Member Info for Sturm

It's well worth listening to for shareholders. Not a lot new information, but confirms that we're heading in the right direction - at high speed.

Still believe that we're above 1 CAD when we get the Q4 update mid January btw. Production is looking strong, we have one more well coming online this year and I bet plans for capital return will be much more concrete when we have the Q4 update. Especially if we have news re. PetroPeru payments and hopefully ONP (incl. a new and better FOB/payment on delivery deal). Icing on the cake would be new, solid, fixed agreements on exploration and plans for upgrading Iquitos (not really able to handle the heavy oil from PTAL - hence the differential in price - and not in the volume we would want).

I do wonder a bit why they're aiming for 4 wells a year? Especially when you know you've got a dry season for a month or 2 where you might/might not/who knows have no real profit from bringing a flush well online. (Page 19, new presentation). A lot of extra CAPEX from pushing extra wells and EBITDA only grows a bit. I'd rather have the money back as a shareholder or (even better) invested in the exciting prospects they also have:
80 million extra CAPEX from 2 to 4 wells/year but only 9 million USD/year extra in free cash flow - that's a bit low for O&G IMHO.
Also since it's Peru, I don't hope they are serious about sourcing debt when OP is weak.... Been there, done that and got the dilution (warrants) as they say. Dont want to go there again. And I dont want share buybacks when they have this many warrants outstanding. Dividend for now, pls.
(But they're very welcome to approach the warrant holders and buy the warrants back at a fair price. Warrants should IMO have been converted to shares at lower share price; it's common practice with investor warrants).

Not sure what to think about this:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Trinidad-Asks-US-To-Allow-Gas-Imports-From-Venezuela.html

Best thing about buy/sell is that a buy becomes a sell if the ask is raised by 1p :)
Just ignore the colour of the trade. Only the Trade Prc matters.
Someone linked the definition on buy/sell a while back? It's a construct, and useless like Supe says.
Definitely some nice chunky trades today though!

I bet they're slacking on production and stacking idle barges to be ready to fiscalize and stock flush production from 13H.
Will be online very soon - usually that means a nice jump in SP.
Petroperú seems to be busy with new cuts/drills/sabotage to ONP :/ So no help from that side - which is not all bad, since Brazil just is better with faster cash and better price. ONP sales agreement ends December this year IIRC. Was it extended beyond that?

October presentation says 90 MMcf initial production (less 20%) and maybe another 30% in optimisation.. PLUS 2.250 Initial condensate capacity.
So 9.200 BOEPD net, of which around 2K are liquids. Plus optimisation.
Wether Royston-1 ST is before 1-2 development wells at Casca remains to be seen I think.
I also think they might surprise us with the speed of these things, given they've had a lot of time to plan next steps ;)

https://twitter.com/TouchstoneExp/status/1583492578082983936
Maybe this will kick it off ;)
Schachter "Catch the Energy" Conference Opens the Market Friday, October 21, 2022
Paul Baay will be presenting tomorrow, October 22nd at 2:30 p.m. MDT at the Schachter “Catch the Energy” Conference, which opened the market today on the TSX.

I'm not sure divi will come before 2025. Spending 150 mio. /year in capex with 2 rigs drilling isn't far fetched. At least if the government can match the pace with permits. Regardless - it's all just a matter of time. (And hopefully not too much or too fast "empire building").

Indeed. Can't bring Cascadura on fast enough - including those untested zones. Must have the highest probability of any exploration? Can maybe be turned into production wells at other depths? Not sure the current facility is able to handle it all, but that's a luxury problem I'd like to have. I'm really looking forward to the next update! What will the next drill be and when are we maxing out Cashcowdura?

TBH the Canadian "action" was one of the most surprising events I've seen. Yes, the market was down, and yes, London dipped the day before. But still? Makes no sense.
I'm thinking news of any kind will help a lot - money from VAT refund and pipeline sale to NGC should certainly open up some options for drilling.
Solid progress on Casca will be the road back to credibility for TXP and PB in particular, at least for me. Full Coho production (24K, not 20!) will help as well.

Don't forget we were at 70p when the "within days" statement was made and the rise started.
So we've in fairness gotten around 30% since then.
And... my guess is that Canada will lead the way. I know I would sell in UK and buy in Canada if I was a UK resident. A nice extra hedge since UK is sadly utterly f..ked over by brexit/isolationism, energy crisis/inflation, etc.

https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2022/09/22/low-water-level-in-amazon-river
Second time within a year? (Build more storage!). That will affect exports via Brazil - which is the only option apart from the small Iquitos refinery (1.400 ish BOPD) now that ONP is repeatedly being sabotaged by (probably) Aidecobap fans.
Sadly this leaves #PTAL way below guidance re. Q3 production. And also makes it unlikely that Q4 production targets can be achieved - so they'll probably have to reduce guidance again.
With OP at around 95 & 12.5k BOPD, they should still hit 250 million in EBITDA and +140 million in free cash flow annually.

2½ months - so I'm just going to repeat what I wrote a while back. Even if the pipeline is fine (which I assume it is), whoever is getting paid for doing the certification will find a few (meaningless) objections, arguing that it would be more safe (i.e. not only 99.99% but 99.991%) to replace a bolt here, and a valve there and use another lubricant over here - and pointing out that the tork on the bolts should be 154.4 and not 154.2. All this of course have to go up and down in the ministery, NGC. TXP and Shell. They might also be discussing if the gas is dry for all we know.
Also... I'm pretty sure that engineers would agree that if the valve is able to keep the gas from flowing and the pipeline has been tested, the valve can also be closed again if any problem from the mini-pipeline should arise.
And again: Stuart Young doesn't know what's happening in his office. Looks like people aren't there to actually do a job, but just to get paid.

Ah :) and I agree - no point in being blunt about this in the open. Better to twist their arms via contracts or use expats to the extent that's possible. TXP needs to be to steps ahead all the time to avoid the worst surprises (the extra "validation" being one IMHO normally avoidable nasty surprise).

It was minister Young who posted it on twitter as a response - so this time PB is not to blame :)
Young should know, since it's his office that's "responsible" for the latest delay (or so it seems at least).

It has always been fiscalized production, and most of the time we're also referring to it that day.
You remain clueless. And your post remains an poisoned gift of misinformation.
In your great wisdom you might provide us with a simple number: How much money have PTAL *so far* received for the oil that is right now waiting in ONP?

Bob, you're so clueless it hurts. A lot of misinformation in your post.
(And re. "Zero days" we're ofc. referring to fiscalized production - people following PTAL will know this - and how that works).

Why all the QQ and whining Bob? I'm just posting information & facts. You contribute with nothing but QQ and accusations (about me dumping) and at the same time you're selling and buying and pumping when holding.
If you don't understand why numbers from Petroperu matters, then that's your problem. Go back and read my post from August 1st - then wonder how I was able to predict close to word-by-word what #PTAL wrote in the Q2 ER.
That's about the same time you predicted great things would happen at the AGM.

Cf my post sep 22:
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/peru-indigenous-groups-block-river-amazon-after-oil-spill-2022-09-28/
So probably the reason why we've had 9 days of zero production in September so far. Sigh.
Q3 update (not ER) likely in 2 weeks. Going to be a very interesting update in light of the latest hick-ups.