Member Info for Sturm

The 2 wells are online in September, so there'll be a ton of news and SP dance the next 4 months. And Trin holders might even vote no (I guess it's a 1% scenario).... If they vote yes, I guess we'll get a complete new CAPEX plan; what will they drill, etc.

I still insist there's little to gain in true synergi effects here. It might be a cost reduction/net profit driver to some extent (but BoD and mgt team probably have golden cufflinks); but true synergi... don't think so. We're buying a semi dead tax asset (which is fine), but paying with underpriced shares and hence heavy dilution. Not great. And worst timing ever.

Honestly, it's a steal at that price. And the ability to dilute Bretanas heavy oil and increase sales to Iquitos (and reduce blending/diluent costs once ONP is online) is true synergi. Facility should be able to handle 5.5 K BOPD. Might require more CAPEX than cash flow can provide initially, but it's very, very valuable for #PTAL. And it's adjacent to Block 107, which might be another advantage in a few years. Did they mention decommissioning liabilities or any tax advantages?

I really look forward to the half year ER :)

IMHO TXP has had only one job since getting the Cascadura results in 2019: Bring the gas online ASAO with a minimum of dilution to shareholders. The board and CEO simply do not understand how to build shareholder value. We're getting excuses about "bad gas prices" (who negotiated them) and a lot of gaslighting all of the place.

What we really need is a new, smaller and efficient board; a kick-ass local management with a fixer mindset and a cancellation of the Trinity deal.

We should have had the wall of cash now and the SP should be around 10X of the present day joke. Empires are build from a strong basis - you don't build a ship while sailing - but this is exactly what they're trying to do. This deal gives us at least one MORE year in delay.

The longer this drags on, the less chance of a merger. So I CBA really. Just let it plummet and hopefully TRIN shareholders vote NO and whoever brought this "idea" and suggested this "excellent" timing will have the self respect to quit TXP.

I think the last time they RNS'd a well was 12H so I wouldn't hold my breath for "breaking news". They might do it, who knows, but they might also not. And after all, it's number 18 so it's not going to be a company maker. And they've previously annonced 10 days flush numbers, so that would be end of may, if it's just online now.

Finally they sometimes release buyback RNS' later in the day. It's not always at 7 am.

It's a fairly big and steady company now, not dependent on the outcome of a single well.

Fun fact: in 5 years (after usual dividend and buybacks) they estimate EOY cash to be 500 million. So... either the SP is going to move or the management has got cash flow and capex predictions wrong. I bet on the former... if SP ticks up now or in 2-3 years doesn't matter much to me though.

AB76, the synergy will be much less than suggested. Trin is mainly oil and TXP mainly gas. The board and the horde of directors probably get a pot of gold each to leave aswell? It's just the usual gaslighting from PB, sugarcoating the worst timed deal.

And investors who're more happy with natural gas st fixed price don't like the increased oil exposure.

I hope Trin shareholders vote NO to this deal and that whoever came up with the suggestion leaves TXP. The only mitigating circumstance is that most of their warrants are now far above present share price. But I guess the board will "fix" that soon.

Hxxps://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-nationwide-national-inflation/

Look at the fluctuation.

"Buying shares is a gamble" WTF - I wonder what country you're from since obviously the educational system failed you. Big time. Buying companies and buying shares is the same thing. So if you DYOR buying a share is just as solid as buying a company or a house for that matter. The share price isn't the truth. Just as a house can swing a long way from fair value, so can a share. But... "Buying shares is a gamble"? What country let you down, SYD197?

Isn't big. Just a lack of buyers. It's completely oversold and everyone knows it. If you have FUD despite Cascadura wells having a earnback time of around 3 months, you're going to feel very silly once buyers return or Cascadura wells are hooked up. Anyways, AIM in a nutshell? People either have FUD or FOMO.

Surrender to your fear boyz :D

It's only the SP that drops. The company remains :)

Honestly, just wait for the facts to rerate the company. ATM II's are throwing away their shares. I think we've reached a point now where Trin is free for new shareholders compared to the pre-bid TXP price. So reward is very promising for new investors. Especially if Trin turn the offer down... that gets worse for them for every passing day it seems.

Remember that Cascadura wells has a payback time of 3 months or so. That's excellent.

At this price, TXP shareholders are basically saying: The value of TRIN is zero. Not even a 200 mio USD+ tax asset is worth anything. So I hope Trin shareholders vote No. That would be nice. And then I hope whoever came up with the ill-timed suggestion about Trin is asked to leave TXP - or has so much self-respect that they offer their services elsewhere.

Those are not the kind of people that should be working for a company, where the goal should be to maximize shareholder value.

Supe, I was the first here to "complain" about the acquisition and my perspective hasn't changed. However, the SP was 17% higher before the announcement and the dead asset (Tax) is worth quite a bit (despite it sucks paying with TXP shares that should trade @ 2 CAD +

That's why I think the SP is strong here - and SP will reverse, IF II's are done selling.

Whouse, that's not a problem. That's a fix for TXP. We can always come back in 9 months and buy Trin in cash.

If IIs are done selling out we should have plenty support here, JFK9. On the other hand, people have lost their cool and they are now, just like you indicate you're doing, "feeling" the share, doing tea leaf readings and what not.

Looking at netback from Cascadura wells would tell you the combined company is worth more than 36p just from that one field. But retail investors can't keep up with II's dumping at this pace. And both groups probably wonder what the next circus act is going to be - doesn't change the fact, that the show (Cascadura) is worth the ticket.

But hey - nothing beats fear. I think there might be a quote or 2 from accomplished investors about this.

Nice to know that North is selling. Timing is as great.... as the Trin acquisition. Maybe they had enough?

Anyways, 200 days, 2 wells, 20 million netback - from wells drilled with low knowledge of the reservoir.

So netback per day per well is 50.000 USD.

And a Cascadura well should cost around 5 million (maybe less, but seems to be some RNG).

Meaning we should have a payback time of about 3 months - probably less as the knowledge increases.

Facility is there and paid for - upgrading to 200 mmcf doesn't cost much more than 1 well.

To sum it up: They need to bring Cascadura to 200 mmcf instead of drilling Coho and what not.

G_G_G I guess the market has absorbed 9 million shares from Encompass Capital Advisors LLC in the last week and that's a reason why the SP has been a bit weak.

I don't know if it's possible due to regulations; but having some kind of "issuer bid" allowing a big shareholder to dump 9 million shares directly into the company vault as a buy back would be nice. I asked #PTAL abour pro rata by backs from larger shareholders a while back, but got no answer (to that part of the question). It would make sense.

Janedoe, this alone should be reason enough:

Since initial production in September 2023 through March 31, 2024, Cascadura-1ST1 and Cascadura Deep-1 wells have cumulatively produced approximately 8.77 Bcf of gross natural gas volumes (net - 7.02 Bcf) and over 121,000 barrels of gross NGLs (net - 97,000 barrels) in 208 total days. Over the same period, the field has contributed a net operating netback of approximately $19.96 million.

Re. the river: They have to spend the money to preserve the field. The Amazon river is a monster ready to eat Bretana if they don't. But costs are still a surprise if you look at the IPO and the annual reports. Some of it is CAPEX and will take years to regain tax wise (I presume), some of it is "just" opex.

But it seems like the new acquisition is totally ignored. It's a brilliant extra leg, reducing costs for diluent, increasing Iquitos delivery, increase "power/influence" and acquired at a very attractive price.

#PTAL is honestly a steal right now, at least at this brent level. I'm still not buying more though :) And I'm here for the long run so I actually don't really care about the SP - at least not when we're > 40p.

I find it very amusing that GTE is buying back 10% of it shares and the banana reason that it's somewhat able to keep up with #PTAL is the reverse share split.

#PTAL needs to reign in the PSU greed for sure. And increase buy backs. Thankfully the number of warrants & PSUs is lower than previous years. But giving free shares (instead of warrants that should be the price of the last 10 trading days) is IMHO bad governance. I wonder if that bit is NYSE compliant? I know it wouldn't be on some exchanges.

From the volume it looks like it's only retail investors doing any trading (no surprise there).

RI sell fast and buy slow. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a small plus or at least only a very small loss. The case still stands, a few extra wells doesn't make an oversold and underrated company expensive.

IMHO there were 0 bad unexpected news in the RNS and the reiterance of the full year guidance should be enough to make RIs read the RNS twice. At this price, risk/reward is very attractive. I just wonder if we break 2 or 3 CAD EOY - or when we get Q4 results :D

-8% lol. I guess we'll end higher than this.

But just saying: This would be an EXCELLENT time for BOD and management to get some skin in the game. I really don't think this is the reaction they expected. Having board members and management with no meaningfull share holding at this point is really disappointing IMHO.