Member Info for Supercooper

Can't remember the last time a director paid for shares and its Mitchell Ingram ex Anadarko - so he knows Jubilee/ten inside out

Scrodingerscat,

1. I do not consider myself a message board police officer - but entitled to an opinion like you and everybody else.
2. Why would I be interested in anyone's valuation? Just in case, in the unlikely event, I've missed something (there, I can be as pompous as you)
3. I didn't offer a valuation so no need to counter with apples and oranges
4. The end

Scrodinger
Of course the game is rotten - it just gets a bit annoying when every .0001% move down is blamed on the mms/shorters. Nobody has given an explanation of what their valuation of Tullows is, yet we hear the same old drivel "Oil price is near $70 and the SP should be at least 90p"with no basis whatsoever. Let's live in the real world and if we want to attempt a valuation of TLW lets start off with -2.4bln of debt and work our way up.

I see the TLW SP has just been manipulated up for a change :)

Uinoil, Tullow directors have never used their own money to buy shares in the company. They prefer to award themselves bonus shares which has always been a bugbear of mine. TLW AGM's have traditionally not been the platform for releasing news though I hope I'm wrong on this occasion. With the huge write offs and cost cutting, half year performance should show a drastic improvement but when do we get an update? At least 2 months away.....

The fact is there is no volume (demand) at the moment and the SP is drifting. On these boards, every share that goes down is being "manipulated". Occidental will flog there share of Ghana for 0.5bln so unless there is a surprise in Kenya, what justification is there for this SP being suppressed??

Sunday Times reports that Aidan Heavey and Tom Hickey (Boru Energy) are in talks with Occidental regarding sale of their Ghana interests in Jubilee and Ten. I know it was speculated already but it seems to be getting legs - interesting dynamics ahead if sale goes through.

Another 1% closing - RNS?

Big Picture,

My understanding is the 2 bln in dispute relates to costs incurred by Tlw that can be offset against futre revenues for tax purposes, not cash owed to Tlw. If that is right that leaves a hole of 2bln in your calculations - I could be wrong...

At the very least I thought "Happy" would say its a nailed on rights issue to develop Kenya.......................

We are issuing 1.8 billions in bonds to repay existing bonds and rbl, not to develop Kenya.

If, as Rahul says, Tlw don't plan to sell any of the Kenya stake, I struggle to see how we can develop it saddled with 2.4 bln debt. On the other hand, Rahul has direct experience on these kinds of projects and by all accounts has been successful so I do have trust in him. Anybody any ideas on a scenario that could work?? Obviously further debt is one..............

Wouldn't hold my breath - the last time shorts reduced to nil it took two years from peak to zero.

My gut feel is he has no short interest in TLW and posting negative stuff is a part of his job. I think he benefits from analysis from his employers who do the shorting.............

Kilman,
Not sure I disagree with much of what you say except the cash crunch has always been the repayment of the bonds and not Tullows ability to generate FCF for capex -they forecast around 200mln-350mln for 2021 on one of the calls. But lets agree to differ.....Hey, the uncertainty around financing will disappear (even at a much higher cost)

Kilman, thats what I said - after the 800mln was taken into account. If they paid the bonds with the cash they would still have 2.4bln debt.

JJ
They had net 2.4bln debt before the new bond with 800mln cash which was left there pending the outcome of the bond negoiations - in other words they would pay off 2021/2022 bonds if neccessary. They have still got 2.4bln in debt after the new bonds are issued. If the bond issue was a failure it would be the 2025 bonds that would cause the problem.

JJ,
How does Tullow now have the cash to fund capex in the years to come? There is no additional cash from this bond issue. Only replacing one debt source with another. As I have said before, capex will be funded from free cashflow generated from operations.

The bond issuance is only replacing existing debt not to fund future capex/drilling - that will come from generated free cashflow. Tut tut...................

Happy,
Its a strategy not a bleedin multi year operational plan

Slift, what's your source given they will be drilling 4 development wells (at leats) a year for the next 4 years?