Member Info for Supercooper

Realised 2024 oil price $76.4 v realised 2023 oil price $77.5

Much better than I expected. 2025 guidance remains at 50-55k and the sale is obviously the reason for the reduction v 2024. $55mln after tax pr0ofit "after" exploration write off of $213 mln (probably clearing the decks for the new CEO).

Xxnjr, that's for the already scheduled 2 wells for 2025 and thereafter the rig goes for lengthy maintenance. I was referring to any additional investment for Jubilee 2C reserves as Alpha suggested. I would expect a long lead time to hire any other rigs for such drilling.

SA, where does the rig come from to invest in 2c Jubilee reserves?

Seplat is offering $650mln Senior notes @9.125% so it will be interesting to see how successful it is. Incidentally our newest shareholder (Sustainable Capital) holds 10% of Seplat.

What needs to be reconciled out of all this is the specific statement in the 2025 outlook "The Group intends to set out a framework for capital returns and growth through inorganic opportunities following completion of the refinancing and appointment of a new CEO". We've at least 20% less revenue (and profit) and no options to raise money as has already been said. I take "inorganic growth" to mean purchasing existing production and at the same time keeping debt below 1bln. Where is the cash coming from??

Viewed in isolation, it's just shrinking the balance sheet, the opposite to their 2025 outlook of inorganic growth with a new CEO having a "platform and mandate for growth". No doubt this will come up tomorrow, but given media speculation, isn't an rns warranted?

Don't know when 25% of our 2025 production became non-core - let's hope they have a cunning plan

"You never know, the "very very preliminary talks" could have just amounted to KOS+TLW being in the same room at the same time as a result of a pre-arranged meeting to agree the 2025 work schedule" that's probably stretching it a bit xxnjr but you're right, more important things to think of such as:-

1. New CEO

2. Current/future production

3. Profitability

4. A Strategic reset

5. Refinancing

I don't expect a good reaction to Tuesday's release if history is anything to go by. I also don't expect any announcement of a new CEO, which is becoming a little concerning given the time that has elapsed.

What is Tlw's stake worth? Who knows. If you got a CEO in that is an experienced O&G professional, it could be significantly more than its carrying value now. Btw, judging by the current Kos SP that was a seriously expensive testing of the waters.

Gogadget, if it was Kos shareholders, that puts a huge question mark over Andy Inglis's judgement. My own view is that it was Tlw shareholders (Sammy/Azvalor) that put a stop to it seeing as they hold more than 30% of Tlw and who would have to be convinced of any takeover for it to be successful. JMAX, why didn't they hang around for the result of the case then?-

In spite of all this negativity, Kos engaged in (very preliminary) merger talks with Tlw. My own view is that there was an intervention that abruptly halted these talks

There's a big discrepancy between Ghana's 2025 outlook for production (jubilee to increase 7% & Ten 2%) compared to an overall decrease of 14% for Tullow's 2025 forecast. Maybe a soft target for incoming CEO or lousy forecasting from Ghana Energy Commission.

It all started to go pear shaped as soon as you sold out Ando :)

Harbour & BP are hardly small/mid cap now are they? Tlw hasn't done itself any favours over the last number of years but there is a sector downgrade that has taken place irrespective - not all Tlw specific.

Low volume = lack of demand. Again, across the sector, not just Tlw.

JMAX, you could ask that question of most small/mid cap oilers at the moment. The big boys don't speculate because they don't have to. They will get factual information before any of us and will have their positions before any of us. The odds are stacked against the PI and the PI will never have a significant affect on the SP.

Xxn, absolutely you could be right. We're all just speculating and it could go any way. But play your scenario through :-

1. The legal risk of licences expiring would have been known for some time yet has never been highlighted as a major risk in the annual report.

2 The length of time it has taken EPRA to review the FDP could be construed as playing for time and could easily be contested in court.

3. EPRA has recently been "encouraged" to submit an approved development plan to parliament by 30th June.

4.EPRA has been "encouraged" to make progress in finding a strategic partner for the project by the Minister for Petroleum.

It just doesn't have the feel of a major dispute about to break. On the contrary (imho) it feels like there is already an understanding of how this is going to play out.

The dots I'm talking about only started to appear since Nov '24 - your behind the times JMAX :). The only way of kicking Tlw out would be through a long legal battle. Hardly a good advertisement for their upcoming licensing round. Much better to have a positive announcement of a project ready for lift off.

JMAX, join up the dots. Its not whether Tlw will be involved - its about what's the price they get for their stake.