Member Info for Supercooper

You've got to hand it to Trump. He did say he'd get the oil price down. Unfortunately he's going to pan the American and world economies to deliver it . That's what you get when you elect an uneducated bully to power.

That's a brave prediction given the last 24 hours. If you're right, you truly are the King of Forecasters:)

It doesn't matter what is speculated on here (including me) , we'll find out by the 30th June. My two pennies worth? The delay in FID approval is down to brinkmanship on how much of the 50% stake the GoK was going to extract.

"Perhaps they will sell out for a nominal amount that reflect the commercial risks and realities of a potential project?" If this comes to pass, hardly bodes well for their upcoming licence round in September. On another matter, should kenya close out like many on here believe, what will a new CEO have at their disposal to turn things around. Much reduced FCF, the same geologists that managed a $1Bln drilling campaign that flatlined production, and a company that cannot be described as a "Pan African O&G company". Food for thought...

That was in the results last week - what's your point?

It was the part of the sentence "latter's failure to comply with whatever Kenya deem to be compliable" that I was referring to". In other words, GoK can't just make it up as they go along, but obviously if Tlw don't find a strategic partner or a company willing to take it off their hands, then they are bunched.

There would surely be protections in the PSC for companies otherwise a host country could deem whatever they like after a sizable find . Years of arbitration, court cases.....

Well clearly the only thing that will allay GoK's fears is the on-boarding of a strategic partner. How likely that is in the near term is anybody's guess but I wouldn't rule it out.

GG this statement" receiving and subsequently finalising an acceptable offer from a strategic partner thus enabling FDP approval" would seem to suggest the strategic partner would need to be in place before FDP approval would be forthcoming.

Richard mentioned 2027 as potentially first royalty receipt from Uganda.

The 7k gas is a red herring if you are comparing apples with apples.

Xxnjr, apologies. The bit I missed in the rns was this:-

" sale of Tullow's entire Gabonese portfolio of assets, representing c.10 kbopd of 2025 production guidance"

Why you would include production that is being sold in a 2025 forecast I don't know. It is a forecast and if for some reason it didn't complete, then you revise your forecast, surely?

Anyway I got it wrong and it puts a different complexion on 2025.

Now you're spinning a negative :)

2024 61k (including gas)

2025 50k-55k (including gas) 10k deducted from Gabon !!!

GG, Richard ruled himself out of the permanent role 1 minute into his presentation.

Apart from the fact that the results were better than I expected (including a $200mln w/o of capitalised exploration expenditure) it was a pleasant surprise for a number of reasons:-

1. Upfront Richard thanked shareholders for their support - can't remember that happening in the last 4 years.

2. I didn't have to unravel any spin that had been put on results, operations and future development.

3. Outlook was predicated on a range of OP assumptions ($70-80) and not an unrealistic $80 or $90 basis.

4. There's $109mln balance on capitalised exploration expenditure that puts a cap on any future w/o's.

5. Guidance of 50-55 Boepd was AFTER deducting Gabon which means Ghana production is guided at the same level as 2024.

So it looks like the path is clear for a new CEO to have a positive impact in building a strategy with a strengthening balance sheet and incremental 2p reserves increase. The missing part is how would Tlw fund any material inorganic growth which they have frequently mentioned. Well there is one answer to that..........

I think there is 0 chance of any takeover, never mind Kos attempting a second go at it. But I do think the next 9 months could be very interesting - selling now could be very costly.

Don't forget over 4 years we had a management consultant in charge focused on reducing debt, not on exploration or development. Maybe that wasn't a bad thing for that time, but not when things have stabilised and we badly need a strategy based on growth to be delivered by an experienced O&G professional.

Answering the first question in the Q&A session, Richard referred to the slide on Non-Core Assets which included Kenya - interesting classification.

Well Richard answered the question!!

Not a mention - does this imply Richard will move permanently into the role " I look forward to building on the strong foundations that have been laid by continuing to focus on delivering our transformative plans for the business in 2025 and beyond".