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Webcast is available from Q1 presentation. Quite interesting.

I wonder when major shareholders (and warrant holders) will start to push for share buyback. At this price level I can’t imagine another “acquisition” being more attractively priced, despite the need for more light oil to blend with Bretanas heavy crude.
It will protect the company and shareholders from silly takeover bids (that would include from the state). There’s 20 mill USD restricted in cash for this. And right now (with only 1 pad and 1 rig) cashflow is coming in faster than PetroTal can spend it. EBITDA >> 150 mio. USD next 12 months + 31 mio. USD true up from ONP oil.

Based on the last 360.000 counted votes and with 1.3 mio. votes yet to be counted; Castillo probably wins with a margin of 200-250K. He has received 60% of the last 360.000 votes and Keiko's lead is now just 31K with 92.767% counted.

Mr. Market should think that Castillo wins based on the last months polls.
Just remember we were @ 0.335 CAD before the first round; brent was @ 64$ (IIRC) and PetroTal hadn't yet drilled that fine deviated well.
Regardless of the result, PetroTal is in the best shape ever. SP just isnt. Far from.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57381362
Peru election: Fujimori's lead narrows as rural votes come in.

Castillo ahead in this later one.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/peruvians-head-polls-elect-president-divided-by-class-geography-2021-06-06/
I hope there's not a lot of disturbance the next days.

Photo finish. I wonder when final result is in. Poll is probably 1 week old.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/perus-castillo-falls-polls-suggesting-photo-finish-against-fujimori-2021-06-05/

I think we're in for a few bumpy weeks with election around the corner. Should Castillo win, in my book it would make sense to start a share buyback program instead of using earmarked money for acquisitions. It will take some time before there's clarity on tax and in that period exploration (in generel) will suffer in Peru - AKA wake up call. On the other hand, price on new fields will plummet :D
PetroTal is super strong, with crazy cash flow & profit compared to the market cap. While the market cap might suffer (who knows) from the election, 2021 at least will be a monumental year for PetroTal regardless of the name of the next president.
Keep in mind, congress is center right.

Gonzalo Alegria, an economist and international banker advising Castillo, says Castillo isn’t looking to upend the nation’s free-market system.“Pedro [Castillo] is not a communist,” he said. He said Castillo’s team is looking at economic models in countries from Denmark to Singapore, not Venezuela. “If anything, he is a moderate,” Alegria said. “A new constitution is about addressing corruption and creating a more modern state.”

T&T - Very difficult area for a geologist - aka “the graveyard of geologists”
LinkedIn posts use the same term. Even here it's used: https://www.energy.gov.tt/resources/oil/petroleum-geology/

Trinidad is situated at the triple junction formed by the meeting of three plates, the Caribbean, South American and North Atlantic Plates. As a result, this small island and its surroundings is one of the most geologically complex areas of the world and has often been called “the graveyard of geologists”

Net income for the quarter was $30.9 million, Profit/Share 0,046 CAD
Exited Q1 2021 with $75.8 million of total (restricted and unrestricted) cash.
Pretty much able to pay off the bond after this (Q2) quarter. Still 31 mio. USD in the bank later from oil in ONP.
Netprofit/barrel 26 USD; try calculating what that means in december /month :D

Q1 should be out later today. What blows my mind is the fact that we were at 0,34 CAD pre-election and now - we're at 0,24ish, while Peru continue to be a net importer of oil, but mining is mentioned by both contenders as "taxable" and nobody is talking about nationalisation (which would be at market value anyways, under FTA).
And we've had very good results from the deviated well, costs will be lower than expected (costs are partly in weak Peruvian Soles). So if Fujimori wins we should be back >0,34 in a jiff. If Castillo wins - is Petrotal really only worth 70% of the pre-election market value? Not to mention that this years Ebitda might with a strong brent price be > market cap and for sure the next 12 months ebitda will be > market cap (if brent stays strong).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-28/castillo-s-lead-narrows-in-peruvian-vote-simulation-for-runoff
TBH i don't think Castillo winning would be a disaster for oil companys since Peru is a net importer and need more oil. Mining... that's another case. Fujimori is preferable, but PetroTal already has so much tailwind from production and oil price increase that some headwind from Castillo will not blow PetroTal off the trail.
Market cap @ 0,245 CAD = 165 mio. USD. With brent in the 67 - 69 range that's pretty much the same as my (e) EBITDA 2021.

New production numbers public:
10.300 BOPD in May as per the 27th. 257.488 in total so far.
Still going strong, +3.000 BOPD compared to april with 2 wells waiting for upgraded pumps.
Q1 report May 31st and a very interesting webcast June 1st.

IMHO the fear of Castillo winning is out of proportion. The congress is center right + Peru is a net oil importer, in need of more oil for the Talara Refinery (and just overall). Really, what do people expect?

"Castillo (...) said in a document outlining plans for his first 100 days in office that he would strengthen the role of the state with a "mixed economy" approach and actively regulate monopolies and oligopolies."

SP was 0,34 CAD earlier this year, it's now 25% down despite great drilling results and a higher oil price. Priced by fearfull investors for sure.

I wonder what peruvians will think about this. "Old" Fujimori's greater achievements was how "Shining Path" was handled.
Peru's Shining Path kills 16, including children, ahead of polls.
I don't think that helps Castillo.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57239680.amp

Very interesting. Castillo really have lost momentum and the failure to provide a 100 day plan when promised + discussions about his cabinet etc. surely doesnt help him. He's an amateur in this game - sometimes that's an advantage (Just look at Trump).

New production numbers our: 10,547 BOPD so far in May, 189,849 in total as per the 18th.
Vs. 7,355 in April. Nice increase :)

"Q1 2021 financial and operating results will be announced on May 31, 2021 along with an updated corporate presentation, and a webcast virtual call on June 1, 2021"
I think we'll get a needle movement there :)
I wonder if a part of the 31 million USD true up from the ONP oil has been received in Q1?
Regardless of election outcome, 2021 will be a fantastic year for PetroTal.

https://gestion.pe/peru/politica/datum-pedro-castillo-tiene-44-y-keiko-fujimori-alcanza-41-en-primer-simulacro-de-votacion-elecciones-peru-segunda-vuelta-noticia/?ref=gesr
Castillo also promised his "100 day plan" today (saturday). That should give us some clarity - and still, it's not a dictator they're electing and the congress is center-right. So - maybe he'll be pragmatic (and electable) and introduce a realistic plan, maybe he'll go with his original plan. We'll see. It looks like Fujimoro might take over the lead at some point - still 3 weeks to the election and I assume she's got a higher media spend (at least she should have richer sponsors).
Neither is going to be popular.

Thommie - it probably wasn't clear from my post, but I was only calculating the increase in production and the increased net profit. While the SP hasn't moved, cash flow and net profit certainly have - that was the point I was trying to make. EBITDA @ 68,5 brent and 11.100 BOPD is 12,3 million on a monthly basis / 147,4 million annually + there's still the true up from the ONP oil - another 30+ million.
Plus there's the "two wells, representing approximately 1,200 bopd, currently shut in to accommodate water injection enhancements". I don't know if that means that "CPF1" is producing at max capacity or they're simply forced to shut them down while awaiting the water injection enhancement (and maybe new pumps like the 4H got).
With 4 additional horizontal wells planned plus their ability to drill on time (and budget) I think they're more than well on track to meet their production guidance.

New production numbers:
May: 11.287 BOPD (11 days).
April: 7.355
@ 40 USD netprofit/brl, that's 4.7 million / month. New well is paid within 2 months. Amazing numbers.