Member Info for Sturm

What RNS is that? No news on their homepage, no newsletter and no RNS visible here.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/peru-opposition-lead-congress-setback-socialist-castillo-2021-07-26/
Interesting read. Confirms that the "red threat" is quite overrated, despite Castillos hard efforts (!) to assemble a cabinet across the senate. "Congress will guarantee the balance of powers that the country needs". Also confirming it's a mess still; I do hope he gets his balanced cabinet confirmed. Seems like a reasonable way forward.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/change-is-coming-perus-castillo-faces-divided-nation-after-election-battle-2021-07-20/
Going to be really interesting (and decisive) who the cabinet members will be, especially the heavy post re. economy. If it's just remotely as balanced as Castillo is hinting I think we'll get back to 0.31 CAD quite fast. Royalties are so low (5-6%) that even doubling them (probably worst case?) PetroTal will still be absolutely flooded with cash the next year, and even more so from mid 2022 (ofc. assuming Brent doesn't implode).

It's pretty interesting that the cash flow before/in Q1 2022 will be >>100.000.000 USD better than it was going into 2021 (with the 100 mio. USD bond in mind), assuming 4.2 mio. barrels in 2021 and 1.3 mio. barrels in Q1-22 (very conservatively @ 14.000 BOPD). So 5,5 million barrels * 20 USD more/barrel (than early 2021) = 110.000.000 USD + ¨30.000.000 USD in true up revenue from oil in the ONP pipeline. I'm very eager to hear what the plan is going forward - hopefully they'll enlighten us late august with the Q2 report. Up to 70.000.000 share buy back (to cover investor warrants) at less than 16p (should it stay that low) seems like an excellent idea if they're not able to spend the money drilling or on a meaningfull acquisition (it's arund 15 mio. USD and they can keep them as treasury shares for acquisitions). Redeeming the bond early is also an option - should be possible july 2022 (12% interest, yark).

Where are we with the Chinook test? It's been going on for 2 months at least - will we get a RNS if it's not commercial (I assume so).
And what about the Cascadura EIA?
And more importantly: First gas @ Coho - "awaiting final direction from the National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago regarding the preferred delivery point for Coho gas volumes. Once this has been provided, the Company will begin pipeline construction which is anticipated to take 60 days subject to weather conditions" - September sounds very optimistic now.

Right.... not sure that's how it's working...
Just try to role-play that suggestion in the Shell board room with this in mind: https://www.offshore-energy.biz/shell-to-boldly-go-and-speed-up-emission-cuts-as-dutch-court-ruling-bites/
"Are we paying for oil (big no-no) or gas" could be a good question to begin with. Or maybe "I'm reading in the prospect/DD, that we've been short-selling the stock...."
I do kinda hope we get a 2£ bid and maybe 3-5% of the weak holders sell out. Then this die-hard discussion will end (shorts will also die and we'll be back at that SP in a split second).
I'm thinking the short position is from people that assume Royston will be dry/not commercial plus it will take months and months and months to RNS even positive results, while weak holders continue to exit.

A bit ahead of guidance, despite minor issues (but hey - it's the oil business and in Peru, so guidance +/- 5% is actually impressive). Only thing I would have liked is another shipment or 2 via Brazil (since cash is fast, and keeping the option warm is just good in the long run).
I was a bit surprised at the cash level ("just" 79 mio. USD vs. 75 mio. USD after Q1), however, "accounts payable and accrued liabilities were approximately $37 million" vs. Current liabilities = 69 million after Q1.

Q3 2021 average production guidance 11,750 bopd.... Netback 33-35 USD/Barrel? Another 30+ million in the bank next (this) quarter in a company with yesterdays 169 mio USD market cap (!). (Silly cheap & unreal fast payback on new wells).

I trust we'll also see guidance for Q4 and 2021 as a whole being met.

2P reserves of 51 mmbbl with a before tax NPV(10%) of $830 million.
3 Yr EBITDA ~$590 million @ brent 70. 3 Yr FCF ~$180 (Ebitda less capex) & huge tax asset.
Capex pretty much done on Bretana in 1 years time. And Peru and Talara Refinery needs the oil!
I'm really looking forward to Q2 numbers :)

Corpse, 100 USD @ 96K BOEPD will not net 9.6 million/day. At least not when the fixed price per barrel of energy is 14-15 USD when it comes in the form of gas.

... while TXP will receive a fixed price (at least the next 4 - 5 years) for their gas - NGC will certainly benefit from the increase in gas price. That should add to the presure (: for getting the fields online ASAP; red herring is becoming a greater cost for every cent gas price increases.

Numbers are for overall fiscalisation so there is no “barge production” on top.

Another raise will cost him how much in lost trust do you reckon?And NAV vs. Market cap is not as pursuasive as it used to be. What would they even spend more cash on now? waiting at double speed?

PB has said several times that cash burn will be adjusted to avod further dilution. Since he’s not in surplus of trust these days I assume that he will do whatever it tales to avoid raising cash, especially at these SP levels. If he does I’ve got 6 figures for sale and I’m assuming a lot of investors will also be to thin on trust and exit. If he can’t be trusted on that…
Anyways at these OP levels it’s not an issue the next 9 months at least.

"year-end results are over due...."
They were released April 22.

2P NPV 10 is equivalent to 100p.
Hm... PetroTal 2P NPV(10%) is $830 million ~ 1,16 Cad per share, while trading at 0,26.
Is it just the name of the game at the moment? Or is it unusual to trade at this NPV/SP ratio - same for similar companies?

Mr. B. - Remember Buffets words: "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
SP doesn't reflect PetroTals value and the profit we'll see. I just pray that PetroTal start buying back shares; that's the upside of a low SP and a cash flow positive company. They need to come up with a plan for the extra cash. At the very minimum they could buy shares back equivalent to the outstanding warrants @ 16p. That's a free lunch.

Thx Rax - history repeats itself. A lot of great quotes in that article :)

She reminds me of Trump. He reminds me of Trump.
Regardless, Peru often boots presidents. Neither of them are likely to be in office the full term (IMO).

Anyone sitting on an updated trigger list? Mine is not up to date.

Completely agree. Castillo (or maybe one of his minions) said he was inspired by Scandinavia/looked that way - and not at Venezuela (despite the founder of his party's views).
And TBF - who would prefer Venezuela's "model" over Norways?
There will be no nationalisation with the present congress.