Member Info for Sturm

Regarding the oil price... doesn't impact TXP much compared to other companies (in other countries).
The tax is kneecapper. I prefer LNG despite lower BOE price. Less production costs, no distribution costs, stable and rising prices.
http://www.ird.gov.tt/for-petroleum-companies Read and weep.

Mr. B. Honestly, dont be too worried. Worst case, this might end with a (minor) delay. Petrotal is sitting on nearly 100 mio USD after the bond; they're not going out of business. Meanwhile state-owned PetroPeru are trimming their billion dollar upgrade to the ONP-ending Talara Refinery. They seriously need the oil. So does the state (Peru is a net importer of crude).
Add those things together + add the experience from last year. This will blow over. And besides - honestly - indigenous people certainly have a right to see improvements in their life. You don't see many windmills in e.g. Norway - why? People dont want them around. Imagine living at and of Amazon, when small and big oil starts disrupting and poluting the local area. Of course they should be compensated. That's on the regional and national government, Petrotal is certainly contributing to Bretana with electricity, hospital gear, rations, etc. The disrupters are from another region; this is not even a local issue. Just google petrotal and use google translate - you'll get the picture :)
/Sturm

TBH under the present tax regime in T&T and the heavy (over) taxation I'd rather have a lot more gas than the energy equivalent in oil. Cheaper to handle, lower capex and probably higher fixed prices in 5 years as the world turn more towards gas. Yes, the price is much lower now but is it in 5-10 years? + Capex, distribution, OP volatility etc. The delays are annoying but that's the game.

I wonder if the million trades these days are II's selling or buying.

Corpse it wasnt 398 K but 308 @1,53

We probably need the well with the broke pump to come online before we see the next jump in production. Then was it 5 more wells this year?
We "just" need patience :)

IMHO the "take over" talk is just noise untill there's at least one major shareholder with a share number sufficient for making a credible or forced buyout. What price would PB even recommend would be enough?

Luckily we have a zillion PI's and no real majors.

Getting 30 - 35% is fortunately a complete nightmare for anyone. The increase in SP will just be massive. Only option for a major shareholder to get a decent bite (IMO) if we're getting bad results on several drillings.

Who in their right mind would sell before we even have Royston tested? Of course some short sighted people will - but once they're shaken from the tree, would you have more than 15% as a fresh major shareholder pre-Royston? I srsly doubt that. And what would that even mean for the SP? 5£? 10£? So - it's just noise so far IMHO.

Viable I agree completely regarding Osheki. With the wall of cash coming in and Oshekis proximity to decent roads, even drilling a wild cat would be worth the risk, considering the MASSIVE prospect. I'll cry a bit and maybe move on to other companies if they give up on that. If Osheki's the monster it could be, that's easily several CADs worth of SP.

I guess we're getting spanked while OPEC+ meeting is just days ahead. Probably a soft increase in production and OPEC+ is probably not interested in maximising oil price - they want US shale oil and investment to stay low and I'm happy with 60$ the next few years. At some point global demand wil decrease, not unlikely this happens in this decade.

I wonder how much time this work will take: "In addition, a $1 million workover on the 4H well will commence in March that will result in a higher capacity pump being installed". I guess that alone bumps production > 10K, maybe 11K BOPD.

Not groundbreaking news.
Still nice to see the absurd cash flow/market cap this jewel will give us. With the ramp up in production I assume P/E will be below one end of 2021. Maybe it's just me, but based on that I'd say the SP should be >0,5 CAD now and > 1,2 EOY.
http://petrotal-corp.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/PetroTal-Investor-Presentation_March-1_-2021-Final.pdf

That's outdated info. Check out p. 17 in the investor presentation:
http://petrotal-corp.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Petrotal_Presentation_011221.pdf
"Should ONP be unavailable, Bretaña could maintain 20,000 bopd for ~60 days by using current available storage capacity of ~650k bbls, later increasing to ~700k bbls"

The "erratic" production is because it's fiscalized data from pump station 1/Saramura and Iquitos. It gets there by barge (9 in play), and the capacity is 10.000 - 30.000 bbls per barge. Oil for export would be fiscalized at Bretana. CNPC is proably hooked up to a pipeline somewhere and are drilled by some master sergeant + minions. But look at the other producers - same story as PetroTal.

From the Q4 2020 Operations update early january:" With the ONP now fully operational, production from the Bretana oil field is currently 9,500 bopd and is expected to reach 10,000 bopd in the next few days".
BUT It's below 10.000 because (from the Capex 2021): "In addition, a $1 million workover on the 4H well will commence in March that will result in a higher capacity pump being installed. The 4H well has been shut in since late January due to a transformer failure during the commissioning of the new crude oil power generation plant, thereby causing issues with the original pump. With the enhanced capacity pump, the estimated lost production of approximately 100,000 barrels of oil will be recovered in Q3 2021 and will lead to consistently higher production rates and a higher estimated ultimate recovery for the 4H well." (IMO good job on that problem).

BOEPD.... I really hope PB stops talking BOEPD when most is gas and the price is wildly different.

A shame they're not completely impartial ;)

It's fiscalized for royalties at Bretana and will eventually be included on the linked fiscalization page.
What I dont know is if it's when crude enters the facility or is tapped for transportation. And that's obviously quite important on the "Brazil export" case.

Tax link:
http://www.ird.gov.tt/for-petroleum-companies

Honestly, calculating NPV until 2054 - makes no sense and oil is only for low cost wells at that time, what remains anyways.
Also it's a bit optimistic on the tax side isn't it? Tax on oil is 50%? Plus 30% corporate tax? Not a heaven when it comes to oil production. I doubt they'll be netting (that) much from oil unless tax conditions change.

Re. the recovery rate: I (and so do Petrotal from what I understand) expect the rate to go up - and dramatically so. Meaning P1/P2 will just continue to increase, supporting market cap. It's an upside possibility that it's low.

Photo - the contract has an option to renegotiate price after 5 years. So basically we're getting a ~free pipeline but with a 5 year lock up. In 5 years, with Biden fighting fracking and the Key XL pipeline, etc., we might have gas prices MUCH higher than the current level. At that point I suspect TXP is pretty much free to fill that gas on a LNG carrier and ship it to US or Asia.
Greatest thing with the gas contracts was IMO that we avoided more dilution and getting a "reasonable" (was a bit lower than I hoped, but whatever) gas price with easy and guaranteed distribution is a nice deal with no friction.
What I'm more concerned about is the oil tax @50% - that's before company tax from my understanding. T&T doesn't feel very friendly at that point. And in 10 - 15 years I suspect oil will be a low-margin market favoring companies in low cost and low tax settings. When oil consumption begins to decline it will change the game.
Still long ofc. More happy about the gas than the oil. And not too certain the oil will be worth much in 10 - 15 years, making me quite sceptic about the NPV predictions TBH.
Just my 2 cents :)
/Sturm

No wonder OP is strong despite the CoVid fear (or rather, the fear of CoVid impacting economy) in wave 2.
Crude oil inventories:
1/22/2021: 476.7 million barrels (Yeah - it's still a lot but...)
down 9.9 million barrels from week earlier (... boom - they didn't suspect this at all).
up 45.0 million barrels from year earlier (Not that much TBH - with CoVid in mind),