Member Info for Sturm

People are too obsessed with what's markeds as buys & sells IMHO.
Regardless, sellers decide the price.

07-Dec-21 16:35:13 104.00 97 Sell* 110.00 114.00 100.88 UT
07-Dec-21 16:29:24 113.11 316 Buy* 112.00 114.00 357.43 O
Really....
Someone pls report this to LSE. Next level stupid manipulation.

Shame they didn't have that interview out yesterday morning.
Nice with Coho & Cascadura updates (I wonder if they read this BB) - not that I trust Paul re. Cascadura timeline, but Coho online in January is good enough for me, combined with the "fast oil" from Royston.

Well the Cascadura EIA hasn't been submitted and it will probably take some months to get an approval. Then there's what - four months for the pipeline; drilling needs to be done, facilities needs to be installed and tested; probably subject to delays due to covid, spare parts and what not.
So realistically - is the supposed-to-be-2021-cascadura-wall-of-cash going to be in sight in 2022?

Results were known March 2020. It was supposed to be online in 2021 cf. 2020 AIF.
March 2021: "Touchstone expects to produce from the upper interval and is currently designing appropriate surface
facilities to meet the initial production capabilities."
Reality: EIA still not done. Without delays maybe it will be approved in March 2022.
Realistically, what is the timeline from there - what kind of surface facilities needs to be produced/purchased and what's the time needed to install and test facilities and get wells online?

Very, very positive RNS. Nice to see more barges being commissioned "that would allow the Company to produce unconstrained through December 2021. Including flush production from the recently drilled and completed 9H well, the Company expects to initially produce over 18,000 bopd"
9H is 10-15% better in flush production than the previous record - bodes well for coming production.
No wonder we have nice volume and some big trades today.
And on top of this we have OP up 4% today.

Well. Clearly investors trusted TXPs expectations, i.e. " liquids rich natural gas".
So we got a lemon (or should I say a lemon water) instead of an "unbound" orange. So of course the SP drops. Hardly manipulation anywhere. Road to cash is longer, with more Capex and not the same certainty as more gas would give. Plus some investors will probably wonder how much gas is really down there @ cascadura.
I'm of course still patient, however this was not the result I've hoped for. From the sentiment on this BB one should think THIS was the preferred outcome and oil > gas, etc.
Investors have voted today - they mostly disagree.

Pre Chinook we had FOMO before test results. Now we have FUD ;)

Happy to see Gran Tierra Energy exit #PTAL tbh.
Did Remus Horizons PCC Ltd. ever get the full 29.9%?
And we still have Meridian Capital International Fund /18.7%
Burggrabens @ 8.16%

No RNS tomorrow probably means we'll have FUD untill a RNS hits.

Hope of progress now. About time!

https://rpp.pe/peru/actualidad/petrotal-pide-reunion-a-presidente-pedro-castillo-por-protestas-contra-produccion-en-loreto-noticia-1371898
https://proycontra.com.pe/gorel-apoya-propuesta-de-petrotal/
"Today the Regional Government will hold a meeting with the leaders and lead the negotiations with the National Government to give businessmen and provide the peoples with what they need."
At least according to google translate :)

http://www.petroguia.com/pet/noticias/petr%C3%B3leo/petroper%C3%BA-compr%C3%B3-un-mill%C3%B3n-de-barriles-de-di%C3%A9sel-de-bajo-azufre-chevron-y-shell
"Most of the company's fuel sales are supplied by imports because construction of the Talara refinery has not yet completed."
Some testing have started but Talara is hardly operational before summer 2022 (April according to the latest schedule).
Expensive for at developing nation to import fuel when they could produce it locally...

* or the Pucallpa refinery.
Problem probably is that the regional president and staff (etc. etc) have to figure out new ways to skim tax etc. before they can "solve" this :S

I hope the indigenous community block more, especially the Iquitos refinery would be a nice target. Or the
As long as it's just ONP and #PTAL they're blocking, there's not the same urgency for regional and national government to solve anything.
And forget about gunboat diplomacy IMHO. With 1.100 km of vulnerable pipeline in the jungle that's not going to help.

I have too much profit to be selling out - tax would kill too much.
Anyways, 11% down means the market is (give or take) counting on a complete shut-down for 37 days (15.000*45 netback = 675.000 USD /day vs. a market cap loss of about 25 mio. USD). Ofc. there's additional costs with shutting down; but drilling can continue and wells will be more flush on reopening; so the real loss will be caught up to some degree.

That being said, it's really annoying that the indigenous people punish PetroTal as collateral damage here.
If they want change, go to Iquitos and sit on the refinery. Block a highway. But don't f... with private companies. Especially not those that will be a part of the solution and are not a part of the real problem.

I'm fairly certain the drop is caused by HOC. Very unlikely to affect #PTAL but the market likes to slap the SP especially when volume is low.
I'm not worried about the distribution issues for #PTAL after listening to Manolo's talk about how they'll handle this, should ONP remain closed. I'm not worried about #PTAL being restricted since the footprint is honestly miniscule; drilling 16+ wells from one (ONE) pad and with no incidents so far (fingers crossed). Peru hardly spent 5 BILLION dollar upgrading Talara refinery to just import MORE oil (still a major oil importer) - and ONP is still critical infrastructure. It's IMHO a bargain at this price and I would by more if I hadn't filled my greasy boots already.

Bad typo - page 9 - note 2 ofc :D

... but nothing that worries me.
Also, go to page 12 in the new presentation. Read note 2.... With increased OP and increased recovery rates, will B-tax NPV(10%) exceed 2 billion USD early 2022? Time will tell.

Honestly I think it's much more important that they are able to produce despite having no access to ONP. Barging can be scaled (slowly) if disruptions persist. But having a steady (though restricted) cashflow is super important vs. the 2020 "no ONP = no production" situation. #PTAL taking a lead vs. social disruption is also important. We're in a so much better position than in 2020 - risk has been reduced significantly, reward increased with oil price going up and reserve updates pending.