Member Info for Sturm

Certainly been a long time since the last fiscalization/production update - I wonder if it's just one guy who's able to do that and he happens to be on vacation. C'mon PerúPetro!

We'll have ER and investor call next week, hopefully that gives some info on the blocks.

... and an upgrade to guidance, fingers crossed - or my old "they're sandbagging" call isn't aging well.

Just teasing here ;)

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/07/31/2714719/0/en/OTC-Markets-Group-Welcomes-Valeura-Energy-Inc-to-OTCQX.html

It's IMHO still undervalued. I was lucky to get in before they struck black gold with their acquisition. One of the reasons why swingtrading isn't me - out for THE day, and you might miss a 100% gain.

I didn't read the whole CO2 thread here... however - heat pumps (for houses) are about twice as efficient as cars (EV vs newer ICE car), when it comes to reducing CO2, even when it's natural gas it displaces (and at 80% RE power). So... if you're loving fossil fuels you can be happy that politicians as usual do the sexy but less efficient thing (Teslas are more sexy than a heat pump for sure, even if production costs are way higher). So many more low hanging fruits. But none as sexy as BEVs.

#PTAL is not interested in being listed on the "real" market. It's already asked and answered by the company (and I doubt they want the legal hassle). If that POV changes I'm sure they'll let us know.

Share buybacks is about increasing shareholder value. With 500 million shares, your dividend would increase 920/500 = 84% and SP should do at least the same. Reverse splits are not going to make you more rich.

Https://www.dhn.mil.pe/shnaNEW/histogramas_shna/archivos/Amazonas.pdf

Not sure about the impact or how to interpret this. Or where exactly it's measured (In the harbour?)

At least the last week didn't continue the "dry" record track.

Still some room before we hit the 3 meter warning mark. And still some room before we hit last years drought level.

More "Gauge station" info here :

https://www.dhn.mil.pe/shnaNEW/index.php?seccion=histograma

(Should keep @viable busy :D )

Block 8 is a nice joker. I'm hoping Manolo is able to make that deal, despite the social downtime & freakshow we're going to witness if it happens. It also shows that Manolo is playing the long, long game here. Block 8 is (IIRC) light oil. And Bretana's oil is heavy and sour - so when using ONP (but not Brazil), PTAL has increased cost for diesel - to dilute the heavy oil. It's 1-2 dollars per barrel - so - that's A LOT of money they're able to save, if they can blend Bretanas heavy oil with Block 8's lighter version. It's going to take at least a couple of years to optimise, maybe more. It's got to be cheap though, cleaning up after previous owners etc. isn't fun.

Still - PTAL doesn't don't really need ONP to keep up the fabulous cash flow, dividend and share buy backs. It's thick icing on the cake, but the cake isn't going away :)

Ever the optimist, Smasher :) I bet you're more fun to drink a beer with that most on this board :)

Have a nice weekend and dreams of the cashcow :P

Barging capacity is much, much higher; what's the source for 450K - that's just misinformation?

"In conjunction with the oil trading company handling Bretana oil exports through Brazil, negotiated an upsized barging fleet, thereby allowing the Company to have access to over 1.5 million bbls of barging capacity, an increase of approximately 25% from the previous capacity of 1.2 million bbls"

That's the latest statement. Even without optimizing, that's around the 26K BOPD that the facilities can handle (and >30K optimized). And again: Oil ONLY leaves Bretana on barges. More barges/more efficient barging is just as good as ONP reopening. In the long run, ONP - with a better agreement = FOB ONP payment instead of the current sh.t - is a brilliant option since costs decrease with increased volume, making it more profitable than Brazil and Iquitos. When oil enters ONP it should be paid for and it's PetroPerus responsibility, not #PTAL's - really, how hard can it be to make that deal?

And even at 20K BOPD - without ONP - #PTAL is a brilliant cash cow @ OP 85. In 2024 at "normal" capex, that's > 200 million distributable income. At a market cap of presently ~500 mio. USD I'd say that's more than fine. As long as they can keep the number above 100 million USD (post Capex) I'm very happy and ready to buy any significant dips.

This is also mostly ignored/overlooked I think... they produced 19K BOPD in Q2, however, "During the second quarter, PetroTal constrained approximately 25% of its production capacity". So the "backup" production is >6K and they could produce 25K BOPD, giving them much flexibility with new wells and maintenance. And high agility if new distribution options become available. It's basically also less forward Capex needed (and as mentioned before, this years Capex is >> the "maintenance" level, meaning the guidance should be at least 50 million USD higher (if not 75), if it was based on "maintained production levels".

I hope we'll be able to crush 1 CAD this quarter :P - maybe with a little help from Mr. Brent, but that's very much in the hands of the macro gods (KSA, Ruzzia, China choo choo and Powell+ friends realising that inflation is coming down fast and further interest hikes are not needed to fight inflation in US, especially since hikes takes 12-18 months to have full effect).

Friday morning for a good RNS should be just as good and likely as any other day.

Why wouldn't it be? (If you disagree, pls back it with empirical evidence and not hearsay or gut feelings).

A month old though, BBB?

This should help PTALs price:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Sour-Crude-Oil-Prices-Skyrocket-As-Saudi-Arabia-Tightens-Supply.html

Maybe Ruzzia really cuts, "by choice"

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Is-Preparing-To-Export-Less-Oil-In-August.html

Well I can tell you this: If you try to challenge or question OMJ on twitter - even politely - you'll get banned. So that's how "great" an oilman he is. Echo chamber guys are simply a waste of time IMHO.

@ Viable - every barge can be used during reduced water levels. They just reduce the amount of oil each barge is carrying to reduce their draft. And since oil only leaves Bretana in barges, that's quite important :)

Great info re. the fund ownership. I bet it will grow. One month to go for the update to guidance and next divi date ;)

Re. NYSE: PTAL management isn't looking for an uplisting. They answered that question at the last presentation; if it's costs, increased reporting, board member compliance or just lack of need - who knows. Surely Manolo and Doug will get very, very rich from divs and share buy backs work better, when the SP is low.

If they began to buy back shares instead of paying divis.... That should help the SP. At least not go all in on divi but spend most on buyback when forward P/E is so low.

I guess I'm somewhere above +150% return over some years on #PTAL. I've added 18 times to my original position and in different accounts so I've kinda lost track :) Looking at the chart we have many +20% moves in a day or two, and personally I'd be Mr. Lucky if I were able to hit just half of them. They're pretty hard to foresee to me, so I'm 100% sure I wouldn't be up +150% if I'd been swingtrading. Mr. Tax also kills a lot of the profit when doing so.

I'm also up +150% in Valeura and again - you get that 100%+ jump in one day, that's just impossible to foresee; you know something is coming, but not when and how much. So I just don't have the skills to swingtrade.

I did begin a post this morning, with the triggers incoming etc. etc, but I kinda gave up (it's seriously underrated now, and a post from me isn't making any difference there tbh - so what's the point repeating must of what I've already written + a few new bits?).

But.

Nobody knows when the next update hits. They have been very early with updates after quarters a few times. And if there's an acquisition on the hand in an area with producing wells with light oil... then that would be huge. The cash price could also be very, very attractive since it's Peru and social disturbance etc. + a potential huge cash discount bco. decommissioning liability. Ofc. I'm just speculating, but it could happen; might happen in Q3 even. Trying to time that is mission impossible. (It's also irrelevant since I'm not selling hehe). But it can certainly be the next +20% day.

Looks like there's strong local support now. Social disruptions are also solved faster recently - or maybe it just feels that way ;)

If you're wondering what might happen to P3 reserves (and recovery factors) just spend 1 minut comparing the old Bretana outlook, p9, 2 years ago

http://petrotal-corp.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/PetroTal-Investor-Presentation-June-1-2021-Edits-v25-Final.pdf

With the new, p7:

https://petrotal-corp.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/PetroTal-IP-June-20-2023-Final-Version.pdf

2P is now 29 wells. 2 years ago it was 15.

It's certainly not done growing. No reason to trade up/down/in/out; patience is the only skill you need IMHO.

Jaw-dropping numbers.

MR. Brent touching 75 USD. Should close higher than yesterday I hope.

Only 15 days (+/-) till the next production update. Might be faster if there's something substantial.

Maybe with lot 8 update? And share buy back status.

Then another month (end august) and we'll get an update to the guidance (up!) and dates for dividend in september :=)

The usual small volume moving SP too much. I'm still waiting to see what will happen on a day where we have just 1% traded on good news. Isn't this pretty much an "as expected" RNS? Still on or about. Still not testing intervals where commercial oil is ready. I wonder if we're back "on or about" 1 CAD when Canada opens. Even 1/3 Cascadura (and nothing else) should be around 30% FCF @ 1 CAD.