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I wonder how much a similar/extra well will cost? And if they want to continue with the vertical wells or aim for deviate or even horizontal versions. New rig seems mighty efficient, so vertical wells must be relatively (!) cheap, hopefully with payout times shorter than 6 months (at the very least when we get distribution via pipeline sorted at some point).
I really want a peak at Kraken ASACA (i.e. as soon as cash flow allows).

Awesome link Viable! Also really shows how HUGE the river is; one for the bookmarks.
Credit Suisse really fecked oil up - I guess the next week will be bumpy; after the FED meeting I hope it will be more calm.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Giants-Shed-5-8-Amid-Plunging-Oil-Prices.html
even despite this (it's not driving season yet):
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Falls-Despite-Large-Draws-In-Fuel-Inventories.html
All in all - none of this is related to PTAL and we'll be fine. A lower Brent does impact PTAL more than the average small producer, since we have a massive amount of oil stuck in ONP and associated storage. So when oil price is down, we get a paper loss and that's pretty annoying. So y'all cross your fingers for a better oil price March 31st!

Peru is 6 times bigger than Uk or around the same size as Italy+France+Germany+Netherlands+Denmark.
So a little/lot of rain west of The Andes / at the coast doesn't really affect The Amazon river, east of The Andes.

@rylidan - page 18 will tell you that they have around 100 million USD after tax and CAPEX in 2023 - available for shareholders.
https://petrotal-corp.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/PetroTal-IP-Feb-1-2023-Final.pdf
@925 million shares (fully diluted) that's 0.108 USD / 8.9p / 0.148 CAD per share or just around 21% pay out for 2023 @41.5p.

That's @85 brent (which I think is very conservative) and under their current guidance (which is extremely conservative since it assumes historical Amazon river draught and continuous high social disturbance and lack of barges). Interestingly, once barges are optimised (50 day round trip), they'll no longer - finally! - be the bottleneck for production. I guess Manaus sales agreements/distribution options could be the next (temporary) bottleneck.

How much of the 100 million USD that will come as share buy backs and how much as dividend isn't know yet. However they'll not be allowed to buy back more than 10% afaik (Canadian rules) so a maximum of 41 million USD could at present market cap be used for buy backs and the rest for dividend. Once the bond is gone, share buy backs begin and dividend is paid the share price will ofc. be higher - so maybe they'll allocate 60 million USD for buybacks and 40 million for dividend - or rather, 10 million on a quarterly basis.
Personally I'd prefer as much as possible as share buybacks (due to tax reasons), as long as P/E is below 4/5 and a more symbolic level of dividend until then. I'd also rather have them test Osheki and other Block 95 leads NOW instead of the fidgeting - and there really is not that much need for drilling 3 wells per year going forward at Bretana. 10 year after tax cash flow only increases from 2.100 to 2.137 million USD - not really worth it IMO.

But we'll know much more March 3oth and even more after their usual April update, so you don't need much patience ;)

You're not taking into account that gas price is inflation adjusted. Brilliant work though.

Netback from gas is around 12 USD / barrel. You have to do the calculations pr. fuel or you will get screwed.

Yeah - and March 30th is only 3 weeks away. So we'll know more about the capital return programme then and also I guess we might see the remaining investor warrants (or at least a majority) be gone before that date (since they might miss out on dividend).

Had to read it a couple of times since my pulse just jumped a bit ;)
Barging capacity finally at near sufficient level - 1.5 million capacity means they'll be able to sustain > 20K BOPD (in theory 25K, but that's ofc. not possible).
Next well done in April and 20K secured for Q2.
"The Company reiterates its Q1 2023 cash flow guidance, which will allow for the remaining $55 million of bonds to be repaid by the end of March 2023, in addition to the $25 million paid in mid February 2023. The full bond repayment will allow for a capital return program to commence shortly thereafter, with further updates on this program to be made in due course."
Yes,
Social issues hopefully gone (fingers crossed) - meaning production will be much higher than guided.
And they're much faster than usual with the annual report - March 30th!
... "capital return program to commence shortly thereafter"

Another 17K BoO added on the 6th. At this pace, net profit is > 1 million USD/day - nice :)

Straight to Manaus cf. latest update... "With export capacity now reestablished, most of the Brazilian barges are now arriving in Bretana, allowing the Company to increase production. Once filled, they will travel to Manaus, Brazil to unload. It is possible that this travel schedule may create export constraints for the Company early in 2023 while the barging fleet returns to optimal route travel times." A bit later than expected, but what a nice pile of dollars they'll put in the vault.
They'll need more barges to keep up the pace :)

".... is something between 12 and 20 wells in the pool,” Baay noted. He said the hope is to have ***all*** of the wells drilled and on production by 2024." Did he really say that... that's a lot (!) of oil & CAPEX.

The last 14 days #PTAL has produced 227.889 BOO, that's 16.278 BOPD. Last 7 days was 153.947, that's nearly 22K BOPD!
Looks like they're maybe sending a 320.000 BOO shipment to Brazil; @86 that's 16.6 million in netback for that alone.
Then there's Iquitos on the slow and steady 1.500 BOPD (and since it's fiscalized production, there's some bias from local storage). Genuine cash monster :D

Kind of a non-event this year; next year it's going to be much more interesting. I wsih they'd explicitly state that the reserves exclude *insert long list of exploration/prospects"

Looking forward to the next update. Production has been weak, but we know the reason and it's been picking up very fast to accommodate incoming barges. They're aiming for 1.2 million in capacity and 50 days round trip, making 24K BOPD to Brazil & Iquitos possible (it will take a while, and they're guiding much less for 2023).
Next well should be spud soon and we'll get an update early April re. Q1 and possibly the bond. I still expect them to return 100 million USD in 2023 + of course the 85 million USD bond to bondholders. Fully diluted that's >9p per share and @42p that's 22% return on the current share price. Still very cheap. And let's not forget that they've got FCF of 5x market cap incoming during the next 10 years - after tax - since a lot of the CAPEX is now done. That's quite spectacular and we're still pricing in 0 for their (huge) exploration targets. I expect SP to tick up when people realize that next train of barges is heading back for Brazil and that PTAL, even with the low production in the first 2 months still made >20 million EBITDA so far.

I'm wondering if it's going to be free floating with that many feet of pay / what the permeability is. Just wondering, since Kraken is just below (ish) - if Kraken is water and not oil, would it not be possible to inject that into Royston and increase flow. So even finding water would have some value. Else it's fracking, but who the f. wants fracking if it's possible to avoid it.

Hardly a leak, since volume was very small. So I'm just going to repeat that volume is - and has been - very low for a while since people are positioned for the next leg up and you'll probably have a very hard time building something like a 1% holding fast. And also repeat that people selling @0,58£ days ago really needed to keep their cool, compared to what the delay really meant for market cap.

IIRC they also mentioned on a call that they'll only be able to buy back 10% of free float annually(?), so that's 6-7% of total shares + possibly/probably additionally 3-4% from major shareholders pro rata.

HermanusInclusus I guess share buybacks are not possible without AGM consent and/or public information via stock exchanges. IMO warrants needs to be gone first (or maybe PTAL can buy them; would make sense), so June is a possible start. I think it ticked up in Canada bco a few good production days. Right now, there's no free storage capacity, and ONP is still not operational, so all oil produced will be sold basically when it leaves Bretana in barges. More barges... that's what we need.

At least the TSX listing is just taking a small 1% hit so far. If only the Brites could keep their cool... :)

Yep - just look at #PTALs liquid factory, turning watered oil into... oil.
Anyways, between nil and zero of Royston is priced in now, so if good, should really move the SP, options and drilling forward. Fast money means more drilling, etc.

This delay isn't worth a 17 million £ drop in market cap IMHO. That's my rational approach. I'm here for the long run and the case hasn't changed 17 million£. I'm sorry you get so agitated. Feelings and rational decisions/investment don't go well hand in hand IMO. Sorry for your loss. Better to move on to something that is less toxic for your health IMO.