Member Info for Sturm

It's probably a quote from this office on the conference. Not very clever of XM IMHO.
https://www.energy.gov.tt/office-of-the-permanent-secretary/

Oh no, this is still a Black Friday SP.
X-mas - that's 1 more Hz well and another ER away + CPF-2 done - that can't be baked in yet.
0,385 CAD now, that's 22P.
Next reserve update and NAV 10.... that's going to be mindblowing.

https://petrotal-corp.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/PetroTal-Investor-Presentation-September-15-2021.pdf
Just changed the production numbers so if you're up to date there's nothing new in it.

Amazing pay-back time, as usual. And exceptionel cost&timing control in this business.
Really great update concerning ONP (and the mention of the PM & MEM); I assume we'll see some very strong fiscalisation numbers the next weeks.
The updated Talara Refinery (#5 billion dollar bet that Peru needs the oil) should start production in november.

@ scoot re. PetroTal: Wells typically cost 9-12 million USD; they're usually drilled on time and below budget and the payout time for their wells are typically less then 3 months.
Not unlikely we'll see P3 NPV above 2 billion USD next update and that is for a company with a market cap of <220 mio. USD. Oh - and they'll be debt free early next year, will be done with P2 capex mid 2022 and have more than a decade of >> 10.000 BOPD. (All oil, not 15 USD/BOE's of gas). FCF next 3 years >> market cap.

https://en.petrotal.pe/
I haven't noticed this before - looks fine (from browsing some minutes) and a nice indicator of PetroTal engaging in the community. Sorry if it has been posted before, IIRC it has not.

Looking great!
Would expect a nice increase in SP on top of this plus a RNS in a few days or at least a production update.

Since we should be back at 10K when looking at the latest update I'm wondering if they're just finishing up the last bit of water pump installation etc. and "delaying" the ER until the 31st. Would make sense since there's usually also a production update. Next well, BN-8H, should also be done early september. ("The Company expects that, upon completion of the BN-8H and fixing the water pumping disposal capacity, to ramp production to over 13,000 bopd and meet Q3 2021 average production guidance of 11,750 bopd").

I hope we get a Q2 report within the next 24 hours :D

Opposition aims to impeach Peru's President after FM's resignation
https://www.plenglish.com/index.php?o=rn&id=70790
Just shows how difficult it is to make any radical changes in Peru without a majority senate.
Also this:
https://atalayar.com/en/content/perus-prime-minister-and-leader-ruling-party-charged-money-laundering
So... political uncertainty is high, but impact on PetroTal is IMO low. Super cheap; if we'll not get returns from a fair share price we will get it from dividends from maybe H2 2022.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/perus-foreign-minister-resigns-setback-new-leader-castillo-2021-08-17/
Good news - maybe not super related to O&G, but still.
"Castillo will need to appoint a new foreign minister before the end of the month, when the opposition-led Congress will vote whether to accept or reject the Cabinet."
I guess Q2 ER will make us happy sometime next week.

Castillo still hasn't got a working cabinet and can't find a majority. I guess that's why SP doesn't move despite the massive cashflow. No bad news recent week really, from what I can tell.
https://en.mercopress.com/2021/08/13/relief-for-peruvian-investors-orthodox-central-bank-president-remains-in-the-post

There's not a chance IMHO that any kind of hard regulation or heavy taxation will hit oil industry (Peru is a net importer of oil, on top of that they just spent 5 billion dollars on upgrading Talara refinery). Mining and maybe (household) gas might be easier targets. But it will hardly get to that point. Peru is a democracy and Castillos power is limited; he can (and will) be impeached and removed from office if he doesn't play ball. "Impeaching presidents in Peru is easier than almost anywhere on earth. Castillo’s opponents would just need 87 out of 130 votes in the single-chamber congress, and he could be ousted under the loosely defined “moral incapacity” clause." I think people forget it's a right wing senate. I guess the senate will rather impeach him than taking the election that will be the consequence of a double rejection of his cabinet.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-09/twelve-days-in-office-and-crisis-swamps-peru-s-leftist-president
.... and in the meanwhile, PetroTal is benefiting from the weak Sol and making a ton of dollars.
Also, the royalty is 5-6% so in all fairness - and keeping in the mind the super earnings - a higher royalty will not rock the boat. The ~300 million deferred tax asset they have is worth a lot as well. Basically as long as the indigenous people don't ruin production, PetroTal is not that affected by how the rest of the economy and political scene evolves. Oil is traded in USD (yay), most of the cost is in Soles - and can be exported to Brasil if Iquitos, ONP or Talara for that matter fails to operate.

I guess this sums up the political situation quite fine: In short: What a mess - no clear path.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/7/a-tumultuous-first-week-in-office-for-peru-new-president

This is from the new minister for mining/hydrocarbons:
"Minister Merino, accompanied by the president of the transfer team for Minem, Ing. Oscar Frías Martinelli, stressed that private investment is essential..."
AND
"In addition, the importance of convening greater investments in hydrocarbons was pointed out"
Peru needs more oil. Net importer - that needs to change and that demands investments.
https://www.gob.pe/institucion/minem/noticias/509057-ministro-merino-se-reune-con-empresas-chinas-que-operan-en-el-peru

As an investor, dividends means the company decides when you'll pay taxes. With share buybacks it's up to you to sell and be taxed. As a foreign investor you might also have trouble with withheld dividend tax and getting that refunded. At the bare minimum the company (IMO) should cover all warrants through buybacks, or retail investors will be diluted.
Of course if the company is trading at a P/E >20 with no growth expected, share buybacks makes little sense. In a company at a P/E of 1 dvidend doesn't make sense. (Imagine TXP doing full share buyback and you were the only investor not to sell AND the share price was unaffected - then you would own TXP 100% in 5 years time maybe). So of course share price increases as shares are bought back since 1 share means a larger ownership.
So for tax reasons i prefer share buyback, at least to the point where a high forward P/E makes the company "expensive".

I wonder if PetroTal will acquire anything before it's more clear what future conditions will be for O&G in Peru. Gotta be dirt-cheap to buy any asset now.

Let's get Coho online before we get carried away with dividends and (better still) share buybacks.

How much info is obtained when drilling compared to the seismic? Let's say they'll have 3 - 4 production drills in an area. Is that enough to obtain a fairly accurate "picture" of the ressources. Or what's the best foundation for production wells?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/peru-president-castillo-names-member-far-left-party-prime-minister-2021-07-29/
Not good: "President Pedro Castillo named Guido Bellido, a member of his Marxist party, as prime minister on Thursday"
Still lacking finance minister.
"Castillo also named Ivan Merino as energy and mines minister, a little-known mining specialist who is close to Free Peru, according to local news site IDL-Reporteros."
"Bellido and the rest of the cabinet will need confirmation by the opposition-led Congress, where Bellido's appointment in particular is set to face stiff resistance. A majority of Congress votes are held by center and right-wing parties."
I wonder if Bellido will be confirmed. I don't know the process.

Anyways, netback per barrel can be increased by 1 USD (so that's a lot in 2022! 6 - 7 milliuon more) if they can avoid blending the heavy oil (for the ONP pipeline) - assuming of course that they acquire a nearby asset with flowing light oil. Their other leads in Bretaña might contain light oil - I doubt that will be before 2024 though ("An estimated $25 million seismic program has been designed to upgrade leads to drillable prospects and is expected to commence in early 2023 based on permitting approvals, which the company is now pursuing").
They do have 2 permits for Osheki (monster target, but 40 mio USD to drill) and maybe also Constitution? and exploration commitment to drill two exploration wells Q4 22 in that block.