Member Info for Sturm

Even for a micro economy like T&T, Coho is too small to matter (IMO). So I'm thinking - how much (as a provider/engineer) time would I need to be able to appear with a "qualified" report (now that Shell, NGC and TXP have signed of)? Can I drag this out beyond a month? That's probably the limit (but ofc. T&T got their own perception of time). I guess that would be this week, and we might just get a "we need new balls in the valve" news along the way, so the engineer in good faith and conscience (?) can send an extra invoice for checking the serial numbers again.
I'm certain TXP at some point have asked "when we've done all this, dear NGC/Minister/etc. can we turn the valve then" and received a clear "yes". And then some public servant with some kind of responsibility got scared and creative.
But I guess everything is down with Truss' plans. Hope some of you guys have hedged by buying it in CAD (I'm certainly glad I'm not trading in £).

Also this might be the cause of the production hickups (just a guess)
https://petroperu.com.pe/equipos-y-empresas-especializadas-se-suman-a-labores-de-limpieza
"From December 2021 to date, the ONP has suffered 11 attacks with more than 46 intentional cuts, generating contingencies that have impacts on communities and the environment. All these attacks have been confirmed and are being investigated by the National Police of Peru and the Public Ministry." (They need drones patrolling the pipeline in that area IMO).

Re. Petroperu - some related/background info in the text.
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-downgrades-petroperu-to-bb-maintains-rating-watch-negative-06-09-2022

5 days with 0 (fiscalized) production so far in September. No chance of reaching guided production now IMHO.
If it's "just" another "we don't have enough barges to keep up production"issue, then I really wonder... What are you doing to fix this known issue?

I wonder if we get another shot below 1 CAD /66p. It's certainly heading in that direction.
We need someone on the ground to take a pic or 2 once a week. What's going on, on those sites? (Cas and Coho).

Storage tanks are quite cheap to build and adds more flexibility. They'll earn costs fast - by allowing more production since just-in-time isn't an option:). 40-50K more would help a lot.
Any news on barges? Ideally we should have enough to avoid any delivery to ONP - with the projected growth in production they'll need to scale barging a lot.

Fighting a woman holding a broom, are you ;)? Beware the curses.
I am semi pessimistic about that coho connection (timing wise). In Norway, etc. I'm sure you would get a stamp quite fast since it's mainly a matter of checking pressure vs. specs for the parts (AFAIK and that's too little admittedly). However in TT I wonder if they're not taking the opportunity to prove their own worth by insisting on changing a valve ore two :/
At least Cascadura is "en route" and hopefully everything is pre-approved next time.

... weak oilprice and weak production numbers... ouch. Doesn't look like they've got the distribution/barges fixed yet.

"Following the abovementioned warrant exercises, the Company will have 59,875,687 and 1,603,440 Investor Warrants and Performance Warrants, respectively, outstanding."
Number of warrants is just a heavy burden/anchor for the SP. They'll be gone in 8-9 months (the investor warrants) - the potential number of management warrants is still appalling ("credit" goes do Urch I'm sure... when will he retire...).
There are currently 27,873,890 PSUs outstanding under the PRSU Plan.

He, would be fun to ask the Ombudsman for insight into this... who ordered that re-re-re-retesting?
http://www.ombudsman.gov.tt/

We probably need much higher oil price to avoid a reduction in guidance (60 million less EBITDA in 2022 if strip remains at this level). They're quite a bit behind on production in Q3; they might compensate with sales from ONP stocks to Brazil or similar "true-up" addition to sales, but Q3 looks weak vs. guided production and even weaker vs Q2.
They'll need to produce 19.8K BOPD the rest of the year to hit the guided average 15K BOPD. That's likely possible, with 2 fresh wells coming online (just) this year, but there's not a lot of room for social downtime or delays - or not having barges lined up as ducks.
BUT despite Q3 probably not coming in as hoped, PTAL of course remains quite cheap with lots more to come.
Next material news is likely a production update around October 12th, then news on 13H later that month. If we avoid tripping ducks, 12H should be online this year. Meaning best case IMO (with oil a tiny bit higher and 2 successfull wells and bond gone) we could be looking at 1 CAD/66 P.

Guys, I still think you're missing my point :)
60 mmcf @ 2,4 + 140 @ 6 >>> 200 mmcf @ 2,4
And right now TXP might be (at most) priced for 60 mmcf at 2,4.
So if they pull the 200 mmcf of @ 5 USD as average.... the models are f.cked. In a good way.
(I'll save the puns for another day).

Cascadura 2P Btax NPV10 ($MM) = 520.6 according to latest presentation = 215 mio USD (ish) after tax.
= 185 mio. £ vs the market cap: 198 mio. £

So.... up to now, the Cascadura prospect might have been priced in - at least when we were ATH. Based on 200 MMCF at 2.25ish.
I don't think people fully comprehend or appreciate or value TXP now after the potential is another: 140 of those 200 MMCF could be priced at 6-8 USD (less costs ofc) instead.
So... drill the development, prove 200 mmcf, give NGC a month of steady 200 MMCF production, then limit it to 60 MMCF and renegotiate the price when they're hooked on getting more for the LNG train, ammonia factories, etc.

Read again: "Achieved a new daily Company production record of 25,218 bopd on July 1, 2022" and...
"During July, the Company encountered barging delays that were compounded by the closure of the ONP, resulting in production constraints that lowered the average production to 5,700 bopd from July 7 until July 25."
"The Company estimated 2022 average production to be between 15,000 bopd and 16,000 bopd and the latest production forecast confirms the lower end of this range."
Production was 10.486 BOPD in July, not 2x.000.
And 14.818 BOPD in august, not 2x.000.
Really no reason to try to pump up the numbers.

If you read the Q2 2022 Financial and Operating Results you'll not see "well above 22K bopd". It's not what the production numbers say either. So what's the source of that claim?

Odds are the presentation will be boring and embarrassing. Without a RNS not many will trust mr. UnBaaylievables words.

Problem is not if Coho is online 31st of August or september 15th.
Problem is of course the usual lack of control and hence lack of credibility.
You really have a stomach of stone if you're not wondering what's going on, what has gone wrong and why don't they tell.
It's impossible to be satisfied. No wonder SP is dropping. And again: Spend 5 minutes and a SoMe post and problem is probably/hopefully gone. How much market cap has gone now....? it's an hourly wage I would be happy to take!
If they don't release something tomorrow morning they're really asking for trouble in IR.

It's TXP's own fault TBF. Spending 5 minutes to upload something on SoMe is too hard? Come on...

Yes - I'll be really surprised if we don't hit 1 CAD before EOY 2022 (that was my old target) = 66p.
With brent at these levels we should also break that level by a fair margin - and early if PTAL can deliver on the latest guidance.
2 CAD EOY 2023 if brent is sticky around 100 and production follows guidance - very probable IMO.

ONP maintenance is estimated to be completed in October 2022.
Brazil exports should be maxed regardless. Better choice since it's much higher netprofit and cash on delivery (not settlement 1 year later with additional fincancial costs).
So ONP should really be a just a backup for oil Brazil and Iquitos can't handle.
At least until PetroPeru up their game and give us FOB payment and a competitive price.