Member Info for Supercooper

Whether its high or low, Tlw's interest rate is fixed (admittedly at a relatively high 10.25% on 2026 bonds ).

Delonex Energy is the company Rahul founded back in 2012 and was active on Block 12A in Kenya along with Africa Oil. In 2019, a complaint was made to the Kenyan Compliance Advisor Ombudsman from locals in the Kerio Valley relating to

lack of information and stakeholder consultation, failure to address relevant project risks, breach of IFC Sustainability Framework and PS, and impacts on land, livelihoods, and the environment. The dispute has been going on for years but the case was finally closed on 24/12/24 - three weeks after Rahul "stepped down" as CEO.

Xxnjr,

We're probably on the wrong thread for having a discussion about Tlw but let's continue:). I think we agree on prospects in the absence of any contribution from Kenya, although I do hold out a little hope it could spring a surprise and join up all the dots. WIth regard to the January update, it mention capital returns and inorganic growth twice.

Now whatever about the look back on 2024 which clearly is Rahul's right to comment on, anything to do with 2025 is definitely the board's perspective in the absence of a new CEO. If I was on the board, I would be acutely aware of the need for a major reset and to put an end to over promising like for the last 4 years. A matter of days after the January update Rahul was let go, and the Board/new CEO are accountable for any expectation set out for 2025. I'm probably reading to much into it but I've got to cling on to something :) BTW "RI" = rights issue. Quite a popular topic for Tlw but nobody has a clue what it could look like with such a depressed SP.

Hi xxnjr,

If you are right and Kenya is worthless then the Tlw landscape looks very bleak. Based on forecast production/fcf and limited drilling activity for 2025, things are deteriorating and they have taken the bold step of firing their CEO. What can a new CEO do short/medium term that improves things? They also put forward the possibility of :-

1 Capital returns

2 Inorganic growth (presumably acquisitions)

3. Accelerated debt reduction to below $1bln

Any ideas how this particular circle is squared? Or is Tlw deliberately misleading shareholders? If you suggest a RI then could you put a little detail around that?

Their record on comms is abysmal but in this case they have given us the January trading statement and a further update on CEO (Rahul is replaced by CFO as interim CEO) - maybe there is nothing else to communicate right now.

Overall holding is slightly reduced - neither positive or negative as far as I can see

Xxnjr, I personally believe that RD was pushed and if that's the case he would have no control over staying on. The Kenyan Govt have spent a lot of time trying to extract money from the green funds that have been established, but it has had little tangible success. I find it hard to think that Kenya has zero value. I read that the 500mln barrels estimate could potentially be doubled with further exploration. I believe the best outcome would be for Tlw to sell up, retaining a small % stake.

Making the CFO interim CEO doesn't make sense - why not do that back in December? Just a lot of moving parts and we will have to wait to see how things develop. More to this than meets the eye imho.

Jxp, I don't pretend to get it right all the time unlike some. You really should read that last post of yours and reflect on the low self esteem you clearly have.

Jxp, I have never held out hope of a dividend or "doubling" my money. I also don't post on boards where I have no holdings. Why on earth are you posting on the Tlw board if you have no interest Long or Short. Trying to make yourself feel good by denigrating other investors?

No existential threat here to support your short Jx :) The debt was 2.8bln so its only half a mountain. Never mind, in 2 years time you might be proven right if you have bothered to read the rest of this thread. They sold non-core assets before and then refinanced so no need to scaremonger - most LTH's have been through much worse with Tlw.

Hi DB, yes you have mentioned this a few times. Two things :-

1. Issuing a further 1.5bln shares (yes double the amount in issue presently) would probably raise $180mln after fees. How would that reset Tlw.

2. Lets keep it simple - I produce 1000 barrels of oil for $75 a barrel, giving me $75000. I can produce 1500 barrels of oil at $50 a barrel giving me $75000. Where is the incentive to produce the extra 500 barrels?

JackG, I agree. A RI would need to be pitched at 14p or less, raising just $200mln less probably $20mln in fees. The problem is none of the solutions mentioned (as valid as they maybe) addresses all the strategic aims that Tlw has put forward and only adds to the uncertainty created by events of the last 3 months. So in the short to medium term a meaningful SP recovery is not on the cards (sorry Anton) unless there is something else on the horizon and the only thing that could be is Kenya imho (unlikely as that is)

Tlw wants to accelerate debt reduction to under $1bln.

Going to set out a framework for inorganic growth

Going to set out a framework for shareholder returns

Annual FCF forecast $150mln

What sale of non-core assets could achieve a price to materially contribute to those aims? Maybe that's why we are at the price we are and what potential new CEO will be tempted by that landscape. Or is there something we are not being told?

Xxnjr, Not sure a lame duck CEO would have the credibility to solicit bids. Two big obstacles to attempting to flog the company would be Sammy and Azvalor who together own more than 29% of Tlw. Both are badly underwater and I believe may have been responsible for the abrupt end of KOS interest.

FDM, not sure even his buddies would trust RD to be involved in a T/O. Hopefully the board were in contact with a potential CEO before they pushed RD - maybe things are moving quickly?

This probably should have happened when they announced RD was "stepping down". It never works to keep a CEO on like that.

If you took that 60p prediction seriously that probably says enough

Careful Flavius, the tone of your post is bordering on pessimism

Antonvb, you're not the thought police on this board. Who do you think you are to shut down other peoples opinion just because they don't agree with you. I'll continue to post and say it as I see it thanks. If you think you have the right to continually ramp, get over yourself and respect others views.

Whilst RD is getting the brunt of our frustration with Tlw (and so he should), we should remember the board presided over this and believed the BS they were being fed. If they did give RD the push and finally took action, let's hope they have plan in place to create shareholder value for a change. At the moment it's difficult to see what can happen in the short/medium term.