Member Info for Sturm

TXP only gets less than 15 USD/ BOE in revenue, less Heritage, tax, etc. So comparing barrel to barrel at a fixed price makes little sense.

Another funny priced company is Valeura; market cap 325 mm USD, zero debt, 145 mm cash, 20+ BOPD at a Brent premium and more to come. #DYOR

We'll get a Q2 update this week or next week for sure. I'm almost tempted to buy more, despite the lack of buy backs. Production looks very high and I doubt the dry season will be "century bad" again - and PoO has been higher than expected. But after tax on dividends I think I can get better compounding elsewhere. And the acquisition is still not priced in IMO.

40K BOPD might sound like a lot. However, it's 40.000 boEpd @ 2,4 /mmcf. And 20% goes to Heritage.

The company should have some idea about what to expect from the drilled wells - from wireline logs. And they've not downgraded guidance. They also know more about drop in flow. So yeah, it's fair to expect Q3 and Q4 will deliver enough to reach guidance.

People who're just throwing SP targets around without stating a market cap target or a P/E target (or something similar from pricing future net profit) must be doing technical analysis... I guess... Also you'd really want to do a gas and an oil split, if you want anything sober to calculate any estimates on. Ofc. if you're expecting a diabolic drop in flow anything can happen.

G_G_G I agree, but I'm sure they'll just max out BS again and respond, that they're doing the maximum BB :O)

They honestly don't give a sh.. about private investors opinion on this matter. Major holders control this IMO.

Looks to almost be across the finishing line now. I wonder if this mean people will be selling in piles or if we get positive volume back. I hope for the last, but who can tell, it's AIM.

Https://www.petroperu.com.pe/petroperu-reinicia-transporte-de-hidrocarburos-por-el-oleoducto-norperuano-2

Petroperú restarts hydrocarbon transportation through the Norperuano Pipeline.

Petroperú restarted the hydrocarbon transportation service from the Amazon to the northern coast of the country, through the North Peruvian Oil Pipeline (ONP), complying with safety and reliability measures. The pumping activities were carried out in Section II, from Station 5, located in Datem del Marañón, Loreto region, to the Bayóvar Terminal, Sechura province in Piura.

Brazil is much better earnings/barrel, but IF they can get the same terms (that is' FOB payments) and volume decreases costs, ONP will help #PTAL in the next leg. Can't rely on it though (IMO), since it's more easily disrupted by social "happenings".

Viable, as far as I can tell it was just a test:

"Petroperú, at the request of the Iquitos Port Captaincy, developed a hydrocarbon spill exercise at the Iquitos Refinery, on the banks of the Amazon River, in an activity that strengthens the response, mitigation, recovery and remediation policies of the areas that could be affected, should such a contingency occur." (Google translated)

They're not able to produce 25K BOPD yet. And there are no distribution restraints due to drought right now. None. Zero. They can easily move what they can produce with barges. They look a bit soft on production this month/Q vs guidance (5-10% half year), but we're not going to know why before next update (Q2 info out during week 2/3 of July I guess). And will be close to target including the new, cheap block. And Q3 with no El Nino will blow guidance totally.

Erosion control is not just about dumping dolos - the Amazon river is not easily tamed and sediments push the rivers shape and flow constantly. Water is a brutal, powerful agent.

I think they'll restart BBs within a week. AND they still hold 2.400.000 barrels in ONP, priced @72 - so there's a little snack hidden there as well.

So... I think private investors should be motivated by the voting result. If we're a bit more active, we can change things. Certainly a wake up call for management (at least that's how I would feel if I was on the HUGE board). I've mentioned this too many times, but they get bored and get stupid ideas and/or want to prove their worth, when they really only have one job. (They can fork around after Cascadura or if they have any spare time). Laser focus would have taken Cascadura > 200 already.

People seem more focused on the CAPEX going to river control than on the impact the PoO has - right now, they're bringing in around 30 million USD more @17K BOPD (annualised) which is more than the extra CAPEX this year. And this is without the new field, and still based on the (sandbagging) forecast that we'll have yet another century record dry season. But as viable has stated, El Nino is done for. I would be surprised if we don't get 10 CADcents in dividend the next year + share buybacks. So yield is ridiculous high.

@G_G_G did you get a response yet re. BB? I bet they'll tell you some BS about how they're maxing it out, LOL.

I think dividend will be Monday for most of us, but people usually post about it :D

IIRC SP tends to notch a bit up when retail investors get their dividend and perform their own (yet taxed) buyback.

Agree 100% tc - been my thoughts since they discovered Cascadura. One job... everything else is noise.

I don't think you'll get back in this time either BBBB. OP is looking fine and once dividend hits this week (or Monday) people buy more, since the high yield is juicy and production is slowly growing.

G_G_G, #PTAL doesn't really have a problem delivering oil at the moment. Water levels are fine and oil ONLY leaves Bretana by barge - fortunately they can be scaled (easily). They're drilling as fast as they can do safely, under the restrictions of the field size (1 rig to rule them all...), targeting 25K BOPD in 2026. Workovers and work to control erosion might reduce production and possibly loading - but that's just a guess. I'm not sure they'll be able to hit 25K since I presume we get diminishing returns on "marginal" wells, but the field keeps growing, so who knows? Still very, very strong cashflow and it will only improve (for some time at least) once they stop drilling, reduce CAPEX and just produce liquids - for a decade or more.

No G_G_G, you're not right. 20K BOEPD is only 120 mmcf. of gas. And then there's a whole lof of liquids and oil.

They should have a fair idea about what the 2 wells that are drilled can produce, once hooked up, from wireline logs. And they've not changed guidance.

They'll probably tell you they're maxing out BB's according to what they're allowed to. That BS in my book, and a red flag.

They're usually pausing BBs close to dividend payments, I expect that's the case now.

What would the motivation be for MMs and IIs (of which we have but a few) to keep the SP low?

Agree 100% with Geld on this matter. Don't think they could even if they would (unless they've got access to endless & illegal naked shorting).

Potential gross capacity of 38,333 boe/d from cascadura end of 2025 (if not sooner).

• 200 MMcf/d of natural gas = 160 net = 26.667 BOEPD

• 5,000 bbls/d of liquids

Then there's Coho and TXP legacy. And possibly Trins junk adding to the total. 15-20K BOEPD in 2025 would be a massive disappointment, though on the other hand, it's priced as a junkyard.