Member Info for Sturm

Anyone thinking Mr. Unbaaylievable is focused must have an incredible benchmark.

A focused TXP would not have raised cash for anything but Cascadura and maybe a 100mmcf plant, and would certainly never have spent time on Trinity (just at a glance: Dilution (!), Different asset types (oil wells galore, shallow waters) and hence 0 synergi with TXP - just a tax asset and a TRUE clusterf0ck.

Anyways, TXP made 8 million USD in 2024. So people are honestly overselling here. That's ofc. without CB - I can't see this is priced in at all, however, if it fails, we'll have new lows of course (that's stock market logic). But we might very well get a Q2 ER with CB on the book and Cascadura wells being hooked up. If that's the case I think 1 CAD will seem cheap at that point. That's in less than 4 months. I still hope/guess we'll get update on debt and possibly CB end of April.

This was supposed to hit 20 SP last week, BBB?

We really need good news and a semi-rerate of the SP to get some traction. And for TO talk at silly levels to stop.

Personally, I'm hoping for a CB deal and financing closed Monday 28th and guidance updated with the Q1 ER May 7th.

Looks like they've increased share buy backs - present level equals 3 - 4%. Good for LTH's. Good for SP stability. Might just begin reinvesting dividend in #PTAL if this continues.

You could add Valeura to the list of 10x'ers - also from buying "tired" assets.

Update from #VLE today:

Strong cash position at March 31, 2025 of US$238.3 million, and no debt;

***Repurchased 963,401 shares in Q1.*** (That's nearly 1% - it will increase in speed now).

They're not paying dividend, but buying back shares untill the point (I hope) when they reach fair value.

That's what I hope TXP will do. If they begin doing this within a year, we're in for a multi-bagger well before 2030.

Requires CB deal & Cascadura development. Hitting one of the company-making targets will then not just be icing on the cake, but a cake on the cake - with extra icing.

I was sceptical about the hedge they've secured pre Trump meltdown, but now it turns out to be a great idea.

They probably have to reduce CAPEX a bit while Brent price is in this range. Or drop dividend for a while. Meanwhile I keep buying in companies with high buyback ratios. Smart use of cash ATM.

People are reacting to imaginary deadlines, GGG. The company hasn't said or promised we would get the CB deal signed in March. It's only Sirmark et. al. that makes those promises. Shooting imaginary dates around only hurts the SP IMHO. Since people react to those dates from "prophets", buying on false rumours and then QQ'ing and selling when "deadlines" are passed.

I was only referring to the development since Trumps SELF-FLAGELLATION aka Liberation Day.

No doubt TXP has done worse than peers the last years (despite the fine opportunities to do better).

I guess the rest of the world have to impose tariffs on US and divide the spoils (what US loses abroad) by sticking to the rules.

I think TXP is doing better than most. You go ask those guys what the rest of their portfolio looks like.

I know you're a big fan of Trump, BBB. He wants everything manufactored in US. Including shoes. Hence the shoe example.

So what's it going to be?

1) Higher inflation (and higher interest rates) or,

2) Production moves to US again (after +3 decades) and to "fix prices", workers can only be paid 10-20% of their usual salary.

Regardless, this will slaughter GoP in the next election. They know that. Hence my question: When will GoP leaders push back?

Not really an excuse for the lack of focus on developing Cascadura the last years. I was never really unhappy with the fixed price. And I don't count on it to be renegotiated anytime soon.

Anyways, where are the news Sirmark etc. promised? I expect a lot of hyping, pumping and FOMO-action now! You gotta keep the steam up guys!

I wonder when GoP will grow some balls and push back on Trump. At this rate, the next mid term election will be an absolute slaughter. I guess he imagine American workers are eager to make shoes in factories, working 70 hours a week and earning 400 USD / month. That or shoes will be very expensive. Same goes for everything else. US power diminishes very fast. US economy is only 8% of global import now, but 20% a couple of decades ago. Easier to go around now.

I assume there's a bunch of conflicting contracts (TXP/Shell/NGC) etc. etc. etc. - a more likely reason for the time it's taking to finalize the deal and sign the loan & acquisition. How much does TXP has to renegotiate with 3rd parties before they can sign the aquisition. Anything that needs Company X to have a (board) meeting to resolve something? It's a bit more complex than buying a new car for the company. And I don't really understand why some posters try to hype "imminent news" when this could "drag" on for another month.

Aligator: You know we love you. No need to choose the Trumps side. Stay in the light. Stop hating. And buy your first share now.

Where are the news you promised, Sirmark?

Now I've better start selling.

Expanded bank facilitties 2024 was announced April 22nd - on a Monday. I'm guessing 28th (Monday) this year would be a reasonable bet, since they've said "April" and we also have easter. Before that is ofc. nice, but since I plan to be here for cretaceous drilling, I don't really care.

CB isn't priced in. SP was 22p the day before - so that's a pure "NO!". Still - I wonder how much the SP will react to e.g. a 10 million USD net profit increase in guidance post CB, since the market cap is 67 million USD now.

No dilution. They're buying an asset worth more than the market cap. It must be via debt or it makes no sense.

Anyways, how much will e.g. 10 million USD in extra net profit from CB in 2025 add to the market cap?

What good news are you expecting next week Sirmark?

CB is "April". Might not get announced before we're close to Q1 ER. Guidance might not be updated before Q1.

You want people to buy now and sell in disappointment Friday, if we have no (premature) news?

Re. ONP: It's very easy to scale and costs per barrel are very competitive at high volume (though not at low where barging to Brazil is far better). IMO they're just thinking "proof of concept" and want to get a new deal that is based on FOB payment (like a barge).

That makes sense (nothing else really does - having huge volume of oil stuck in that pipeline is just plain stupid).

Also very important - something people don't mention: The cost per barrel is lower now if using ONP. Why? They need less diluent (diesel) since the light oil from 131 should help on API /density. Same with Iquitos. I hope they can acquire more fields like 131. Or just produce more light oil.

Erosion control will keep Capex high for the next 5 quarters, so I guess we'll have to wait at least 6 months for higher SP - though Brent price will be more important. No material drought could also trigger a higher SP, but again: 6 months or so.

(All IMO etc).

Hardolestation is just trolling.

Sad.

Will be interesting to see if Canada AGAIN trades higher than the slackers in London.

... is certainly low these days and UK seems to be slacking.

Closed in 22.43p / 0.415 CAD yesterday in Canada.

Up to the Canadians again?