Member Info for Sturm

TXP has had fair results from the wells they've drilled so far.

Before the major oil discoveries in 2015, Guyana had drilled 45 wells over a period of almost 50 years without finding a commercial oil discovery, according to OilNOW. These wells were drilled both onshore and offshore.

So those people drilling Guyana were also rearview cowboys?.... Well I can tell you one thing... they weren't bitter brites, Shell left, right?

How does being a bitter person work out for you rossannan?

Improving your skills to timetravel yet?

Maybe we'll have to wait for Canada to open to see >10% movement.

Brites are just not as fun since they lost the empire... more bitter though ;)

TXP have cash to drill 4 wells; 2 at least should be development and rework & pump is planned. That should be the foundation of some optimism, while the incoming revised guidance will add value, even with a small increment in gas price going forward.

Stop being rearview cowboys for a while and look ahead.

Only small dogs would take 50p now. Stupid not to wait for development of Cascadura, CB and the cretaceous targets (for the more patient).

What should be reflected in your opinion? Loan or signed acquisition?

So what would you rather have?

Recession, low interest rates and low brent price?

or

Booming economy, high interest rate and high brent price?

If you dont understand why the SP isn't above 1£, have a look at Brent price and the net profit after tax and after Capex (and the big spending on river issues).

However, there's certainly much more financial prudency now (after we got rid of the old CFO, Douglas Urch) and the production side remains absolutely stellar. Give it a year and pray for higher Brent price.

Interest rates falling isn't really great for a company with a lot of cash in the bank. Interest rates are falling bco. Trump recession is bad, not good. It's a cure for bad things. But bad things (in this case low Brent price) is worse than the icing (the interest rate). Having interest rates fall bc. inflation is under control is ofc. fine, in those countries where that happens.

Give it time (and a higher brent price). You want to test it vs. peers. It works, since it's basic math. Market sentiment may wag the dog for a while, but in the end, it's the dog that wags the tail.

I've stolen the below from XXX canadiandividendinvesting.com/p/share-buybacks-the-quiet-ally-of-dividend-growth

Imperial Oil

Another company making terrific progress on the share repurchase front is Imperial Oil (TSX:IMO).

Imperial Oil is one of Canada’s largest oil producers, with its production capacity centered around Alberta’s oil sands. It also owns some pretty impressive downstream assets, including refineries in Alberta and Ontario, as well as a distribution network that delivers fuel to nearly 2,000 gas stations across Canada.

Imperial also has the sector’s best balance sheet, and is majority owned by Exxon (NYSE:XOM).

These guys have been gobbling up shares like crazy over the past nine years. Since 2016, when the share buyback begun in earnest, Imperial Oil has reduced the share count from 848M to 529M at the end of 2024. That’s a 38% reduction in the number of shares.

During that time, profits increased from $1.1B to $4.8B. But earnings on a per share basis did far better, increasing from $1.32 to $9.03.

But the real magic happens when we look at the dividend. From 2015 through 2024, Imperial Oil raised its payout each and every year. It increased the dividend from $0.54 per share in 2015 to 2024’s level of $2.40 per share. That’s an increase of 440% on a per share basis.

But when we look at actual cash going out the door, a far better picture emerges. In 2015, Imperial Oil spent $457.7M on dividends. In 2024 it shelled out about $1.27B in dividends. That’s an increase of just over 177% on a total basis.

This phenomenon makes our dividends much more affordable then they first seem, which makes it easier for the company to continue its 25+ year streak of consecutive dividend increases. As dividend investors, we should love that."

He provides other examples, for the sceptic people out there. Remember, if they buy back 50% of the shares, each remaining share is worth 100% more.

What planet do you live on @Toxic?

The next 4 wells are drilled with cash-on-hand (after the placing) and pricing post CB increases.

And the units to handle the production are in place, so it's just drill to fill. They don't even have to hit 4 commercial wells; 1 great or 2 ok would be enough for cashflow to allow debt handling and new wells.

Since it's so poor, name me 3 O&G companies with better risk/reward potential.

how they could have done it:

1) wait for cb to close.

2) watch the sp go up

3) add 5% via direct placing to ii

4) add 5% via inconvertible warrants to retail investors on the same terms as the ii. in effect it will only give 2-3%; but the point is you're treating retail investors fair (which is important, since it's a ri owned company) and it's important that warrants are inconvertible so you don't get the **** show with trading warrants.

if you want to candy it up, it's an option to add inconvertible warrants with a 6-12 months vesting time, allowing another batch of shares at a 15% discount.

I really think they played this wrong. And it's adding a couple of years to a favorable ROI for me.

Only thing I can rejoice about are the investors that wouldn't buy (or indeed did sell) sub 20 bco a fear of placement. They're certainly mad. That's likely a reason for some of the moaning by those deramping the last months.

I was arguing they couldn’t raise the full amount since the dilution would break the limits. I don’t get why they’re not waiting with a placement till CB is announced. They could do 5% at a higher price after CB. They need a new CFO and CEO.

I guess #PTAL has contracts with barges, Manaus, etc. that makes that unlikely. They have the upper hand in negotiations and it's of course always advantageous to be in that situation. So I expect they'll both have a floor on price and receive payment on delivery end of next month, with delivery = unloaded at the station. Costs are higher than barging at low volume, but it scales very well - so at some point (maybe 20-25K BOPD, IDK) it's going to be cheaper per barrel than Brazil (basically everything else than Iquios).

I don't know what you expected, Christo4, but I honestly don't know why you would think they would write it differently. Try bringing this to a lawyer... until every dotted line is filled with signatures everyone involved will note their reservations. Or they'll have to find something else to do.

IIRC Paul Baay indeed said, that the former Minister of Energy etc. SY, was also "defiant" when it came to paying withhold VAT back, so I welcome a new government. Honestly it can't get much worse - the present tax regime really is a growth killer. And the slow bureaucracy certainly doesn't help. (We need to keep in mind though, that T&T is a tiny country with just 1.3 million people. So things take time for that reason, also when it comes to "just" shipping specialized items needed by O&G companies).

The number of PSUs and DSUs declined in 2024 and was never really the problem (certainly not the last couple of years). Investorwarrants were. But ofc. when they vested, you were cheerleading #PTAL and not deramping. (I prefer the latter).

Dilution today is 0,00844. In other words, for ever million shares you hold, you lose 844 shares. I can live with that. And since it's from the vault it's really a non-issue.

Last year we had news on a Monday late in April. Would be great if we had one of the “news pending” 10% moves today.

G_G_G eat a chillpill and then name me a company, that has cracked T&Ts onshore geology.

Xxx sharesmagazine.co.uk/events/event/shares-spotlight-event-010525

Hopefully on the back of a financing/drilling/CB RNS early next week.