Member Info for Sturm

Sounds like 2025 will be a wasted year. There's lowballing, and then there's lowballing...

I don't think they'd RNS and pump it if they didn't expect to (more than) meet expectations. We'll see Tuesday.

I also added more.

There's in my mind next to 0% chance that PB is pulling an investor meeting up in such short notice unless he's got something "fabolous" small-wall of cash and exquisite drilling lined up. At the very least he's not picking the mc up unless he's certaing he's going to attract more shareholders. Not at this point. All IMO ofc.

And all the talk about rising cash... go read the Q3 ER and if you think they're missing cash now after reading that, IMHO don't waste more time on TXP (or other posters time).

@Rylidan: How much do you pay in dividend tax?

I assume most people pay at least 15% so dividend is not as good as share buybacks for compounding.

I'm paying 42% so I'm investing more in #VLE Valeura instead of #PTAL. Same production level. Check out share performance... if you lack cash, you're supposed to sell "pro rata" vs. the buyback. For an underpriced share as #PTAL you'd be happier with buybacks.

@ Dunder - not saying TXP should trade without a management discount. But IMO it's too big now.

What do you expect in Q4 and Q1, given Q3: (Generated an operating netback of $7,408,000 //Achieved quarterly funds flow from operations of $3,024,000 //Recognized net earnings of $1,847,000)

With 2 more wells I' think those numbers could easily double in Q1. Before further drilling.

You?

Agreee with that DP1 - in theory buybacks shouldn't increase market cap, but in reality (when the share is trading at P/E values 2-3 factors too low,) market cap will grow more. If the P/E was 12 I'd also say they should reduce buybacks. However, Buffet is the only CEO I've heard have that reflection... most CEOs don't want to swap dividend for buybacks or the other way around, out of fear of disappointing the market even if it's the logical thing to do. I think insiders and major shareholders have enough. Just look at Manolos share of the company....

Re. sentiment: Just reread the Nov. 13... Q3...

Generated an operating netback of $7,408,000

Achieved quarterly funds flow from operations of $3,024,000

Recognized net earnings of $1,847,000

And in November:

Connected Cascadura-2ST1 and Cascadura-3ST1

Cascadura-2ST1 well placed on continuous production, choke restricted: 20 MMcf/d and 400 bbls/d of NGLs.

Cascadura-3ST1 testing completed , intends to place on permanent production at a choke restricted initial gross rate of approximately 600 to 700 bbls/d of oil

Rio Claro block licensed

All of that + cascadura facility, legacy fields, Coho and 1 billion USD worth of exploration targets.

All at a market cap of 88 million USD?

Honestly, the management discount is just too high. Not a fan, but 70% discount for 2024Q4 numbers is just too high.

2025 P/E is around 1, if they manage to produce 100 mmcf net + NGLs.

They honestly don't care about the SP and they absolutely CBA with retail investors IMHO.

Major shareholder want fat dividends, so that's what he's getting. So that's what we have to suffer aswell. They should buy back 10% per year if they were looking after private LTH's. They're hardly getting to 2 billion in market cap with the current thinking.

I just added a bit. I don't really get the sentiment now. We know they're not hitting this years guidance, but I'm sure they'll repeat "drill to fill" "whatever it takes" so that's positive. I hope they just go ahead with 1 rig; should be more than enough and will make certain they're cash positive. Also, looking at Q3 earnings, I assume the coming quartes will all have positive EBITDA.

And a reminder: we ticked up 32% last year in a single day with no news (and fine volume). It will rerate. How fast and when is unknown, but it'll not take 6 months. Stock market should be 6-9 months ahead, so...

Really looking forward to Tuesday. If anything, PB could shine in the drill to fill + the following phase.

Share price is all that matters. Why the obsession with sell vs buy? Every trade has both a seller and a buyer and it's the SP vs bid/ask (closer to which?) that determines the (useless) tag.

I guess there's been some tax selling this year also? Though that seems a bit more risky, with the potential triggers.

= 36.5 p

UK is slacking.

= 30.9 p. What's going on with the slackers in London?

We didn't get a FOMO Friday last week and since it's Black Friday I guess people are FOMO'ing other stuff today.

Maybe we'll get a manic monday instead :) - we haven't had a random +10-15% day for a while.

/Sturm

Lack of interest is also a massive opportunity for cash-positive "unwanted" shares. Maximize share buybacks and you'll make any LTH very rich + when fair priced, dividends will be exceptionel.

Looks like it's the playbook of $VLE. Should be the playbook of $PTAL (but it's not, so I'm not investing there) and hopefully will be for $TXP. They also really, really owe us a huge chunk of reverse dilution aka buybacks from the silly late raises (they thought they had many jobs, when maximizing Cascadura was the only job, that mattered).

Can anyone explain why #PTAL didn't just buy those shares? Would be a win for everyone.

It's been a while since we've had one of the random no-news +10-15% days. Why not today :D

Market cap is a joke; it's got to take a small step towards a fair price at some point.

Today?

I think so. But we've also had a lot of selling (from North?).

Next news should be without a stock overhang to absorb.

I guess even a 2025 CAPEX plan could trigger an uplift. We'll see.

I'll stick around at least till we poke at Kraken and renegotiate the gas price, so I guess at least 2027 :D

Not worried much about the SP until then, except for protection against random TO offers (which I doubt we'll see though, bco the lack of major shareholders).

With some luck they could buy back shares in 2026 and reverse some of the dilution before gas price is renegotiated and Kraken poked.

Looks like volume is completely gone in UK. Now we just need some great news and we can move on and up.

Country risk, O&G sector discount, low brent price and lack of share buybacks.

3 of the 4 are beyond #PTAL's control.

And they honostly CBA with retail investors (just look at the warrant/free lunch history and lack of buyback from II's) so I don't think they care much about the SP. Major holder doesn't care, so obviously mgmnt doesn't either.

You may try to sell a low brent price as and advantage, but it's not. Around 85-90 (IMO) would be perfect to avoid the boom and bust cycles.

LSE I was referring to the dividend we've received - something to consider before calculating ROI.

If you could guarentee me 0,06 USD / share forever, I'd be happy to pay 0,6 USD / share now.