Member Info for Supercooper

Don't believe anyone is keeping this down - supply and demand. Based on the volumes in the last 6 weeks there is no demand hence the SP

A few things spring to mind regarding development of Kenya:-

1. From a Kenyan Govt point of view, the current licence holders don't have the financial clout (leaving minority Total energy aside) to get an early development delivered.
2. They have clearly been kept aware of the new plan that Tullow and partners are coming up with.
3. There are three ways Tullow could finance this development. A) Rights issue B)Increase debt C) Farm down or sell altogether
4. I don't believe A & B are runners - farming down or selling to a heavy hitter gives Tullow either finance for there reduced share of development costs or in the case of a sale would reduce debt close to their stated target of 1-1.5bln. I'm sure the latter option would be preferred by the Kenyan Govt. This also might tie in to the recent audit of resources being carried - a pre-requisite to a sale?

Together with a much improved H1 financial results, something big in Kenya is needed to move this SP north imho.

You're both wrong - you are mixing up free cash flow with Revenue, two completely different things. Tlw revenue is approx. $700mln on an average of $58 per barrel for the first half with $200mln operating cashflow.

"Ten production declining" - forecast production for 2022 will be close to 2019 i.e. 75k bpd . Derampers will focus on detailed negatives and ignore the very positive big picture. The rig (and possibly rigs) is contracted for 4 years for self financed production growth which at current oil price will be through profits

Only thing scheduled is half year results 15th September. Kenya update anytime in 2nd half of year.

Ok, there is only one explanation for the truly embarrassing quantity and quality of your texts - you are getting paid. Possibly for every 100 texts you get paid 1p???

BR,

Rahir has already indicated $2.3bln as at 30th June 2021 so no significant decrease. On the plus side if debt is not going up then it means we are self financing approx 250ml capex developing incremental increases in production

"implications for the speed of Tlw's share price recovery"

There are many views at to where the sp should be, usually " oil price is $xx and Tlw sp should be Pxx" without any substantial analysis. The fact is after such a 2 year period of change, it is extremely difficult to get beyond a gut feel for where the sp should be. Just look at what has happend to TLW in 2 years:-
1. Huge downgrade of future production
2. CEO and COO effectively fired
3. Shortly after this Oil Price crash
4. Over 2bln w/o of value of oil assets
5. 6 months looking for a new CEO
6. New management team
7. New strategic plan for the next 10 years
8. Reduced focus on pure exploration

The last point has implications for the speed of Tlw's share price. We've been "maturing" prospects on our acreage for nearly 2 years now and still to announcement of any definite drilling. I agree with the strategy of focusing on developing existing low risk , production related drills, but the price to pay will be the length of time it takes for recovery in the SP. This recovery may be supported by a good set of results mid September, showing a decent profit after all this turmoil. Also a farm down in Kenya and an announcement of a new development plan will have some impact. A farm down in Orinduik and perhaps a carried cost of definite drills in 2022 would help.

The bottom line for me is I don't know what a reasonable valuation of Tullow is at the moment. I don't know why we went from 65p to 46 p in a month. Equally I didn't know why we went from 46p to 65p earlier. We may have a better understanding come Sept 15th

If oil price is maintained at current levels for the next 18 months Tlw revenue is set to exceed 1.75bln - without any exploration success provided costs are contained, profits alone would justify a doubling of the SP in the next 6-12 months. Markets are always forward looking...

The Interims will be far more important than tomorrows update (which clearly the market is not expecting too much from). If the half year results show a solid profit of at least 75ml than that would equate to about 5 times P/E ratio which would be a good case for a re-rate. Along with any news from Kenya/Guyana farm downs Q4 could be where the action is.

You're wasting your time jj.. :)

Yes, aware of that

Half year results needs to show a profit - something Tullow hasn't achieved in a number of years. if not, the market won't take kindly to it and I will certainly re-evaluate my investment.

OP at 60 - 70 dlrs
Write down of value of assets (reducing cost of sales for every barrel sold)
125ml annual cost savings

Any loss on sale of assets this year should be exceptional items

they would have to be buys for shorters to close their positions

I'd be amazed if we don't see some movement down on shorts by close of business given the price movement over yesterday and today

Lord Naz, this time last year Tlw was on its knees financially and is still not out of the woods with 2.4bln debt, but significant progress has been made. The target debt as per the strategy is 1.0-1.5 bln so unless something out of the blue happens, that will be the priority, so we will see.

Just my opinion, but share buybacks are as unlikely as a dividend in the next two years. The priority is debt reduction - the only reason the resolution was put forward was to allow the company to buyback shares when it sees fit to do so. Most companies routinely pass such a resolution every year.

Wow 6.9p!!!! that has got to be the lowest price in 20 years - you called it well my friend when all were looking bankruptcy. So why did you hold so long????????????

Does look like nothing price sensitive will be announced at the AGM