Member Info for Sturm

@viable - TXP: I've added maybe 33% below 1 CAD. Once Coho & Cascadura are up and running, net profit is above 120 million USD - excluding liquids (maybe 25+ million). Then there's the proven oil and 20+ defined drilling targets.
In perspective, market cap is around 150 mio. USD. When red tape is gone, it's an easy 5 bagger IMO the following years. Patience and trust is needed though... cashflow will be low until Coho is online, and that's been promised for a long time.

If the ask was raised to 58 most of todays buys would be marked as sells.....
Just follow the trade price and give f.... all to red or blue screens.

They might not be clueless but they've made plenty mistakes, especially on the financial side. No need to put them on a pedestal.
I'm not proclaiming the end of PetroTal - I don't even know why you would suggest that. I'm long PetroTal; have been here for years and don't expect to sell a single share the next years.
I trust production will soon be up and running 100% again. As you say, oil is still there... I just prefer the 15 mio. more in netprofit for July NOW instead of years later.
SP is hurting now due to the drop in production, Burgrabens exit and the drop in the Brent price. Once we're back up in production, we'll be looking at a new SP level. Brent is steady above 100 and who'll remember Burgraben after Q2 earnings?

Sells vs buys is just a technical thing based on bid vs. ask. Closer to bid = sell, closer to ask = buy.
Focus on the Trade Prc instead of the colour painted by the system.
Notice also how a raised bid will sometimes make a trade be marked as a sell instead of a buy:
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
28-Jul-22 13:42:09 56.15 17,000 Sell* !56.00! 57.00 9,546 (Higher bid means it's a sell, hehe)
28-Jul-22 13:41:58 56.385 2,643 Buy* 55.00 57.00 1,490

You should sell if you don't care how they use OUR asset and handle OUR investment. We own PTAL and should care how it's managed.

What do you mean? It's not a random chart. Produced oil is fiscalized - it's an official proces and control and since it's tax they're not slacking and that's what the report shows.
PTAL can't wait with fiscalization - they can't store or move unfiscalized oil beyond their own storage, which is limited to 90K barrels. There's usually a few 0s in the report due to the flexibility from the Bretana storage. Oil to Brazil is fiscalized at Bretana by Perupetro. Petroperu (gotta love the names) fiscalize at pump station 1 (Saramuro) when oil enters the storage. So there might be some stored at anchored barges (though not enough to hold what should have been produced).
Best case, production is limited due to logistic issues. Worst case, they've blown a pump or have issues at the facility.
Of course the oil is not lost, but I'd rather have the production now (and sales soon) and not much later.
15 million delayed net profit from July isn't small potatoes.

Production and sales IS the same thing, since all oil produced will (eventually) be sold. If they can't sell what they produce due to lack of storage or barge capacity that's "just" bad planning and hence avoidable,
Is it better or worse than reduced/lost production from social issues? Not really, from a financial view.
Demand and price is high now - not producing is losing money and it's not like they can double production the next month and catch up. Of course crude still needs to be sold and high price matters most of all.
But it's not like we can send in an extra shift of workers and catch up like a regular factory - the production doesn't scale that way. That's where you go wrong IMO.
More storage at Bretana or leasing/buying barges might solve this. But it hasn't been an issue before and once ONP is online again distribution/sales will have no restrictions (at 10 USD less per barrel in netprofit, sadly).
Re. sales, we'll just have to hope they've emptied storage at pumpstations and send that straight to Brazil at these prices :)

Compare production with what they say in their latest update. So it's Petrotal information.
"...the Company is targeting an overall production range of 18,000 to 19,000 bopd for the third quarter."
Did you not read that update?
It's not impossible to catch up during the next 2 months, but they need to shift to a higher gear. And it would ofc. be better if they we're maxing out at 26K BOPD now.

Bad planning. However which way you want to turn or spin this, production lost (for whatever reason) equals lost (or at best, postponed) revenue. They're at half the guided level in July so I'm wondering if they'll be able to reach Q3 guidance.
But I guess you mean it's all according to plan... We'll see.
H1 results should be released August 25th (ish).

We got 7,497 barrels the 24th (so it's not a complete stop it seems, unless it was tapped from Bretana storage).
There's some catching up to do, to reach / "maintain production between 18,000 and 19,000 bopd with Brazilian exports increasing" as stated in their latest update. To catch up with June they need to do 35K BOPD the rest of July... Right now we're 250K barrels behind (15 mio. USD in net profit) in July.
They'll never willingly stop the production completely since it may break the pumps. Let's hope numbers improve the next days. 0's are not welcome :)

Link - you might have to refresh the browser to get the latest data.
https://www.perupetro.com.pe/wps/wcm/connect/corporativo/7318e1ef-aaa2-4c91-8313-7d2090cba5fa/Producci%C3%B3n+l%C3%ADquidos.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&liquidos
I don't think it's the "brotherhood with spears" this time. But since Iquitos is prio #1 and they fiscalize there, it's unlikely that production is running smooth and stockpiled somewhere. There's a limit to what they can produce and stock without fiscalization (3-4 days is my guess). So probably something else this time.

The true prophet might give us all an explanation why Petrotal has had 0 production in half this month? Not even any deliveries to iquitos refinery. I'd rather have PTAL update us on the production than have the market guess. Historically, many days without fiscalization = trouble.

From the fiscalization report it seems like production is unstable and below guidance. Hardly social issues. So I wonder what's going on. And what's happening with the Brazil route in July. Hope to see a huge inexplicable jump in the next few days :)

Smasher, IMHO once Coho and Cascadura (eventually...) is on stream and full power, fair price is probably in the 3.5 - 4£ range, just from liquids and gas. Timing....- impossible to say. (Even impossible to comment on, judged by the radiosilence from TXP and mr. Unbaaylievable).
So I'm hoping we get a "relief rally" hitting >£1 once Coho is online, and once Cascadura is online with the first well - we should hit £2. Investors have lost patience and/or found better alternatives - or simply need their cash for something else.... and with no buyers we have this odd share price... at a point where most LT holders have filled their boots.

Did TXP have the final EMA meeting and has the second RAR been answered completely? Up to 6 weeks (30 working days) from that last bit.

Indeed. It would be nice with some news this week, even a tweet with a picture of a completed pipeline would be awesome.
News of EIA.... minutes from the meeting - some kind of info would be nice.
I did buy another 10% Friday thinking that would be the last chance at this low price - short termers wanting out over the weekend and probably (wishful thinking I know) some news this week.
BTW: Those 2 women joining the board - who think they would join without doing their DD - to me, they look like women who doesn't want a stained CV.
Also - How likely is it TT (with 40+ GDP from O&G) doesn't approve an EIA, considering they sold the right to drill and produce from those lots?
Timeline is frustrating - but IMHO this will happen and EOY I'm hoping for good Cascadura progress.
Oil.... those wells might as well wait - it does look quite hard to make money with the tax-regime TT is punishing companies with.

Nice find @investor81
However, before y'all go into panic mode, check this out:
https://www.petroperu.com.pe/petroperu-aclara-que-tramo-trompeteros-saramuro-no-esta-bajo-su-jurisdiccion
Apparently it's not ONP: "the pipeline referred to is not PETROPERÚ's Norperuano Pipeline, but an industrial infrastructure that is part of Lot 8, in which our company does not have jurisdiction."
With the money piling up aimed at local people from #PTAL I hope they'll not spread the "strike". Anyways, as long as it's just ONP - who cares? Brazil is 10 dollars more per barrel in net profil. No hurry - I'd rather have more to Brazil.

@Investor81 - what's the source of this?

@viable: planned Brazil export is enough to grow Q3 production - from the update: "To accommodate sales availability, the Company expects to maintain production between 18,000 and 19,000 bopd with Brazilian exports increasing until the ongoing Northern Peruvian Pipeline (“ONP”) repairs are completed, which is expected by September 2022"
I like it!

I dont expect #PTAL to drop much further tbh. I picked up another 5% yesterday.
Just reread the latest update... and you'll see that it's oversold.
Or put in Brent, Chevron and #PTAL in the same graph: It's back "on par" with Brent and Chevron YTD - and what sane person can argue that #PTAL has "just" made the same progress as oil'ers in general in 2022? 2 record wells on stream, record sales to Brazil (and that will increase in July as per the update).

Oh, and Brent touching 100 again. At current market cap you would have thought oil was trading in the 60-70 range.
Market is a bit insane at the moment. My definition of financial insanity: Bet against a company with zero net debt and super strong cash flow... like PTAL. Insane investors disappear and the value will be revealed again :)