Member Info for Sturm

I'm sure they can buy back (in the next period) a lot more - free flow is fairly high and 100K shares per day /2 million per month is far from the cap (and not enough IMO). I'd like to see major shareholders selling pro rata though, to avoid increase in their ownership and also to avoid SP raising more from the buybacks (to get a substantial number of shares cut out at a lower price - to the benefit of LT holders and LT dividend).

He's still waiting for the SP to go to 40p so he can buy back in. Going to be along wait IMO.

A bit annoying that they're not informing about present (last 7 days e.g.) production @ Cascadura - why leave it up to the market to determine what "moderate succes" and "limited" succes is?

Apart from that, still looking good - next 6 months will move TXP from the little league. Q1 earnings should be ok; stronger Brent price compensates somewhat for the (planned) drop in production.

... is just behaving perfectly. Just below 75 after the 18 percent realized Brent differential.

Guidance 2024: Brent = $75.00 - 18%

So they've been earning a lot more this first quarter than guided. SP doesn't yet reflect that. At all.

And given the forward Brent prices it's unlikely that we'll see Brent go below 75 in 2024 IMO. (Though with all the macro noise, it's a hard call to make).

Following up on my earlier post :D - I wonder which of the many board members are truly independent and on retail investors side (we're the VAST majority here)? I'd like to see one of them buy 500.000 new shares with a "let's get this party started" attitude.

I wonder if anyone dared/cared to ask the company when we can expect an update re. choke & status on the Cascadura wells. They're lagging. Share action should be a kick-starter for even the most conservative PR "agency" - if that (or non of the many board members) doesn't jolt some motivation into the company, what will?

Yeah - looking forward to the next (overdue!) RNS - solid production with bigger choke will remove quite some uncertainty IMO and news/update on the new cascadura wells will cement the case.

I guess there's some ISA influence today. Trades around 40K in volume would be around the cap I think?

Not that heavy tbf. And another batch of warrents/more dilution isn't really helping.

At least (at last) the number of warrants & PSU's outstanding is tolerable now.

I wouldn't mind a bit stronger number of buybacks for a quarter.

Re. share buy backs - I'm not advocating for dividend cancellation; but maybe they should flex share buy back so it's 10-50% of shareholder return, depending on share price vs. forward P/E.

I've mentioned this a couple of times: I really don't get why they're not buying back shares with some of the cash being returned to shareholders. I do hold a small position here, but that's not going to increase until management rethink the dividend policy. The investors I talk to have the same opinion: Undervalued companies with strong cash flow must do buybacks to get back to a fair valuation, get protection from take over, keep a steady shareholder base, keep their bank happy, etc. etc.

That would be fiction. No chance that a Chinese company would invest in #PTAL without management notifying the market.

Re. LotX: It's in NW of Peru, so the "old" benefits of pursuing lighter oil fields in the Amazonas to reduce diluent costs (ONP, and heavy oil of Bretana) don't apply to that field. IMO it's not on Manolo's bucket list.

Somebody just sold @0.84 CAD. Makes you wonder if the last moron is born yet - or if we have "funny" news tomorrow.

I'm not sure it needs to take so much time to do perforations and get results with a new choke.

Well Supersport, you're not really disagreeing? Does he give a f about retail investors now they're past the last dilution?

You can choose to buy the sing-and-dance show re. how well they're connected to T&T government; or you can choose to look at the actions since they speak louder than words. PB has made a fool out of himself re. the price negotiations; delaying Cascadura 200 mmcf/day hardly impresses the government or build TXP negotiation power and then there's all the f'ing around with land swaps and new licences that tells me, that TXP and T&T not are dancing the same dance.

We agree on the coming years though. 2024 & 2025 will be a great ride (and I just hope people f'ing HOLD and don't sell on the first great RNS we get - just let it ride back to 1.6 CAD, which I'm sure will happen during the coming 6 months).

Honestly, you can't apply logic to this. PB isn't interested (anymore) in the SP - which is ofc. a problem for shareholders and long term value creation. Terms on loans would be better with a bigger market cap. Impact and power re. negotiations with T&T government would be better. Shareholder protection vs. take overs would be better. Maybe even his salary would be better. But he just don't give a f about private investors IMHO.

Q1 production was 18.284 BOPD. A bit below guidance.

Sales might be lower or higher - still a lot of inventory in ONP.

Peru remains high risk. Just look at the current government issues. So it's not going to trade at P/E 8-10 this decade.

I doubt there's any manipulation. But I don't really care much about short term share price. Happy with cheap share buybacks = my share of #PTAL increase = future dividend to me increases. And the dividend yield for me for invested capital is >>33%, so why the f care about 5-10% share price movements?

There's hardly any short in the share - being short in a share with positive cash flow and share buybacks is a no-no for any hedge manager. Might be miniscule shorts for hedging (from management or holders), but that's not speculative.

No need for a tin foil hat.

Well, they're not going to test it until Q3, so how much is "TD" announcement really going to affect share price?

I'm wondering more about when we get info cf. Feb 8 about "Completed the first stage of additional perforations at Cascadura Deep-1 where we are currently monitoring initial increased pressure and production rates"

Also I wonder how much gas Cascadura really holds - with the 525 feet of high pressure they encountered at Cas 2.

Reserves should grow substantially for some years.

Since they really (should) have only one priority (at least getting Cascadura to 200 mmcf/day should be it) - anything so miniscule just takes away management focus and binds time and resources. So IMV it's positive and I think we also discussed this a while back, before the ER.

Scott, take advantage of the price and add even more. You know you'll be able to say "told y'all" in less than 2 years.

If you're concerned about that you should IMHO not invest in PTAL. I don't think there are more investors left, who doesn't understand the risk of social disruption.