Member Info for Sturm

And 17,216 BOPD so far - probably also helping SP a bit today.
Massive amounts of cash incoming. I wonder if they managed to increase the Brazilian route... yet. It's for sure not just stored since volume > stock options.

Not really a takeover candidate imho. Political risk is far to big and the majors are leaving oil for green when it comes to new assets. And risk is too big for the medium players. Maybe CNPC… Anyways I’m not selling below 2CAD

EIA is not factored in. Silly to assume that it is.

After 10 days in May, 173,881 barrels or about 10.5 million USD net profit - market cap 350 mio. Pretty crazy.

Definitely a stronger case today than yesterday. Everything is pretty much as expected I would say, with a lot of risk gone.
How much time do they need from the "We anticipate submitting the additional information request on May 13, 2022" to sign the approved EIA, I wonder. 6 weeks?

We still have nearly 100 million warrants outstanding. Probably the most annoying bit about PetroTal on the financial side - they made some poor decisions including generous warrant gifts to II's (and premature dividends, and not hedging when the company was vulnerable, and did we really need the full 100 mio expensive bond - where's the promised acquisition then?). Usually I would argue for share buybacks (better compounding with 0 tax) but with PetroTal I honestly prefer dividends - with the amounts of free warrants outstanding. If II's want to be a part of the game, they've better chip in with what they were gifted. Else they'll have to pass on dividends. No point in share buybacks - that will only benefit II's and warrant holders even more. With luck we might get 50 mio. USD this year and maybe 25 mio. per quarter moving forward (just a guess - since there's a zillion unknown factors including what will the oilprice be and will the indigenous folks be/stay happy).

Look at the comments to the article btw.:

"Although the minister says he’s ready to ramp up production of oil and gas, in reality this can only happen if an enormous amount of investment flows into Trinidad’s energy sector.

That investment should already be flooding in - a stable, democratic country like Trinidad is the sort of place where people would like to invest, especially in troubled times such as these.

The problem though is that Trinidad has the highest energy taxes in the world. As a consequence, investors send their money elsewhere.

The government knows that without changes to the taxation system (changes that would actually increase tax revenues even as tax rates are reduced as production would soar) it cannot significantly increase energy output, but fails to get round to doing anything about it. Just last week a new $200 million oil project that could increase Trinidad’s daily oil production by over 10% in just over a year’s time was paused due to the government’s failure to make fiscal changes.

Daily oil production in Trinidad has fallen from about 90,000 barrels in 2015 to about 60,000 today. Since then there’s also been limited economic growth. This is not the time for more delay. If the government doesn’t get its act together quickly, there’s a real risk that when it does the current round of investment will have gone elsewhere (energy sector investment is highly cyclical)."

https://tt.loopnews.com/content/young-hopeful-corruption-index-score-will-improve
Maybe why things are slow in T&T. A lot of cogs & weels probably needs to be greased.
Ew.

@ Darien - This link takes you to the production numbers. You might have to refresh the page, if you have it cached.
https://www.perupetro.com.pe/wps/wcm/connect/corporativo/7318e1ef-aaa2-4c91-8313-7d2090cba5fa/Producci%C3%B3n+l%C3%ADquidos.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&liquidos
PetroTal is somewhat constrained when it comes to stock, so when production is running it's always good :). Always.
Either it's sold into ONP (when ONP is working...) or shipped to Brazil. Iquitos refinery get the first dip, but it's sadly quite limited in capacity. 2 of the pump stations have quite big storage facilities, but I've no clue to what degree it's available.
Regardless, a 240.000 - 300.000 barrel shipment to Brazil, with fast money... once per month... that alone sets us up for a record year (and then there's true up from ONP and ofc. the stable Iquitos sales). And hedging is a joker I guess.

Strong numbers. Either it's sold when ONP is back online - or (hopefully) via Brazil for some fast cash.
Production is probably higher than most people expected after the latest shutdown - but the SP is still very much in lock-down territory. I expect a rerate soon and added more today.

Compared to e.g. Peru, oil production is just too heavily taxed in T&T. Add bureaucrazy and it just gets worse. Tax issues is probably my first concern about T&T and also why I'm looking for other companys to invest in now. And ofc. also why I prefer gas production to come online asap. Costs and tax on oil... nahh. Surely they can't think tax it's working for them in T&T but they've been discussing the issue for years.

Just another reason to up the Brazilian route.

Fair point - I should have said "fail to move forward more quickly".
Let's see how fast Germany is able to design, approve and build LNG terminals. Same time it will take to bring Coho online from discovery or shorter? T&Ts economy is more dependent on O&G than Germanys afaik.

It's really incredible that they have this great need and a solution (coho/cascadura) at hand, yet fail to move forward.

What they need to work on is more shipments to Brazil. Right now, that's the only crucial thing. ONP is out of their hands, Brazil is the action point. What the net profit is depends a lot on the hedging policy, so TBH I don't expect average net price at that level.

@highlandmatt - yes, absolutely :) Always interesting to hear where other investors are doing.
I'm nearly there with my TXP holding (and PTAL) - so now I'm looking for 2 - 3 other positions (I got some cash coming in from real estate). While I could throw more money into TXP I'm thinking there's a small chance ?? that there's a company or two out there with the same potential.

Well if they want to max out SP, how about Coho Monday, EIA tuesday, well spud Wednesday ;)

On a more serious note - while we wait for Coho :) - (and sorry for the detour) - what other 3-5 baggers in 3 years do you have on the radar Scott? Within O&G / mining - (and not pure exploration - ie must have known ressources)

@LV1991
Yes, you did so PRE Coho. PRE being the important point.
My question is - will you try to do the same after Coho, expecting SP to drop below present level, because some (future) news will be more important?
IMHO coho online will raise us to a new level and a new bottum higher than the present level. Delays to Coho will do the opposite. EIA is probably not going straight through without any comments.

Of course it will move the share price. It's proof of concept, proof of "bureaucracy works" and steady cashflow.
If we get both the Cascadura EIA (or a conditioned: Fix this and that, then go) we'll be back at ATH at the latest when they start the next production/exploration well. Of course there's a risk of further delays - that will hurt the SP a lot - so I'm sitting patiently waiting for the next news on the Coho front before adding more.

I'm pretty sure more people will join/rejoin once Coho is hooked up, with the increase in SP that should follow. (I'd like to hear the argument for waiting with investment for a later event).

I'm pretty sure getting Coho online is the most important thing (vs. a minor delay in EIA that is) - just as I was certain that the reserve update wouldn't do much for the SP. I hope I'm proven right in less than 5 weeks. Would be nice to spend the summer watching TXP slowly climb in value. IMHO the gas fields are more important than getting known oil-fields online despite present OP (also the stupid high tax on oil vs gas must be taken into account).