Member Info for Supercooper

Joek1, agree 100%. Kosmos knew the debt and the debt profile , they also knew that the tax case would be decided before year end (as per Nov update). It was a clumsy, opportunistic move and once they saw the SP reaction they panicked and did an about turn, screwing up the Tlw sp as a result. Interesting to see how relations progress on Ghana in the future after this fiasco.

Hope they are as worried about their own debt pile:)

No company would get rid of their CEO so early on. It could be that Sammy and Azvalor weren't interested and let that be known. With more than 30% of the shares it would be gameover.

Poor judgement on Kosmos management side. Now a spell of selling from the speculators who were hoping to make a quick buck.

If it is so obviously a bad deal for Kosmos shareholders as the market implies, it doesn't say much for the Kosmos CEO does it? I suspect he sees the potential of another drilling campaign in Ghana, this time based on an up to date 4d seismic programme. There's also the Cote D'Ivoire blocks sandwiched between two massive fields. Also new opportunities in Ghana with a more supportive government. I agree with some posters on here that a deal is unlikely to satisfy both sets of shareholders. Main thing is to get a favorable decision on the tax case, and move on (probably as an independent)

Not only can a deal not be done, but market reaction is muted for the same reason. Nobody will speculate on a deal being done when there's a potential $300mln liability crystallising any time now. Lets hope this whole saga is not contrived.

All depends on the tax case outcome. Also, KOS SP is tanking again this afternoon so an all share offer (if it materialises) would be dependent on that. Can't see past 30p unless another bidder arrives - far more potential if Tlw is independent.

Most on here would know that I was no big fan of Rahul and his record but KOS was complicit in how Ghana was managed. Drilling campaign based on old seismic data not increasing production by one barrel a day and then deciding to do a 4d ahead of a new campaign. So now we should replace one incompetent CEO with another one?

Agreed JMAX - btw let's not fool ourselves that KOS is some White Knight here. Tlw, despite what the existing and new de-rampers will have you believe, is not on the brink of bankcruptcy. They continually misstate the level of debt and try to twist reality. KOS share price in June was in excess of $6 and now its $3. Something is not right at KOS but unfortunately the PI's won't decide whether any offer is successful. Personally I hope KOS walks - too much exposure to an over valued stock market and an over valued $ in a company whose SP performance has been abysmal.

DB,

You have me at a disadvantage most times because I don't understand a word of what you're saying. You say Ethel has a short and a long both at GBP 1. Then the share drops (for whatever reason) to GBP0.25 and the profit on the short is cancelled by the loss on the long. And your point is..............??

So its a done deal.

1. All major shareholders have been consulted and evidently know the terms of this non-existent offer.

2. Rahul is happy to turn down any exit package and resigns or was fired before an offer comes in.

3. Or the board are happy to fire the CEO ahead of a t/o even though an intention to make an offer hasn't even been confirmed.

4. All this ahead of the tax case decision.

But what would I know...............................

Scotpak,

1.4bln by year end as per the Nov update.

Nobull,

I was speaking generally as there are numerous doomsters predicting existential risks because of "looming" 2026 debt maturities. "Tullow has no uncovered debt maturities until May 2026 and is progressing a range of options to manage debt maturities and optimise the Group's capital structure." - taken from the November update. I would be surprised if Rahul has not been exploring options for the 2026 bonds throughout 2024.

By May 2026, Tlw's debt will be under 1 billion. It seems Tlw is the only oiler with debt and the only oiler that faces bankruptcy because of their inability to refinance in the space of 18months. This narrative is getting very tired. Obviously if the tax case goes against us then its a whole different ball game. Its the shareholders who will ultimately decide what happens if an offer is made and in particular Sammy and Azvalor who between them own more than 30%.

My own view is that Kosmos has been consistently overvalued compared to Tlw and had a very similar profile (and debt

levels). Any all share offer means that existing Tlw shareholders would also be exposed to an over-valued US stock market which, in the opinion of most commentators, will be due a significant correction once the euphoria of Trump's election has died down. Kosmos is being opportunistic and clearly knows the value of Tlw's assets.

I was going to attack you for being too conservative, but I let you off :)

60p by Easter you said...That must be the worst call ever!!!

Redacted,

Two things :-

1 "they both produce similar amounts of oil and they are both loaded up with debt." But with wildly different valuations, don't you think?

2. "But now that they have some detail they do not like what they have seen and are running for the hills and we are back to square one." The only real asset Tlw has is Ghana - Kosmos is joint owner so what is there to reveal??

Here's a better idea - a Tlw rights issue

Interesting what Sammy's take will be on this. I would have thought Seplat would be the prime candidate to make a move on Tlw, in line with Sammy's vision of a pan African oil company. Maybe Kosmos got in first.

FFS - they've only just got here.