Member Info for Sturm

Fruit4brains - just as I called it:

"Navigating barging challenges. During July, the Company ***encountered barging delays*** that were compounded by the closure of the ONP, ***resulting in production constraints*** that lowered the average production to 5,700 bopd from July 7 until July 25. The Company has secured approximately 420,000 barrels of export barging capacity for August 2022 plus 60,000 barrels for the Iquitos Refinery which has allowed production to increase to 19,000 bopd since August 22, 2022. PetroTal continues to explore long term solutions to ensure appropriate barging capacity is available to accommodate higher oil production rates and to optimize logistics and barging fleet size for our Brazilian route."
Exactly why watching production matters. Delaying production delays sales and should be avoided when possible (eg with better buffers, barge storagee, etc.).

Don't comment on things you don't understand, like hedging and warrants.

You're just making a fool out of youself with the constant whining and pushing wrong "facts" - like claiming Urch is the CEO and production should be 4.2 mio. barrels this year.

And yes, it's possible to be bullish on a company and wanting to understand both the opportunities and threats.

Really nice to see Brazil working at that level. 1.1 million BRLs going that way with low distribution and 0 dilluent costs.
Numbers just underline how silly cheap #PTAL is, with a market cap of 425 mio. USD, 78 mio in cash and a fine net working capital.

I hope they somehow get rid of the 61 mio. warrants - maybe via a cashless exercise, 2 for 3ish. They should have been forced at max 48p (and they shouldn't have been handed out in that level in the first place). IMO that's the biggest restricting factor for the SP - can't help but wonder if the warrant holders are looking to grab an even bigger part of the company while PIs get f.cked again :/

Promising numbers out again. Probably just passed the 3 million barrels mark for 2022. August average now 13.6K
Nice share uptick on the back.
@Tobin - I'd rather wait till warrants are exercised next summer before starting buybacks :) 61 mio. investor warrants that doesn't need the extra premium - they'll also provide 11.5 mio. USD for distribution. I guess a mix is the most likely (dividend vs share buybacks).

Without dilution SP would now be >57 p instead of 40.
People thinking dilution shouldn't be avoided if possible....
"But where would CAPEX come from if not from dilution (and cashflow)"? 100 mio USD bond e.g.

As I've said before, you don't understand hedging, puts etc.
Stop whining about things you don't understand.
Go to school instead.

Absolutely a cash monster at these brent prices even with lower production. However I think we all (well 99% of us) can agree that the SP will be higher if they reach, and better still exceed, their guidance. It's also about future trust and confidence.

Anyone owning a calculator or just pen and paper would know guidance is 5.6 - 5.8 million. Expecting less is something you would if you dont know the case and the company. It also and explains why shareprice drops when production is lacking. And they're not ahead at this time.

Obviously it's impossible to explain to you why 45% dilution is worse than costs from hedging eg. via puts. You get to keep the upside. 99% on the board gets it. You get to be the 1%.

So a #PTAL forum is about sharing links on Columbia cave paintings, banana 4 brains?
Hedging was needed back in 2019 when debt was high and cashflow needed. Poor management dilluted shareholders back then bco. lack of hedging. This is old news. Like 99% of what you provide this BB with. Outdated news. Lack of knowledge. 3.2 million in 2022 when they guide much more? You're a joke. You dont understand the company and you contribute with nothing.

Must be clear to everyone that they need a tax reform.
https://guardian.co.tt/business/tt-investors-pump-millions-of-us-dollars-into-guyana-hotels-6.2.1534024.e7994ef650
Hopefully this year, however the boost Guyana sees will be a financial tidal wave hitting politicians that are not able to enable the same growth. Drop in production and investments going to Guyana - don't be the politician that doesn't see this.

Certainly a different board now than it was 8-9 months ago.
As they say, one rotten banana spoils the whole barrel.

Also NGC knows their own standards and norms. It's not like TXP doing what's smart, then what Shell wants and then what NGC wants with fresh safety calculations, approval of valves and all kind of gear etc. on a covid locked-down island with lack of competences (last the 1.4 million did something like that was 20 years ago and all the manuals were long forgotten).
Next time is different.... I pray!

It's both a risk reduction and a price event IMO. I thought Coho would be at least 10p (proof of concept) and matter more than the EIA. However, now that the EIA is here first... IDK if I think still it should give 10p - but the 2 combined? Should be more than 20%; but we'll see soon enough. People selling now... I don't mind - short term holders have to go at some point :) It's their loss.
Other small triggers will be NGC cashback for the pipeline, VAT and either one of those 2 - or a revised loan - will give us, I hope, an "announcement to drill". Not to mention cashcowdura online... So many triggers that I really don't get people swingtrading this; you'll easily be caught out of the market when a 10% trigger lands.

And where could you possibly invest for the same risk/reward ratio? I don't know a contender.

Dont forget that T&T is a small place with just 1.4 million people. Their domestic news flow is small and the usual suspects (aka politicians) are fewer in number. Hence also more sensitive/aware when it comes to news in the media. Any politician with just a semi-functioning brain will jump on the train, now news are positive and I bet they're a lot more responsive re. tax now.

Oil price sentiment (Iran, Aramcos "12 mio" + China Zerocovid) and slacking PetruPeru data doesn't help breake the trend. I hope we'll get a great production update soon and then the ER should send SP a lot higher. Still silly cheap if they can hit the guided levels.

ER in less than 10 days. That should eat any bearish formation anyone could possibly draw on the charts ;)

Indeed. Just be prepared for some hickups along the way :) It's Peru.
Manolo has done a great job on the political side and the track record on the drilling side is world class.
Export via Brazil should keep a hand under the production despite ONP and who knows what exploration will bring the next year or 2?

Maiden dividend was announced Dec. 2019 and paid in January 2020.

"Great management takes the guessing out of the future" Yeah well, if they'd only done that by hedging (since that's what it's about), we might not have 852,195,159 common shares now but the 612.646.000 shares we had back then (and we still have 60+ million warrants). So SP would now be 39% higher, i.e. 55.5 p instead of 40p.

You should think that management & board would also suffer from the high risk handling of the financial side and have their 1% (2019) dilluted now. If you know and read the ER's etc. you know the answer to that one.

Majors are busy going green. TBH they CBA with TT and the silly tax regime either.
And there are PI's gallore here. Meaning anyone trying to take advantage of a low P/E etc. will meet another reality (i.e. a higher SP) once the first 5% of shares have been acquired. You can't go to 20% here without moving the SP at least x2 IMHO. And it's not getting cheaper after that.

While I wish the SP to go through the roof (20 CAD would be nice), you got to ask yourself what 90-100 mio. USD in netback is going to be worth in 2024 (or maybe mid 2023 and forward - coho & cascadura GAS). What is the P/E on that? Equinor is trading around a P/E value of 7. TXP has to be cheaper than that (6?)
250p is around 650 mio. USD in market cap and a P/E of 6-7 - at least according to my napkin.
But... that's excluding liquids from Cascadura and any other production.
Once first gas is online from Cascadura and we get more data on liquids, we really should be around the 250p /4 CAD mark.
All IMO and according to my small napkin.