Member Info for Sturm

Recent SP movements is a 99% brent-reflection IMO. So it's bound to go up again today...

It helps a bit on the mood that they're buying back shares at ridiculous prices :)

Don't forget the last 2 wells are not even on pump yet - huge capacity to increase production.... that is still >> guidance.

Sparrow - "I very much doubt we won't improve our offer rather than walk away" - I agree with that statement. It shouldn't be hard to find something that you would do regardless, and then add it to the bid. You might accelerate something, add seismic, or include a well that you would be drilling regardless of the initial bid.

On the other hand, TXP has enough on it's plate and the Cipero block isn't small. It's time to grow production and test prospects, not to add more (manegerial and financial) complexity and more targets.

Great news - should reduce the social risk further (but will have small influence on todays SP I guess).

We're trading ex-div today, so it would be nice to see SP standing ground regardless.

And we got new production data, they're still hitting nearly 20K BOPD!

Must be clear to everyone that they're sandbagging 2023 production estimate and an update/upgrade is very much expected when we get Q2 ER.

So.... shorters didn't learn the last time. And Biden isn't really very vocal about refilling SPR. You got to wonder if OPEC+ is just about to snipe the shorters again. At the very least I can't see WTI hit 68 (ish) without a) major SPR refills or b) OPEC+ cutting again - despite demand being fair and driving season just about to begin.

"Oil’s short positions are considerable, at 184 million barrels as of May 16. This is an increase of 140% from the number of short positions in play just a month earlier."

hxxps://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Will-OPEC-Surprise-The-Market-With-Another-Output-Cut.html

They should have money for all. If the number of shares is halved over a handful of years, you would get double the share price and double the dividend per share. I like that concept :) - at least when the P/E ratio is so extremely low.

More than 50 million shares traded the last days @ TSX; maybe related to warrants? Something is brewing for sure.

A nice takeaway from the Invester call: Drilling Osheki will basically be free since it triggers some tax losses for the field that can be carried over to Bretana; i.e. just costing a delay in cash flow even if it's a duster. And if it's not: $$$ !!!!

They have multiple new distribution/sales channels under scrutiny.

But no current plans to upgrade the US listing. Might come with too many requirements/challenge the board - or they just think the 3 present listings is enough.

PetroTal is pleased to confirm that its cash dividend of US$0.015 per common share in respect of Q1 2023 operations will paid according to the following timetable:

- Ex-dividend date: May 30, 2023

- Record date: May 31, 2023

- Payment date: June 15, 2023

And yes: "The Company believes that, at times, the prevailing share price does not reflect the underlying value of the common shares and the repurchase of its common shares for cancellation represents an attractive opportunity to improve PetroTal's per share metrics and thereby increase the value of the common shares."

I think PetroPeru at some point will be "in compliance" with PetroTal again; maybe even later this year? Hopefully PTAL will then negotiate a better deal, based on a lower rate (volume drives cost down fast) and payment should also be FOB (free on board) like barges for Brazil. It's honestly up to PetroPeru to secure the pipeline function - it's utterly stupid for PTAL to have to responsibility to hedge price and the hefty costs associated with it.

And. PTAL has plenty of spare capacity. 2 wells constrained, and more flush oil from new well is going to be constrained aswell. Meaning the cap @ 26.000 BOPD would be hit now, if distribution was ample.

So - when you're calculating the next quarters, try adding 26 mBOPD as an option for some interesting numbers. It will happen at some point - it's a "when", not an "if".

But IMHO only worth it if payment is FOB and at competitive price vs. Brazil. That, too, can be scaled.

They've increased their "safety box" from 50 to 60 (64) million. So they're (initially) returning less via share buy backs while not touching dividends. But as I've said they're (IMO) sandbagging production guidance so I expect they'll increase guidance in the Q2 ER. And have more cash available for buybacks (unless ofc. Miss Brent misbehaves).

Strong numbers - no surprises there. Production remains strong and they have spare capacity (new well(s) restricted).

Buyback seems a bit low, compared to dividend spend - it will be less than 5 mio. shares / quarter.

Dividend mid june.

I'm not sure they would even want to uplist with the increased requirements and the board would likely have to change (+ US is a "tertiarry" listing). (And they need 1 more year with profit?). But you can ask IR if they have that intention. Even with share buybacks, warrants gone etc. 4 USD in the next 2 years is probably a stretch ;)

GTE dropped from 8.01 a few days ago and then rise today from 6.04 to 6.19 indicating a 10:1 reverse split is better than buybacks?
I don't know the GTE case, but it's hardly an argument for reverse splits?

Headder, I agree 100% re. tech stocks - they often trade at a high forward P/E and "manipulate" eps. with buybacks (but don't forget that Apple is the biggest buyback company this last decade, and look at that SP fly...). Most of them should probably invest more in growth or at least pay dividend instead. Buying own shares at a high P/E simply doesn't make much sense - I guess IR and boards are sometimes obsessed with EPS and/or hold stock based compensation that favors buybacks, for them personally. As Buffett said, "Every small bit helps if repurchases are made at value-accretive prices. Just as surely, when a company overpays for repurchases, the continuing shareholders lose."

I'm sure it's easy to find cases for both sides of the story, but take a look at Top - an insurance company (so, as boring as it gets). Initially trading at low book value and P/E, the SP >20x'd over 17 years, buying 78% of shares back from 1998-2017 and then swapping to paying dividend instead (pretty much flat since then, +20%, but the dividend yield is ok).
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/top.co/

As for #PTAL - think about this: If share price wasn't affected (and anyone but me were selling stocks...) - how many years would it take for me to be the sole owner of #PTAL? 3? I'd wait for that.
Or let's assume the first 425 million shares can be bought back without affecting the SP - then at some point in 2025 you would get more than double the announced dividend "forever" - I would want to wait for that as well.

Anyways - #PTAL can do both the maximum allowed share buybacks and pay a healthy dividend.
So it's a win win for both fanclubs. Should we at some point be looking at a P/E of 7 or more (SP at 2 USD?) (you need just 10% growth to compete with that), I'd favor dividend return at 90%+ for #PTAL (despite having to pay 15-42% in tax on dividend across different stock portfolios/depots).

Headder, it's not so simple. You want to maximise shareholder value after tax. Dividend incurs tax for most of us, so that alone suggests the advantage of share buybacks.
Additionally, there's one more important factor: What's the P/E (or whatever metric you're using - but mostly everyone understands P/E) of the company?
Would you want a P/E 12 oil company to buy back shares or pay dividend?
What about a twin P/E 4 company?
After 1 year, the 1.000 USD worth of shares in the P/E 12 company + dividend (and minus tax) will be worth much less than the 1.000 USD worth of shares in the P/E 4 company (with same amount of dividend money spend on share buy backs). Trading at P/E value of 2 - 3(?) this year suggests it's super favorable to buy back for #PTAL and shareholders.
Of course you could reinvest all the dividend, buying more shares and receive the same result (give or take) - but certainly not after tax + it also defies the whole purpose of dividend. With buybacks, people can postpone tax-paying to the time when they need the money.

Maybe even better than expected :=)
... "PetroTal has been averaging over 20,000 bopd for over 60 consecutive days ending April 24." Who would have made that bet 60 days ago?
And... "Our commitment is to look for other export routes, including the ONP, with the aim of reaching our previous production record of 26,000 bopd in the near term."
"After tax free cash flow for 2023 is now expected to be approximately $85 million, an increase of $30 million from previous guidance" - that's NOT even based on their (sandbagged) production guidance - so... prepare for more!
Cash + working capital > 100 mio.
Share buyback and dividend imminent.
Super update :)

Ezhik - We'll know mid May (ER Q1). I guess they're fairly certain next zone will produce, based on wireline logs, and don't want the SV rig sitting on extended well test duty instead of drilling more Cascadura wells.
But the bigger picture is overlooked. It remains a billion USD deal and we're a few months away only from the first paycheck.
Delayed gratification ;)

Number hasn't dropped...
hXXps://www.guardian.co.tt/news/ngctouchstone-deal-worth-billions-6.2.1266188.6fda94757f
... however 854 days.... :S
2 months and we should see the real reward start unfolding. Bumpy SP until at least mid May (ER Q1) I guess.

I think they'll be interested in a field containing light oil with proven reserves and near-ready production . It will boost the net profit per barrel with a couple of dollars if they can avoid diesel diluent - but it's only relevant if ONP can be relied upon, they don't need diluent for Brazil. Brazil is still higher net profit than the expensive ONP, and I assume that the present 18K cap (if it's a cap!) is something they can work on (simply increase capacity and sales agreement @ Manaus). Progress on 192 is long overdue IMHO. It was in the IPO. So...Personally I'd prefer the reduced CAPEX plan at Bretana and instead work harder on the "new" prospects. But that's just me. And I guess the NPV of the "3 well/year" scenario might improve, since more and more... and more becomes P1 - since Bretana is such a great asset.

I'm taking your advice and ignoring you.
Please don't excuse your insults & namecalling with your multiple diagnosis, it's honestly pathetic.

Just ignore the (and until CPF is expanded). Capacity is 26K right now; we might hit that for a period when 15H is online - at some later point they'll need to expand capacity. However, ROI is poor if drilling 3 wells per year going forward.
10 YR after tax free funds flow only increases from 2.100 million to 2.137 - not worth the extra CAPEX needed IMHO. Extra storage is cheap and would be nice to dampen the fluctuations from flush wells, etc., providing more flexibility.