Member Info for Sturm

Even at OP 75 they'll generate around 200 mil. USD in 2023. Probably with 15% budgettet social downtime. So... the kids are scared and selling. Buffet is probably buying right now ;)

Investors obviously fear that the II's "knows" and something bad is coming for PTAL. Not very likely but enough to put the fear into some holders and it's a summer thin market and easily oversold. IMO II sell on macro fears. IMHO they'll regret that later. We will probably get a recession, but in many countries and most importantly US, changing gear from 6 to 4 isn't going to be bad. We're not going in reverse. We still have more open job positions than unemployed in many countries. And we still "suffer" from years of low capex in the industry and low supply.
We had 4-5 years (2011-2014) with oil consistently above 100 - 100 being "high" is just a lazy and false narrative. Regardless, 75 USD still makes #PTAL super profitable.

US june inflation was higher than expected and we'll likely get another nasty 0.75 raise. But the rate of inflation will drop from July and Fed will be singing a different tune next month (retail sales are lower in volume, used cars plummet and more people defaults on car loans).

4B - no - warrants may play a small role in the drop, keeping some investors from buying and that much dilution should also give some discount in any calculation/valuation. It's not about the X days of "production needed to pay" - but the permanent loss of ownership. And the dilution have just been too big TBH.
IMO SP drop is caused by:
1) Near exit of Burggraben (they've been pumbing the share in years, now dumping)
2) fear of recession (and China's silly CoVid lockdowns - wth!)
3) Expected increase in OPEC production
4) Low volume - it's summer?
But - US inflation will drop in july (maybe june if we're lucky, we'll know tomorrow) and then macro winds will change. (And gas is too xpensive because of refineries). So I don't believe in a long recession at all. Hence demand side will be strong. Biden will deplete the US SPR fairly quickly and OPEC will hardly be able to increase production much. At the same time, no matter the Ukraine conflict, Russia remains "country non grata" as long as Putin is in power, so we're not going to buy their oil and gas in the next decade, if we can avoid doing so. In other words, we're not going to have OP hit 75 anytime soon.
My base scenario for #PTAL is actually the 3p 5 year free cashflow of 1.7 billion and 1.1 billion potential return to shareholders. The last bit is not going to happen though, since I expect a fair bit will go to CAPEX in the new prospects. It's page 30 in the latest presentation and I think the oilprices lined up there are conservative. And I'm convinced it will be the 3P and not the 2P scenario we will see.

So I'm still a #PTAL bull, have been since we had <600 million shares in issue... despite all the f*ckups in the finance department and the giftshop attitude of II's it's still a world class asset and the production is formidable. Haven't sold a single share yet and not likely to do so in the next year.

"Mr. Zuniga-Pflucker’s total beneficial interest in the Company increases to 4,659,135 Common Shares, and he continues to hold 11,791,695 PSUs, convertible into Common Shares"
11.8 million PSUs.... come on. And it was on top of the 10 million he just exercised...
I guess the corrupt number of warrants is finally corrupting the SP.
It's gotta stop.

75 million outstanding investor/performance warrants is close to 9% dilution. Meaning when exercised, the share price will drop 9% and the future dividend per share will drop by 9%. So basically the first months production of every year goes to the warrant holders. Or using an alternative 5 year shareholder return potential (presentation p30), those warrants "cost" private investors 9% of $1.1 billion = 100 million USD over the next 5 years.
Those warrants should never have been issued under those terms. Too many, too low exercise price and not forced to be exercised at certain target price. And management is flooded in warrants aswell. It's a free lunch for II's and management - private investors are paying - and this is ONLY possible on those unregulated exchanges #PTAL is listed on. If *PTAL was listed in Scandinavia you would see repair emissions to private investors and more fair performance warrants.
Number of shares in 2018 was 538 million with no dilution pending.

https://tt.linkedin.com/in/dr-priya-marajh-frost-7ba4b8122
Fits nicely with the profile I was looking for. First... T&T resident on the board. Hope we'll have more next time the board changes.

With the obscene amounts of warrants I prefer dividends as well. Despite having to pay 42% in tax (vs. tax on the time of sale with share buybacks and hence less money compounding). But I have some losses that can diminish the tax bill the next year or 2. I dont know the exaxt rules for share buy backs @TSXV - but at forward P/E levels < 4 in O&G I'd much rather have share buybacks than dividends. 4-8 a mix, and with P/E above 8, every cent should be as dividend. At this price they'd be able to cut the number of shares in half in a few years. And we all know what that means to SP and future dividends :) All IMO ofc.

@dunder, Bev Smith - https://www.linkedin.com/in/beverley-smith/ - experience from T&T is outdated - 2004 - 2006.
Look at the CV of these guys for comparison (most of them would strengthen TXPs board significantly IMO).
https://ngc.co.tt/about/governance/board-of-directors/
BoD is too far from business and T&T action. TXP seems to be caught with the pants down every 2 months.

I just looked at the Board of Directors again. I don't know what those 8 people are doing except free lunching on shareholders? Also there's not a single T&T resident from what I can tell and noone has recent T&T O&G experience outside TXP and hence lack experience and connections to make things work and apply pressure where it makes a difference? Noone with T&T production and EIA experience? What (/whom) am I missing?

Due to the social unrest they did change their guidance - for production - while EBIT was pretty much status quo.
Q2 came in 7% above guidance. The Bayovar lifting was at record oil price for #PTAL. Export via Brazil were a record estimated 1.15 million barrels (12,600 bopd) and are expected to **further increase** in July 2022 - and it's the best sales channel (and I hope they keep scaling it; Brazil is 10 USD/barrel higher netprofit, so really it needs to be maxed out + cash and settlement is 8 months faster than ONP!
Q3 guidance is effectively 18.500 now: "To accommodate sales availability, the Company expects to maintain production between 18,000 and 19,000 bopd with Brazilian exports increasing until the ongoing Northern Peruvian Pipeline (“ONP”) repairs are completed, which is expected by September 2022". However, the revised guidance is just 16.600 (so that's 7-10 million USD more in netprofit in Q3).

I added more this week. I've added more than a dozen times - this time at the market "major investor" discount - who can say no to that?
I really want the 60+ million investor warrants to be gone before they begin buying back shares - obviously the best investment case/acquisition for PTAL is PTAL.

Just remember it's 12 dollars per boE when it's the gas part.

I'm guessing they "have" to release a RNS tomorrow - or at the very least give an update on twitter regarding Coho.
Deadline is broken. Update is needed. Enough said.

It's just incredible that they have massive ressources and a golden opportunity to "cash in" - but nothing happens.
Note also that major oil (Shell & BP) also reduce production. If anything, it's a testimony to this fact: Producing in T&T sucks. Tax suck. Bureaucracy stink. Employee competencies suck.
Chosing to increase in TT vs invest in other places seems to be a no-brainer for big oil. I hope T&T get their act together - it's like watching a car crash in slow motion. Where and when is the action taken to avoid the crash?

Once Coho is online I hope people wait until Cascadura is online before selling. I bet Cascadura will be less painfull with regards to delays. Having waited for Coho makes selling before Cascadura silly IMHO, share price spikes or not.

It might take a couple of weeks. I expect a production update mid July with Q2 data and 11H 10-days production numbers.
No need to worry a lot IMHO. They'll deliver, like always. Drilling/production is world class.

Whatever. Just look at what they acquire and maybe reflect a bit on that.
They actually do what they say. Regardless of SP dropping.

Shell has many other options, more attractive with regards to tax and more efficient (faster) bureaucracy.
Plus they've no use for oil, since they're committed to going green. Meaning they'd have to pay for 2 steaks and a sausage when all they want on the plate is the small potatoe. Of the total expected value in Ortoire, how much is what they want (i.e. gas). It's IMHO simply not interesting at all, unless we've got maybe 3-4 TCF proved. Price is going to be a whole other game at that point anyways.
If you want to see what they're buying (anything but oil) - just check out the news stream:
https://www.shell.com/investors/news-and-filings/media-releases.html

As I read it, they have paid 2% despite having a huge tax loss (kinda: Yeah, you're losing money bco huge investments - you will get that back once you're making a profit - in the meanwhile we're taking 2% in tax (like a royalty really).
Regardless, it's a huge tax asset. Huge, but will be depleted in a year or 2 since profit is double huge :D

I think this is what you're looking for? (Capex was also quite big in 2021 (80+ mio.), depreciation etc. is 20 mio USD or more).
Taxes: Peruvian law requires the Company to pay a 2% tax on gross revenue, which is booked as a deferred income tax asset and is recoverable once the prior net operating losses of approximately $276 million are exhausted. Due to prior net operating losses the Company does not anticipate having a significant tax liability for the next few years. At such time as there is a tax liability, the amounts pre-paid through the 2% payment will reduce the amount of future tax to be paid. Corporate tax rates for the Company’s license contracts in Peru are 32%.
Investor warrants should vest June 2023. I hope they consider using the profits for share buybacks to reduce dilution. Until they're gone I prefer dividend over share buybacks since buybacks favor warrant holders - AKA II's that got the warrants very cheap (substantially oversubscribed emission... wonder why?). Sometimes people forget that IIs also have the most to lose, so why should they get much too generous warrants in placings PIs are not allowed to participate in?).

According to PetroTal: Tax pools (2022 estimated) $280 Peru / $70 Canada.

That's been overlooked by many (as have the far too many warrants they have outstanding).
Inaugural dividend was in December 2019. That was a mistake. In generel, the production side of the business is world class while the financial side is mediocre. (Too early virgin dividend, not hedging vital production, excessive warrants to II's, bond too big, restricted cash not used for acquisitions just from the top of my mind). However, PetroTal remains absurdly cheap in this OP environment + reserve report is (prettty much) certain to increase a lot next couple of years, while they've got several huge (!) exploration options. And then there's the tax pool. But also social/ESG risks.

This is from the 2019 annual report (where we did get dividend):
The valuation allowance primarily relates to Canadian and Peruvian net operating loss carryforwards, which reduces the Company’s net deferred tax asset to an amount that will more likely than not be realized within the carryforward period. In Peru the tax loss carryforward related to Block 95 will expire in four years for a total of $144 million losses. In Canada non-capital losses can be carried forward for twenty years for a total of $47 million losses. For US losses of $3 million arising in taxable years ending in 2018 and later, there is generally no carryback period, and the carryover period starts with the taxable year following the loss and continues indefinitely.
The Company has a tax rate in each of the three license contracts of 32 percent; however, due to accumulated tax losses, the Company only expects to pay the two percent tax on revenue that is recoverable against any future tax payable. The balance of the two percent tax that is recoverable against any future tax payable at December 31, 2019 was $0.2 million (December 31, 2018: $0.1 million) and is included in other receivables.

With the Texas Freeport LNG terminal fire it sure would be nice if T&T could cut the red tape and get on with it. Idle LNG trains in this environment (and increasing prices in Europe) is just crazy.