Member Info for Supercooper

FCF is after financing the debt and the historic $100mln dlrs debt reduction Tlw was obliged to make on the bonds. Hedging is obviously constructed on the basis of what a company can afford (not just Tlw) so to look in hindsight when the OP is in the 60's and criticise Richard is somewhat churlish.

Has anyone got the slightest clue as to why RG keeps buying Tlw? Even a multi millionaire surely doesn't want to continually lose money on an investment when there are infinite alternatives. Director buys are usually positive for a SP - now it seems to be a sign the SP will be lower for Tlw when RG buys. Bizarre..

Because there's F*** all shorters?

Tman, that's my understanding too. Tlw said that interpretation and analysis would take up until mid year 2025.

I'm sure Sammy and Alzavor are chomping at the bit. Must admit, I'm tempted by it. :)

"Even if it does, a net debt balance that remains stubbornly high, with minimal liquidity means any debt restructuring would likely lead to massive equity dilution or wipe-out." So given the volumes and price action in the last 3 weeks, what's the market missing?

Let's not confuse legitimate profit taking with shorters - who in their right mind would short on a day like today. 35% increase in the SP in 2 weeks on the other hand, might encourage some that went long to bank some profit on a day when news would allow large volumes of sells to not drop the price significantly. The refinancing issue may also be putting a cap on further SP rise until resolved.

Or better still, 16.31

Predictable in hindsight. This is only the beginning unfortunately.

Reduced gas price does not apply to Ten or non-associated gas produced from Jubilee i.e only associated gas from Jubilee

With an expiry date of 2026 for both CI-524 and 803 it is, as I say, probably a moot point.

If there was no expectation of production increases over the extended period, the cost per barrel would prove uneconomical at current rates of decline. Regarding Cote D'Ivoire, a quote from the full year results in March - "We continue to assess options on the way forward for exploration licences CI-524 and CI-803". Didn't look at the annual report, but it would seem strange to contradict what Richard is saying in the press release. Either way, it's probably a moot point.

Agreed, but I would like to see some work done on their Cote D'Ivoire acreage - it seems they can't get any farm down which may tell its own story.

Can't see why Kos and Tlw would be keen to extend the licenses if they could only see declining production. There are two wells to incorporate into 2H '25 production which will give some indication of potential, although neither drill site will have been informed by the 4D seismic as per Tlw.

JMAX, they are selling an asset for $300mln that will contribute zilch (not one red cent) to FCF in 2025. Also its pretty clear why our friend Andy from Kosmos was talking to Tlw - he knew the upside potential of Ghana and thought he could put in an opportunistic bid with refinancing looming. Kosmos has their own (bigger) debt pile to sort out and my guess is that a couple of major Tlw shareholders told him where to go, along with his own shareholders.

Could be a large order being filled in the background - reported volume nothing spectacular to warrant 4-5% increase. We'll see after hours maybe.

Until the refinancing becomes clear, don't expect much in terms of SP appreciation. Few will take such a risk investing in a company at this juncture.

Lower gas price restricted to Jubilee associated gas. The piece regarding "A guaranteed reimbursement mechanism for gas sales" is significant - not much use producing gas if we're not getting paid for it, as we've seen.

Barnety, trades categorized as buys or sells is purely indicative. I've had many buys show up as sells and vica versa.

Two late trades 1,618,206 and 2,397,680 reported as sells but I'm pretty sure they were buy orders filled throughout the day and supporting the price when the OP was substantially down. If they were sells we would surely have been in the low 13's. Normally any excuse recently to mark Tlw down. Does somebody know something?