Member Info for Supercooper

Summed up very nicely JB. We are sitting on very promising acreage in Cote D'Ivoire which could have been drilled anytime in the last two years but RD kept deferring. That appears to be the only possible catalyst unless Ghana take a leaf out of Angola's book and starts to actively support O&G E&P

So the possible rights issue scenario with the tax case disappears and we revert back to a rights issue needed to address debt. Its actually amusing at this stage. Reminds me of Happy Investor when the share price was 11p suggesting a rights issue to reduce debt of 2.8bln - it would have raised 100mln. All to frighten us PIs :)

4.5 years is more than enough to wait, but we're still waiting. You keep on believing that something will happen for no reason :)

That's not going to happen with a lame duck in charge - any positive developments will be on hold until a new CEO is in charge. If pressure was exerted by Sammy and Azvalor, then this was all very predictable and so I hope there is a plan to bring him/her on board pronto.

Its not all Tlw specific - the sector is not doing much and its down to a lack of investment demand. Coupled with that, Rahul's departure is a negative from a perception point of view. If he left of his own accord then he probably doesn't see a great future in the role. If he was pushed, senior figures connected with Tlw are not happy with the company performance. Getting a new CEO, putting together a new strategy and articulating that to the investment community is going to take time. Nothing new on the horizon and Rahul staying on board for however long - yawn!

Agreed Bullseye, we've seen what a risk averse, sustainability obsessed bean counter can do over 4.5 years. One thing steadying the ship which arguably he did, but quite another setting and implementing a growth strategy.

DB, I would remind you that not so long ago you were forecasting the OP to go below $70 and I said at the time it was futile to predict where it might go. Your posts show a certain disdain for PI's and their lack of detailed knowledge of how the industry works. Maybe just accept that some of us don't have the time to pursue a PHd in the workings of the LSE and all of its dark arts.

"in the mean time it is business as usual.” Well that's disappointing - Rahul extending his holiday?

NB, I didn't check your calculations but current run rate for oil is 55k per day with (I think) 10k from non Ghana so it's at least 8 years.

NB, If you are right and P2 reserves run out by 2028 then game over:) A few observations:-

1. Kenya is not really a cash guzzler atm - about $10mln pa for security

2. FCF for 2026 may be weighted to H2 but end of 2026 debt would be $700mln all things being equal. I'll ask you the same question I have asked others who continually raise the debt issue - what do you think is the optimum debt level or should it be eliminated altogether?

3. FCF is after financing costs and after the $100mln debt prepayment for bonds each year.

4. A rights issue as you indicate at present SP would raise $300mln with a huge dilution

I am assuming given your posts that you are not long in Tlw?

Nobull,

The scenario you paint is the one that we would be facing if RD had continued. Higher financing costs with no replacement of reserves due to lack of acquisitions/exploration. Whilst the interest rate will undoubted be higher on refinancing, the principle has gone down significantly. Tlw made $196mln AFTER financing costs for H1 24 but no anticipated growth. That is the fundamental problem to be tackled.

Bullseye,

These things are rarely done sequentially - my bet is they have somebody sounded out.

Agreed JB, the future is what matters and let's hope we are entering a growth phase that can be sustained through self generated cashflow. Very much dependent on the caliber of the new CEO.

J Bond, you were actually a bondholder for much of RD's reign so you would have a different perspective. Congratulations, in hindsight you got it spot on. But just for balance:-

1. A significant amount of debt reduction was from asset sales

2. After in excess of 25 wells and north of $1 billion, our production actually decreased over his time.

3. As a result, the carrying value of Jubilee/Ten was written down multiple times, and our FCF did not increase substantially.

4. Everybody associated with Tlw gained, except the shareholder.

5. He walked away (for nothing) from Namibia a matter of weeks before a giant discovery in a neighboring block - for the life of me I will never understand that decision.

6. Our only valuable exploration licence (Cote D'Ivoire) has not been farmed down and presumably is the reason drilling has been deferred multiple times.

7. Kenya is dead in the water (would like to be wrong)

I could go on, but at least part of his legacy will be the progress made on sustainability and off setting our carbon footprint by growing trees.

I agree though - he steadied the ship for 4.5 years.

They walked 3 weeks before the decision was communicated

There was some heavy speculative buying bringing the price up to 26p with an abrupt about turn from from our friends in Kosmos. Might have taken some by surprise and this is an opportunity to get out with least amount of damage. Something afoot anyway....

Well it matters to the market if he goes just before a potential $300 mln liability crystallises and then a potential bidder walks away.

Nobody knows for certain - the arbitration decision rules out any connection with RD's exit and a negative outcome on the tax. The question is what calibre of CEO can Tlw attract. Let's hope its not just another risk averse management consultant. Surely we are beyond that requirement now.

I believe (could be wrong) a significant portion of shares already awarded to Rahul vest only after completion of 5 years service. It may be part of a deal that he hangs around for another 6 months (smooth transition) until he reaches that milestone and he collects his cash. If that's the case then he was pushed.

If my hunch is correct, the reason Kosmos made a quick exit shortly after it was made public was that two or more significant shareholders made it known they were not interested. Under normal circumstances I would see Tlw vulnerable, but if I'm right, those same shareholders could block any move for Tlw, particularly any low ball offer.