Member Info for Sturm

Well it was the main shareholder who had those warrants. And he's been moving shares around companies. So he might as well keep them. Where could he get better yield? And certainly he has positioned himself for this planned change.

Anyways, with the drop in oil inventories I'm hoping for a small rebound today (not going to sell the next years so it really doesn't matter though).

I still think/guess that they've paused share buybacks bco. bids on lot 8. Pure guesswork though.

"Why is it dropping? Any idea?" - look at mr. Brent.

Warrants: IMV, major shareholding has been shuffling shares around and I can guarantee that it did not come as a surprise to him, that he himself exercised those warrants. He can now look forward to a yield of +13% (and an insane yield on the warrant price) and with his preemptive balancing I doubt that he'll be dumping shares on the free market. 1 million shares might sound like a lot, but it's a drop in the barrel when it comes to PTAL.

Well, they might even blend it with oil to Iquitos to increase daily delivery. It's capped at 2K BOPD since oil from Bretana is a bit to sour/acid + heavy, which hits the limit of the Iquitos refinery capacity. But that's just a guess, I'm not an oil engineer and not at all savvy enough to make an educated guess re. this.

Peru needs to spend around 1 billion (800 million some years ago) to update ONP, "it's ageing pipeline".

IIRC block 8 is light oil, but it's from memory and I haven't been able to find a source re. quality/API of lot 8.

Looks like block 8 might be under acquisition? Any hard news on this? I guess/hope/expect that it's light oil and hence will reduce costs when using ONP. So it also requires ONP to be reopened and new terms to be decided. With the liabilities (from the field development; it's a 6K++ field) they'll either have to pass liabilities to the seller or get a serious, serious discount.

Not a bad time to acquire assets. So I'm also wondering if this is the real reason behind the halt when it comes to share buybacks?

No news is supposed to be good news. We're now so close to June 30th that I would have expected a RNS re. a delay.

So... I've bought more. I don't really expect first gas June 30th (but who knows) but with all the progress on the site "it's real" and it's probably weeks now - less than 6 I hope.

New presentation up also. Amazing how the field just keeps growing.

BTW even at 75 Brent they'll have FCF after tax at around 100 million USD in 2023 at 19.500 BOPD - and that is AFTER 125 million Capex. 75 million of that Capex is growth. What does that mean? Well, 2024, with normal Capex (I hope they'll invest in growth)... is >> 150.000.000 USD in FCF after tax @19.500 BOPD.

Still silly cheap, especially if you think/guess/hope that Mr. Brent is going to be >> 75 in 2024.

They also have scheduled downtime (3 weeks) in August/September. But you can't run a 20K+ BOPD site without regular service + new wells coming online, old wells being reworked, new facilities being hooked up, etc. It's a huge site and liquids factory TBF.

Looks like production is running again, so it's a bit strange they haven't released an RNS or update - at least they did so the last time (IIRC). But they've sometimes been very slow when it comes to updating the market on social downtime, especially when hit.

I just received dividend. Less 25% tax in one account, less 15% in another.

Not yet. However the 2020 dividend was paid 22nd January - 2 days "delay".

So I'm guessing Monday or Tuesday at the latest.

It's fine that the warrants are gone. Uncertainty disappearing is good. And it's not "someone" - it's the owner of Meridian who exercised the warrants = major shareholder. So it's highly unlikely that they'll be sold on the free market (if at all) - and should not present an overhang for PIs.

It was a mistake to issue so many and the price was much to generous (and hence, in Manolo's words (IIRC), the capital raise was substantially oversubscribed. No wonder!

But at least they're now gone and #PTAL can begin buying the shares back and increase MY ownership percentage :)

Https://www.perupetro.com.pe/wps/wcm/connect/corporativo/7318e1ef-aaa2-4c91-8313-7d2090cba5fa/Producci%C3%B3n+l%C3%ADquidos.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&liquidos

Looks like production is (hopefully) back and undisrupted.

One more well incoming. 2 still not on pump (AFAIK)

Warrants gone. Finally.

Brent rising.

Dividend incoming.

I don't think they've been buying back shares during the disruption - we'll see - it's just a guess.

Volume is so small that it's not really true that "people are selling". It's minor adjustments from a few people.

Let's see some more volume and we'll know if people are selling or buying for "real money".

But it's due to lack of trust/(PB) that we're rangebound despite imminent production increase. I guess we need hard news to move the needle now. Hope & intentions isn't enough anymore - will take some quarters to rebuild trust. Cascadura end of June would be the perfect start. (BTW - that site is huge! for a company of TXPs size.).

I don't know if they're producing again, however:

https://www.latina.pe/noticias/latina-noticias/loreto-indigenas-liberan-a-tripulantes-retenidos-en-el-rio-puinahua

PTAL didn't participate in the negotiations. I'm sure we'll learn more in the coming days.

If it's solved so fast, it just goes to prove overall (IMV) that risk has been reduced with the social fund and their work. Fingers crossed - we'll see.

As long as the Twitter updates are just "progressing as planned, still expecting June 30th" it's not new information, shouldn't be SP sensitive and doesn't need to be RNS'd (IMV).

Really nice that #PTAL is buying back shares in situations like this. They're also slowly ramping up so they will reach the promised target eventually.

This will be the real test of the new social contract and the social fund. Now we'll see if it helps resolve issues and how much pressure (real) local people will put on the thugs from AIDECOBAP.

On their facebook page they state this absurd crap:

"The communities are exercising our right to defend ourselves from the aggression of an oil company in order to continue existing as an indigenous people. That is why we comply with the mandate of our assemblies by developing territorial control. We stand against the violation of our rights by the company Petrotal and the State, who, together with their allies subjected to the power of money, intend to once again massacre the Cocama people of Puinahua, as they did on August 8, 2020."

Https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/two-oil-tankers-attacked-by-indigenous-protesters-perus-amazon-petrotal-2023-06-07/

Time for the local government & police to step up.

Https://www.ogj.com/refining-processing/article/14286478/petrobras-completes-reman-refinery-sale

That's the local refinery - just a bit of info related to the recent sale. It's a small one. But I think/guess they're possibly just transporting the oil via bigger oil tankers from Manaus.

#PTAL do not want a NYSE listing. It's not on the table. The low volume in buy-backs is due to compliance reasons. They can't just clean the house - it's a slow and steady progress. And we're entering a low liquidity period of the year. I prefer the compounding effect of buy-backs - not getting a reduction in capital from dividend taxes. You could always sell some shares if you need cash :)

Anyways, in a few years they might have bought 25% of shares back, meaning SP should be 33% higher and dividend at that time... also should be 33% higher.

#PTAL can do both. And if you can't find a company where share buy backs has worked, you're not looking very hard. Start with Apple... e.g.

This is not a surprise - did expect it to happen cf. earlier post.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Climb-As-Saudi-Arabia-Goes-It-Alone-With-Additional-Cut.html

Nice to see they're "enforcing" a minimum price - will be interesting to see if shorters/paper oil still think oil should be traded at 70-72. If US really want to refill SPR, IMO last week was when they should have announced some serious deals.