Member Info for Supercooper

The risk/reward on Tlw is out of kilter for me. I sold some first thing on results day and bought some CRH which has worked out well. No top ups for me.

Not far off the price RG paid for his 2,000,000 shares :)

JMAX,

I've never bought into the "burning shorters" theory. The big players never burn because what looks like a big gamble to us, is peanuts to them and in any case its not their own money.

Tlw are appointing a new CEO - the company would be foolish to put together a long term production forecast and indeed any SP forecast before any appointment. As I have said before, they are rudderless for the last 9 months "led" by a person that clearly wasn't offered the job and may well fear for his own job

As far as y/e debt level forecast is concerned, $1.6bln end of June with front loaded cash expenditure first six months. If they receive the 80 mln from Kenya + $300mln from Gabon that brings the debt to 1.2bln and a positive FCF for 2 H of 100mln would bring you to $1.1bln. Not saying it will happen because when has Tlw delivered as promised, but it is very possible.

Beza, that's the question nobody can answer. In a matter of days he's got a paper loss of 60k on 2,000,000 shares. Makes you wonder what they discuss at board meetings.

Nice touch xxnjr - wallowing in others misery

aventadorr,

rm said exactly the same thing at the full year results in march, and 6 months later here we are and still no ceo. i've been ******** about this for some time but many on here didn't see the need for a new ceo (with o&g experience). maybe they've changed their minds now.

Didn't think you'd take up my challenge :) As you will be well aware , Aidan Heavey founded Tullow and was with the company for 32 years. He was commander in chief and yes collectively the board takes responsibility (including McDade) but Heavey called the shots. Look, its clear what angle you're coming from (and where I'm coming from). I'm looking for a solution that doesn't include liquidation :)

Btw, Paul McDade spent 19 years as chief operations officer - it was Angus McGoss who was Exploration director - just saying..................

Xxnjr, Paul McDade became CEO when the debt was $4.6bln and he was CEO for two years. The biggest mistake he made was to mislead Dorothy on Guyana drilling. Dorothy, by the way a Non-Executive Director for the Court of Directors at the Bank of England, appointed an ex management consultant whose own company went bust. The intention was to safeguard her financier pals. Job well done because though you continue to refer to "massive debt", it isn't massive anymore. Production is down from 100k to 60k boepd in Jubilee - that's the problem not debt. If any oil company's production fell by that much, they would be in trouble. So my point is get a team in that know the territory, working on acreage that still has potential. I don't expect you to agree , but perhaps make an alternative positive scenario. There' a challenge for you!

I believe there is a way forward through some corporate activity - namely merge with AET. The advantages for Tlw is:-

1. You get a ready made former Tlw management team that know the Ghana acerage like the back of their hand.

2. Additiional FCF with little or no debt take on.

3. New exploration acreage in Angola with further opportunities

4. At long last replace the bean counters with oil men/women that have operational and strategic expertise in O & G

5. A management team that could drive production up in Ghana and persue opportunites in Angola with any additional FCF from production increases.

6. Better proposition for refinancing.

For AET:-

1. Management team have something to prove from their time at Tlw.

2. Paul McDade lost his way in far flung exploration in Guyana - could redeem himself before retirement.

3. AET is early stage Oil company - this could speed up growth if they can get Ghana production singing again.

4. They know the environment in Africa and are proven deal makers.

I just think this is a good fit and I've been saying for 6 months that we need O&G expertise running the company - enough counting of beans.

Or why people with no financial interest in Tlw are habitual posters on here :)

Anton, I get that and at this price it would probably be a mug punters move to sell now. I did offload some (but enough) first thing on wednesday @14.2 but unless RG has a divorce coming up, I'll stick with the remaining holding I have and hope for a recovery. Risk/reward here is completely out of kilter though.

Beginning to wonder is RG sane. What is going on in his mind? There are so many investing opportunities out there but he chooses to double down on Tlw. It just doesn't make any sense.

No point in averaging down unless he sees a significant SP appreciation in the future.

Cue RG buys another 200k

With those results and a lifting being pushed into 2026, don't see how they maintain a $1.1 bln debt by eoy. "Tullow remains focused on further deleveraging" - maybe that's the clue.

How about Tlw gets through the refinancing, a 1 for 5 share reduction and then an all share offer for AET bringing Paul McDade back to be CEO of new combination. He does seem to have seen the light in how to run an oil company like Afentra. Just musing..........................

Persiantrader, you're an idiot - anybody that isn't 100% ramping is a JMAX account? Embarrassing...........................