Member Info for Supercooper

I understand your view H Inv but the trigger for your scenario will be a completely unexpected outcome of the RBL negotiations. I would be really dumbfounded (and I have been before with TLW) if they had just submitted the plan and have sat on their hands waiting for an answer. There would have been informal contact since November that should give a degree of comfort for the company's announcements. However, as I say, if the lenders are not willing to play ball, all bets are off and that will be last chance saloon.

You're right Slift

They just let any junior admin person assure investors there is no rights issue planned.

Slift,
If you are suggesting IR in TLW operate as a stand alone section and reply directly to investor queries without passing them through senior management then you do not understand their function. Investor relations of companies are glorified post boxes and are there to ensure all investor queries are answered by senior management on a timely basis. Anything said by IR comes officially from the company.

Interesting conversation between the two of you getting down and dirty into the numbers but TLW are on record at least 4 times in answering direct queries from investors that they have no intention of a d4e or rights issue. "They would say that would'nt they"....... actually that would probably be an issue for the regulator if they deliberatley put out false and misleading market sensitive information.

Krakenoil, nothing that was'nt flagged months ago. The RBL extension causes some doubts about refinancing which I think the market is reacting to but other than that neutral rns. The only chance of a quick turnaround in SP is th Suriname drill - other than that, improving oil price only thing that will slowly drive SP improvement. We all have a certain level of risk we are happy to live with so you've made your choice and good luck to you.

At best a neutral update though market may concentrate on deferred RBL negotiations as a negative. Best we can hope for imo is maintaining 30+. Any opportunity to reduce price seems to be taken since cmd.

DTZ - agree with the general point about expectation levels for the 27th. Over the last number of years, TLW has never broken surprise news in these updates affecting the SP in a very positive way. Normally its either negative news or neutral. Rahul may have a different approach but I doubt it. I predict confirmation of the dire 2020 performance and "RBL progressing well...". Just before everybody jumps all over me, I too am a LTH but have had too many disappointments with this company to be optimistic that the update will miraculously shoot the SP north .

One suprise TLW could spring is if they farm down in Orinduik (stated intention) with a carry for the first 1 or 2 drills. This could bring forward drilling plans into 2021 instead of 2022 at no cost to TLW. I think the prospectivity of Orinduik is very high and it seems a shame to defer perhaps crystallising it's value.

There were 6 x 2.5ml shares sold yesterday and another one just now (my bet is delayed reporting making it show as a buy). That's what is keeping the price down if we need an explanation - overhang of sell orders imho

Is this the same Ghanain Govt that back tracked on gas offtake that caused lower production in the first place? The big question that was on everyones mind was "would Tullow go bust in the near future" and unfortunately for some the answer was an emphatic no since CMD. Now detractors are scrambling for other reasons for sp to go down. Let's see what happens.

Davstock, on numerous occasions now you got reassurance from Tlw about a rights issue so thanks for that as it was at one point my biggest fear. Anybody raising this again will have alterior motives. Looks like a slow elongated recovery given the market reaction to CMD although it might be too soon to write off a re-rating given the improved outlook. Interested to hear "no urgency" for another sale - possibly for the benefit of unsolicited approaches in the last number of months. Hope it can keep back into the 30's initially and move up from there.

Cohan59, I think there should have been a better SP recovery when it was clear Tlw wasn't on the brink of failure so when profit takers are completely out of the way there really should be a near term re-rate. Whether that happens or not is anybody's guess.

I didn't mean short term though the hedging atm for 2021 is not as robust as 2020. As I said I think it is a good investment and the biggest reveal on CMD was that there is a long term plan to prevent the company going bust and no immediate need for a fund raise.

Looks like TLW has become an oil price play apart from minmal exploration and incremental production increase by extending existing fields. Rahul did say to look on it as a "Private Equity takeover". Suriname drill is just a puire gamble for those looking for a short term SP spike. The interesting thing is that there are assumptions that the decline of oil demand will be aligned with a decline in supply. This will not neccessarily be the case - the oil majors are now looking to renewables for their future and exploration on a large scale will decline quicker imho. The smaller players (like TLW) could benefit from this timing anomaly increasing the Poo as a result of the transition to non fossil fuels. Either way I don't see near term price action but since CMD I think TLW is a good investment longer term.

tony2020 - And that's why I don't post much on these boards due to the inane replies that ignore the substance of an argument in order to score infantile points to make the poster feel good about themselves. 24k to an II is peanuts even if its a life changing sum for you.

Alot of posters talking about increased buying potential leading up to CMD. I doubt it....big institutions won't gamble on the outcome of CMD. They will wait to see what the long term strategy of TLW is. If the story is credible (I think it will be) then there is enough time for the II's to load up before year end ready for 2021. It will also give TLW a chance to clarify what they mean by a "more conservative capital structure", a term they have used repeatedly over the last number of months.

Remember, "chunky buys" of 100k costs 24 grand - hardly a significant amount.

They are hardly going to get into specifics ahead of CMD. A couple of issues on Kenya - latest reports talk about FID in 2022 and first production 2024. Wood McKensie is on record as saying the pipeline won't be commissioned until 2027. It looks like Kenya is the only candidate to get us close to another 500ml cash with a substantial farm down and ceding operatorship on the cards maybe leaving TLW with 15-20% at most. Still the possibilty of fund raising is a threat and may hold back the SP until clarified.

The money will be received and there might be a temporary couple of pence increase - not significant. Lets be realistic, the big institutions have deserted TLW because the past management could'nt be trusted. That takes a long time to rectify and in the meantime the green agenda gets louder. Near term they migh pull a rabbit out of the Kenya hat or get lucky in Suriname but as Rahul said "there's no silver bullet". This is still a massive gamble heavily dependent on a substantial rise in the Poo. I'm heavily long in Tlw but I'm not delusional. A rights issue hasn't arrived purely because of the current share price - they'd have to issue at least 3bln new shares for a reasonable cash call of approx 600ml!

Agree Young - the real risk of the 500ml was that Uganda would delay into next year for approval which would hav seriously increase the going concern issue. There is no risk that Total will back out or delay the funds.

Yes, something of a bonus should they strike. I thought I read they were also targeting a Santonian prospect (lies above cenomanian and Turonian layers) as well. Apache recently got a big find in the Santonian layer in Block 58.