Member Info for Sturm

86,815 shares traded today so far. Pathetic volume. Let's hope Canada changes the mood.

Assuming they’re at 200 mmcf across facilities and sell at an average of 4 USD (net after heritage); TXP is lookibg at 200 million usd in net profit after tax What’s that worth in market cap? Optimistic but not unrealistic (but ofc pre exploration Capex). What is that worth in market cap? What Will the management discount be?

We had some dilution on "stuff" that wasn't related to Cascadura and probably some debt wrt. Trinity. The lack of laser focus on Cascadura is IMO the main problem. (Not the only one).

Now we should be past that. Since cash should ramp up fast enough to keep development on track. No doubt it's very underrated now - 5 x should be "easy" provided they get to 150 mmcf (total), with a higher gas price and CB done. It will take some time to rerate ofc. But I'm holding untill Kraken at least, so in no hurry really.

Sharesohoy, at 80 brent there are quite a few O&G companies, that can buy their own FULL market cap in 5 years.

I other words, if you're not selling and everyone else is; you'll be holding the last share and 100% ownership in 5 years. So ofcourse shares increase in price, when the numbers are cut via buybacks. You CAN'T get the same compounding via dividends. 5 years of big dividends isn't going to move the SP much and certainly isn't going to make you own 100% of the company (under the false premise that share buybacks doesn't work).

Companies should go all-in on buybacks, when their P/E is low compared to peers. And all-in on dividends, if it's high. And mix when the P/E is fair.

People who argue against buybacks don't understand that compounding via buybacks is MUCH more efficient than dividends. And you don't pay taxes on buybacks. And you can sell 10% of your shares when the company has bought back that amount and still own the same total share - it's just up to you and not Mr. Tax when you're paying tax.

@LSE, 2025

Annual free cash flow, **prior** to dividends and buybacks (!) is 37 million @ 70 brent & the guided 22K in 2025.

@ KS: The defensive CAPEX re. erosion control isn't done before 2026 Q2 - and with the present levels of water, who knows if that's going to stick. So "soon" coming down... IMHO a bit to soon to declare that.

So as I wrote in response to Merlin2014 still stands, since dividend @ 0.015 = 55 million and >> 37 million.

I don't get why they're not simply swapping 10-20 million of their "emergency funds" of 60 million into shares, and just stick them in the vault. They can be used for acquisitions and will save us quite a bit in dividend.

Anyways, I think my dividend money (what's left after tax) will go into African Oil this time, with ok share buybacks and nice dividends as well. Ot maybe some more Valeura (sitting on a pile of cash and doing buybacks instead of beginning dividends. Just what the LTHs want.

At the present brent price, dividend is not sustainable at the present production and CAPEX (Erosion control aka "fix the Amazonas") rate.

So either we need a higher brent price or they need to reduce CAPEX (or add production vs guidance).

Extra cash is not happening @ 70. And should go to buybacks, which will increase dividend/share massively (!) over a few years.

Or we might get lucky and have a year without a significant drought.

It's simply not a golden cash machine below 75 brent.

CB in three weeks? That sounds like ramping that will hit the SP later, when people are disappointed.

Facts are enough to move the SP over time. Fiction not needed.

I'm looking forward to the AR and the update (keeping expectations low). I think they'll focus on CB for a while—no point in bringing low-price gas online at Cascadura before a new gas deal is negotiated, especially when other targets (CB) are more attractive. They should drill 4 and 5 at Cascadura, but I wonder if that will be it for the next 12 - 18 months?

Time will tell.

After all this waiting, it's not the right time to be impatient and sell. The deal should be done in April, Q1 results in May, and a guidance update will likely come when CB is finalized. The real rerate will probably take a full year (next summer?) and will be bumpy with all the frustrated shareholders who want out.

We've certainly gone from "tell me the story" to screaming "show me the money"! CB signed should help. Also Cas 4 with reasonable results. Even drilling Cas 5 on time and budget would help a bit. I give that around 14% CoS :D

I did think the new (...'ish) rig would be able to handle the difficult wells. But I guess they should have gone with a bigger well (or simply crew'ed up?).

The day before the CB deal was announced, the SP was exactly the same as it is today. Kinda funny. So how much is priced in for CB vs. how much should the drill-delay cost? Same up as down, I guess.... which doesn't make sense.

IMO we're up for a huge rerate, once CB is signed and we get a new guidance, reflecting increased production @ increased price. Time will tell.

Alligator, might be people who have to cover shorts on Tesla stock. Or for funding conversion of warrants elsewhere. Who knows? Infinite answers. Let me ask you a similar question: How much does a house cost?

IMO nice to see that kind of volume swing through on mixed (but overall slightly negative) news without moving the SP much. So a lot of the shares that would be sold into the rise we will get when CB is signed are gone, and the CB deal will get the SP to hit timeout levels when they're released.

But... we'll likely get the AR first, so probably no real FOMO yet.

G_G_G once in a while dogs actually do eat the homework.

In the meanwhile, we're at least getting closer to CB deal.

But there can be no excuse re. drilling Cas 5 with no delay (and no f-up) - and also the next AGM must reduce the BoD for sure. I think they know that.

We've had many +10% days without news. But maybe this time ;)

Reverse split doesn't make you richer. Doubling the share number wouldn't either.

But since share buybacks doesn't work, here's how the bananaman can own #PTAL 100% if only the banana doesn't sell for six years. That's the time it would take for #PTAL to buy back all outstanding shares, excluding the bananamans.

Some would argue that you can achieve the same thing with dividend. However, for that to be true you would need 375.000.000 shares and 6 years of 16% yield. Math is funny that way, right?

But as I said. I don't have the skills to teach that level of math, so bananamen can understand it. But I very much prefer clowns on boards compared to clowns in white buildings.

I Love you Aligator.

Oh, this can go much lower. Below 75/Brent, there is no dividend (at least not from cashflow).

At 60 USD/brent, they'll have to slash Capex to the bare minimum.

And at 55 brent it will be ugly.

Why you think the price of oil is something Manolo controls is beyond me. But it makes sense, in your head, I guess, that From your PoV, #PTAL is the only company doing poorly with a low Brent price. But I don't have your level of logic so It's beyond me to change your pov. Or explain why Manolo doesn't decide the price of oil.

I can say that we don't agree on ethics either. I don't really like Russia; the lack of respect for human life etc. And I'm not really a fan of the orange clown either (surely the GoP should be able to find someone more like Reagan to run the party?).

I'm sorry bananaman, but it's above my skillcap to explain this so you're able to understand it.

Stas - Someone who can't afford to hold? People who think Trump is causing a wider recession?

Who knows, volume is thin.

This is probably news to you, bananaman. But #PTAL doesn't control the Brent price.

Consumer sentiment and the carrot in the big white house doesn't help either.

A nice recession, and #PTAL should hit 30p. And a lot of other oil companies will break and vanish.