not enough is it :)

Must admit, that took a lot longer than I thought it would and it should have been Happy Investor. What's going on?

You're the one that needs a bandage on your head.

"I think the predicament they're in is they can't close when this is in the low teens as it causes a massive price spike when even a small short closes." So what are they going to do? Wait until its 60p and then close? And btw my point was that 2-4% short interest is not high - the bs about shorts (on both sides) is boring and ill informed.

Take a look at the average short position over the last 15 years and you will see that except for a very short period it was never below 2%. You guys talk some s****e on here, you really do. How about some facts, instead of making it up as you go along.

You're right to celebrate it. You're in Tlw, they won't come very often :)