Member Info for Supercooper

Might help if we had an rns about a new CEO - at this rate it is getting close to 4 months since they sacked RD.

Kenya Govt is currently marketing a 10 block licensing round commencing Sept '25. If Lochichar is not viable economically as many on here say, then there's not much hope of any interest in other blocks where there has been no exploration whatsoever. There's also not much point in putting pressure on EPRA to approve the FDP by 30th June. Tlw are considering sale of non core assets not to eliminate debt but to get it below $1bln. Also it would fund inorganic growth which in turn would provide cashflow to commence dividends. This is what Tlw have said in their 2025 outlook. I know companies say lots of things, but with a new CEO to be appointed, it's kind of ambitious even before he/she starts, don't you think?

I'll put it to you. How would you view a Tlw with a $3.5 bln cost to develop Kenya and no revenue from it for 4-5 years. Doesn't add up. So only Gabon as a source of revenue. What is everyone's obsession with Tlw's debt. Few companies are debt free and it is a legitimate source of finance provided it is appropriate to the size of the company's revenue/profit/cashflow. Joining all the dots up I think Kenya gets sold.

Or you could join Gussy and set your alarm clock for 10p though you could end up in a self induced coma

I think we've seen the "Dump" for the last 2 months. This is probably the LSE working as normal - those in the know get to act first and the plebs follow when its too late.

Maverick, there is a common shareholder in Sammy as he holds 14% of Seplat through his company Petrolin. I don't recall any talk of takeovers. I think it would be more likely that a joint venture might happen between the two at some time in the future.

You need to take a look at your alarm - its 13p. Wouldn't want you having another false dawn.

TankerQ, thanks for that

Analysis of the vast majority of low/mid cap oilers that have exactly the same trajectory (apart from special situations). A new CEO with a O&G track record will improve things but its only when sentiment turns positive on the sector that the SP will recover. No existential situation here with hedging 60% production @$59. They're all coming out of the woodwork to gloat - LTH's, have patience.

Young Engineer, you haven't held shares in Tlw for 5 years (when you sold at the top) but find it necessary to come on here to say the company is rubbish and approaching fair value. We have TankerQ predicting lower prices 3 times but in a downtrend - hardly impressive. Your last point "has little future unless they discover or develop completely new fields" is garbage. How would they do that with no free cashflow. Get debt back to 5 billion??

Hey Tanker, Tlw 1h 2024 after tax profit $196mln. When are you and Anton getting hitched?? :)

Not if they were considering selling their stake:)

JMAX, getting rid of RD probably says Tlw didn't have the capability to get a deal done and they now have the opportunity to hire a CEO that does. Regarding desire, the SP should be a motivator with a bunch of raging shareholders.

JMAX, the Kenyan Govt has taken years to review the FDP and given themselves extensions as part of their negotiating tactics to get a big piece of the 50% Tlw were gifted by Total/AOI withdrawal.

Jeeze JMAX, you really are scaping the bottom of the barrel on that one. Those PSC's aren't drawn up by individual companies and passed over to somebody in admin to look over :) There are industry standard contracts that are shared to protect the sector in its entirety. I don't know (and nobody on this board knows) if anything will come of Kenya, but the most likely reason it will fail is if they can't get anybody interested in it, not some little paragraph slipped in just before the official signing.

Whilst I'm a bit more cautious than you Anton, I do believe Kenya could spring a surprise this year. I also believe things are not moving sequentially and that parallel talks will take place with potential strategic partners. Let's see....

Xxnjr, are you talking about direct feedback from shareholders as I didn't see any mention of that. It was probably the fact that the SP plummeted after the announcement. Even though they were preliminary discussions, there was nothing of significance that Kos wouldn't have known about Tlw and they still held talks??

Bluemoon, I don't believe it was speculative. Kosmo would have known all aspects of Tlw including the important financials before engaging with them. I believe it was shutdown by Sammy and Azvalor who would have to be on board for any t/o to be successful.

So tell us what that looks like, including the inferred rights issue.

TankerQ, you've fallen into the trap that you accuse others of and try to explain Tlw SP fall by Tlw specific issues. The O&G "Sector" has been sold off relentlessly since July 24. The tide will turn as it always does. Tlw made $196mln after tax profit for the 1h 24. Where there is money to be made the herd will eventually see it and follow it.