Member Info for Sturm

Well of cash just keeps pumping :)
@Viable - the 1.500.000 barrels capacity translates into perhaps 75 barges @ 20.000 (in reality the number is probably higher; we know they have smaller barges, they probably have larger barges as well).
They've had 50+ days of ~consecutive barging, so that goes to prove that the number is > 50, since a round trip takes ~60 days now :) (and they're optimizing that, targeting 50 days).
We don't know if they're pumping at max capacity - I assume it's somewhat restrained now due to well work etc.; but it's hard to be unhappy with 18K+ BOPD. So right now (and until CPF is expanded) there's no need for ONP.... however, completely unconstrained I think the max output (pre 14H) is around 22K BOPD, while Brazil should be maxed out when production hits 18K.
So there might be a small surplus if they get all wells running and especially during the flush period from new wells (since their local storage isn't big enough to handle that). That surplus could go into ONP if Brazil is truly maxed out.
ONP should be first choice only, if/when Amazon suffers from low water levels. I'm thinking PetroPeru will sooner or later offer the same terms as the export route; namely FOB ONP 1 month forward price and with the same cost (so net profit/barrel remains the same, i.e. 5 dollar more per barrel!!).
As mentioned when they released their guidance, they're IMHO sandbagging their production guidance (and that's probably a good idea tbh). So I'll not be surprised if they raise the bar a bit at some point, later in/after Q2?
I'm wondering when 14H is online... And curious about any progress re. their other prospects (and possibly smaller 0-CAPEX acquisitions - if they want to use ONP again at some point, having lighter oil on production will be important to avoid diluents).
Q1 update should be imminent, so we will know more shortly.

If you doubt that Cascadura flows, you should IMHO exit asap. That could/would/should be detrimental to the share price. However, that scenario is highly unlikely. Royston 1x (even if it's not priced in) will have impact if it's a duster across all tested zones, but at least it should be temporary (like inflation, ha) - and not suppress the share price "beyond" Cascadura.

If your handle doesn't rhyme with Wonderbread, or overfed you can skip the below. However, if it does, you may want to consider the usefulness of using derogatory terms such as "twat" or "idiot" on this forum."

Name-calling can be a manifestation of different underlying psychological reasons. Here are some possible reasons:

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It is important to note that name-calling is not a healthy or effective way of communication and can often lead to negative consequences, such as damaged relationships or conflicts. It is essential to address the underlying psychological issues that may be contributing to this behavior and find more constructive ways to express emotions and communicate with others.

Why not 6 or 7?
Dundernoob, it's simple. Even at a P/E of 5, Cascadura & Coho is fully worth the current market cap. Which was the point of discussion: What happens if Royston 1X disappoints? Well, it's not priced in, as Ginmunger et. al. points out. I think everyone else (apart from you and alt. handles) understood that.

Please educate us, mighty Dunderhead. Cascadura is fixed income, once running, for years to come from the gas ressource alone. So when would you ever, if not under "bond" like terms, use P/E to value (part) of a company.
As a market economist I'll look forward to your educated explanation. I must admit I had a good laugh at your POV on doomed western currencies. I guess that happens before TXP gets to sell any oil from Royston, eh? Or perhaps, that topic is too advanced for you.

Coho + 1/3 of Cascadura (including fluids) is worth more (yes, more) than current market cap at a P/E of 5(ish).
If you believe Cascadura flows, there's a lot to come. If you don't - bark up another tree tbh.

Latest RNS (March 24th) states:
· We safely reached budgeted total depth of our Royston-1X sidetrack well on the Ortoire block on February 24, 2023. The well has been cased, and *******we expect to commence production testing in late March 2023*******
So they're testing. Havent moved the rig.
Why? Indications from wireline logs changed their plans? Other reasons? We don't know (and so far I haven't read any post from anyone starting with "I got real experience with this stuff and I can tell you that they have X options, which will take Z or Y days to complete"
So people speculate. Easier to herd cats than stopping PIs from guesstimating/fantasising.

Barging capacity is up to 1.500.000 barrels now. With sub-optimal routing @ 60 days, that's 25K BOPD capacity.
At optimised 50 days roundtrip, capacity (Brazil, Iquitos, maybe Pucallpa), that's 30.000 BOPD.
Might be a hickup here and there, with maintenance, etc. But it should be enough for current production and with flush production (flexing storage) from the next well.
We have no need for ONP at present production. Once they rethink their price and offer same terms (FOB & fast payment) as Brazil - then ONP can be considered IMO.

Production updated again, still 20,583 BOPD @ March 26th.
I think it's all going to Manaus (and Iquitos), but we'll know tomorrow (or in a few weeks). Manaus >> ONP, since payment is settled faster and the price is higher. IMO ONP is a waste of time and as a best case, a back up. PetroPeru needs to offer FOB (faster payment) and lower fees - when it's on par with Manaus, we can increase delivery (while still keeping Manaus happy).
Right now ONP works like a bond - we have this massive asset hanging, which fluctuates in value and we get the "Commodity price derivative (gain)/loss" and True up adjustments every quarter. Despite hedging (which also costs money) it's just annoying to bind that much production/cash in an often disrupted pipeline. It should be PetroPerus risk and responsibility, not PetroTals. (And it also nearly bankrupted PTAL, since... like SVB... the risk wasn't hedged at all when oil price plummeted...).
A nice few triggers: We have numbers out tomorrow, return policy update, a Q1 production update around April 10th (give or take some days) and also one more well coming online medio April. Going to be a splendid spring.

I hope they do 10% share buyback once warrants are gone, spend 1 cent/share/quarter in dividend, only drill 2-3 wells/year going forward @ bretana and drill Osheki & Lead D/E ASAP. But I guess we all have our wishes/ideas about where the cash & profit should go :)

Certainly a nice surprise with that video (despite the sound - might be an impro?). Best thing IMO - proud CEO flashing the site while 60 workers are making fast progress.
I also own a nice chunk of shares in a small equipment manufacturer (cement & vibration/recycling) - most of their videos are "look at our great new machine for costumer X". I like when people are proud of their big machines; thumbs up for that video & I hope they do more of that stuff. Btw: the site is huge!

Strong numbers just keep coming. Best period I've seen.
@ 20.902 BOPD they're making 25 million USD/month @ 78 brent, or 300.000.000 USD in Ebitda annualised or around 32 US cents/share.
Less Capex and tax... still a lot left for the private investor. Might be up for another nice day.

I guess Dunderhead and Joey1998 are the same person.
ClimbingWooster @Joey1998: Joey were you married to me once?
"Dunderheads" reply: No but I think Sturm may have been a (brief) girlfriend of mine in the past they way they worry for me!!

2 more days @ 17.000 added; now 20.300 BOPD in march - fabulous. They'll hit the first million barrels for 2023 in a few says; even at brent 75, that's 37 million USD in EBITDA in less than a quarter with production at 2/3 load - and despite financial sector & recession fears trying to FUD people and their monkeys.

@smasher - Re. Coho: They only produce at 25 - 30% capacity (from what I can tell), so no point even discussing if it's worth drilling another well. Right now they shouldn't even be discussing when they'll be discussing that - if they can't think of anything worthwhile to drill, having money in the bank is >> than having one more well (not) on production @ Coho.

3 more great days logged.
20,804 average first 19 days of March.
Never seen such a strong production before :) We've had at least 17K since February 25th!
Even at 75 Brent, that's nearly 18 million EBITDA since Feb 25th (annualised that's 282 million USD EBITDA).

It's going to be a bumpy couple of weeks. FED meeting in this and OPEC meeting early April. Oil demand usually doesnt drop much in a recession, but paper money think it will be decimated. At some point physical demand will correct the paper money; maybe OPEC will give them a wake-up call. We'll see. SP is going to tag along with brent for a few weeks IMO.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Head-Lower-As-Credit-Suisse-Shares-Plunge-By-60.html

ROFL Dunder, of course it's a good opportunity.
Gas alone from Coho (restricted) and 1/3 Cascadura is 70.000 * 2 net * 365 = > 51 million USD for a company with a market cap of 170 mio. USD - and that's with zero from the liquids and nothing from Royston, Legacy and all the prospects.
Seriously, I hope you're selling instead of QQing. Be a man, sell and move on. No need to QQ here when you can play your single broken QQ-record elsewhere.

I guess noone really knows. RNS says: "Once the drilling pad is completed at our
Cascadura C location, the drilling rig will be moved off the Royston location, and we will commence a
comprehensive testing program that is currently anticipated to begin in April. We will update the market
when results become available."
However, C pad is not ready until May. But they could move the rig regardless, to do testing as promised. I hope/assume they will test in April, as promised, since we have no new RNS stating otherwise.

PTAL has received partial payment for oil in ONP and remaining oil can be tapped from storage or pipes, if PeruPetro choose.
We don't need ONP. It's unreliable, expensive and simply put obsolete. 8 months from pipe to Talara is a joke anyways and going forward ONP should at best be a fall-back option.
Oil in ONP is also hedged. I suggest reading the ERs. A paper loss doesn't change the fact that PetroTal is de facto debt free and 100+ million USD will be returned to shareholders this year; more details will be known in 2 weeks.

Fantastic production update. No zeros and 20.672 BOPD in March for the first 15 days. Brent looks like it just might rebound the next days. Sorry (not sorry) for the swing traders who missed the barge ;)
The 1.5 million capacity under a 50 day round trip should mean that barges is no longer (at last) the bottleneck. Maybe they're not all lined up yet and the round trip has certainly not been optimised yet, but we're getting there!