Member Info for Supercooper

Ah! Gunvor not Glencore - my mistake.

I thought I read somewhere that Glencore were ready to fund the purchase, but that might be wishful thinking. Can't find the article now, so.....................

Wouldn't be surprised to see an all share offer materialize from Seplat in the not too distant future. Sammy holds in excess of 10% and so does sustainable capital.

It doesn't change the maths - reduced the bonds and reduced cash in the bank. I doubt any FCF has been produced in 2025 and certainly nowhere near $100mln.

Maybe the annual prepayment of $100 mi ?

Odd

Don't forget Gabon was subject to a military coup in late '23 and the army appointed president at that time has been "elected" as president in 2025. Certainly there is a risk premium in conducting business in Gabon as a result and whilst it might not be the greatest of deals, it might suit if it smooths refinancing options.

Anton, no interim CEO is going to initiate new strategic paths ahead of the appointment of a new CEO. Richard is doing a good job on delivering already agreed initiatives as you have outlined and as CFO his priority is to deliver the refinancing. However, no one on this board has a clue about the future direction of Tlw though there is plenty of speculation (including me). A reset of the Tlw strategy needs to be agreed and then clearly articulated at a Capital Markets day. That will need to be received well by the markets and executed in accordance with the plan. A CEO is an important part of the success of a company (as we all know).

Agreed JMAX, getting the right person this time is the priority. However, 6 months is long enough if the right person is out there. With regard to scope, the chairman said the new CEO would have " a platform and mandate for growth". Another question that should be asked at the AGM - what do you mean by that? But as usual, the analysts/major shareholders play the game and don't rock the boat.

A little under 2 weeks until the AGM and if they haven't announced a new CEO before then, they need to face some serious questions - drifting with an interim CEO is not acceptable for this length of time, unless of course there's another Capricorn in the background. Nothing would surprise me with this BoDs.

"might re-enter"? - wait for the 10p you've been predicting

Agree with you Wreckit, I've been saying how important appointing a new CEO is and yet it has taken 5 months (and counting) for the board to hire somebody. Clearly there is no stampede by qualified O&G professionals to the interview room. I've said it before, this board looks to be as incompetent as the CEO they fired.

Xxnjr, thanks for that - very informative.

Something wrong with that RNs as they had 4.8% holding for a long time prior to this TR1

Fair point, but does it have to be a GNPC gas processing plant? Again, it is possibly still a positive over the life of a long term loan even if its 2/3 years out.

Wrt to refinancing, whilst the current OP and production is clearly pertinent to expected terms, far more important is both figures projected over the lifetime of the loan. This is where the 4D seismic may play a role in demonstrating Tlw's ability to increase production over that time period. 30th June does appear to have been a significant date for numerous events and I believe mid year was mentioned for a full interpretation of the results of the 4d survey. The prospect of significant additional gas being produced has been under discussion with GOG and third parties for some time. Kenya is not relevant as some have mentioned but it does give some chance of longer term income. Personally, I'm not bought in to any long term future there.

That's probably why the 26 bonds dropped 6% yesterday.

Lets agree to disagree...

Marcel, Gulf energy is by no means a supermajor so it will be interesting to see where they get the money and expertise from. Far from being a "strategic observer", whilst Tlw won't incur a backing in cost, they will certainly have to cough up at least $1.2bln to develop these fields. At todays value, Tlw will receive less than $100mln for 585 mln barrels. Is that realistic enough?

JMAX, my recollection is that Richard emphasised the potential of 2P reserves being increased on the back of new 4 D Seismic in the presentation and the Q&A afterwards. If nothing else there will now be a strategic focus on one asset and I can't see any reason to "attack" someone for stating this:)