Member Info for Sturm

"We are maintaining our full year guidance"

That's all I hoped to hear really. The rest of the RNS confirms this and the netprofit from Cascadura is fine (despite they'll probably have to add more wells than initially thought). I hope we're heading in the right direction now - clearly the SP is still much too cheap.

I'll encourage everyone to compare the price of the 2 mentioned stocks since the reverse split was announced april 25th '23. Don't forget to add dividend payments when comparing. Also you might want to consider the effect of buy backs, since GTE has reduced float by 10% since january 2023 while PTAL only really have succeded in having aspirations about that.

It's of course comparing apples to bananas or pears and totally bunkers, but DYOR as they say. Might even inspire some people to skill up their critical thinking a bit.

Re. a reverse split in PTAL: It was approved by the board when the sp was 8p or something like that. The decision was later reversed, after the SP had rerated. Manolo has answered this and you can find it in the old webcasts. I agree with the management that it's a waste of time and money. Not to mention the many times I've mentioned this....

Reverse split ofc. increases the SP, but it doesn't make anyone own more of the company and hence doesn't make anyone more rich. If it can save a company from being delisted - fine - but that's thankfully not the issue here.

I think the main issue with buybacks and people criticising this is that people don't really understand what the underlying mechanic is. The effect is that you're investing passively (pre tax) and increasing your ownership in a company through buybacks (there's a lot of other effects, but this is at the heart).

So what does that mean? Well, #PTAL could (in theory) have spent 12,89 cCAD per share (incl. jun 24 money) on buy backs instead of dividend = 0.1289CAD*915.000.000 shares = 117.943.500 CAD. Assuming 0.7/share since they had money to begin buybacks, that equals 117.943.500/0.7 = 168.490.714 shares bought back. Meaning the share count would not be 915.000.000 but 746.509.286. That's a reduction of 18.4% (also means that each remaining share is worth not 18.4% but 22.6% more).

So this is what people screaming "dividend dividend dividend" don't get:

As an investor with 100.000 shares you could have sold 18.400 shares and STILL OWN the EXACT same part of the company. That would net you 18.400*0.7 = 12.880 CAD.... or the same as you would have received in dividend.

Of course the general assumption is that the price would increase per share, since the value of each remaining share increases. Meaning you would probably earn more.

Only prerequisite is really that the share is cheap for this to make sense. I think we all agree that's the case with #PTAL.

Also, assuming they at some point stop buying back shares, the dividend per share will increase - in this examply by PERMANENTLY 22.6%. In other words: You'd get 22.6% more in each and every future dividend payment, if you skipped 5 quarters of dividend. (That's the "this share is cheap" proof).

So of course you could "just" spend your dividend on buying more shares yourself. But that's going to be after tax. Some people only waste 15%, for me it's 42%. What that means for accumulating wealth is obvious. During share buy backs you can just sell what you need or want at your own leisure instead of getting taxed on dividend along the way.

I also did suggest to them that they should buy back the 66 million investor warrants when it was an option. But they failed to do that - honestly they're not really RI friendly. Personally I'm not increasing my position here because of the lack of buybacks. Oh, and I guess there'll now be some ranting by people who didn't read or understand this ;)

Q1 earning report - from IR.

ER should be this Tuesday. So hopefully only 2 weekdays from a great and SP moving RNS!

Ofc. they'll need to spend money on erosion control. Since Amazonas swallows Bretana if they don't. But suggesting it's "normal" or that it's as fruitful as drilling another 5 wells (75 million USD) is just bullocks.

If you look in the IPO or the older annual reports you'll find no mention of CAPEX related to river erosion.

#PTAL remains cheap, etc. and the numbers are great. But not every surprise is good and there's no reason to pretend the extra 15 million (equal to costs of drilling 1 well) is icing on the cake.

Q1 ER is out in 6 days. Hopefully we'll know more then. I still believe in Cascadura... and haven't sold - but not buying more either.

That was a response to Johnoxxx btw - crossing posts - would be nice with a 1 minut edit window on new posts :D

Dunder, I read your post on ADVFN and I agree. (But) it's too time consuming to keep up with all the BBs :D

How much do we really know about the reservoir yet? It's difficult to drill and decline rates might be worse than expected? TXP is not super keen to get the wells tested for sure.

I'm just saying that the timing for this deal is SO BAD! that you (if you're a logical man ofc) have to ask yourself: Why and why now?

Why the dilution now if you're about to double own production (and hence more than double SP)?

TXP can spend a billion dollars and not be done with all the targets on the plate now, so there's certainly no need for more acreage.

I like the tax asset, but it's not going anywhere. I don't like the fact they're mainly oil in an awful tax regime for oil. And I think the synergies could be better (how much can costs really be reduced).

I'd rather keep +150.000 of my shares instead of handing them over to random Trinity shareholders in a combined company.

@ Darientaylor - I don't mind CAPEX when it's going to growth or sustainable higher production.

However, we're not really getting anything from the 65 - 75 million USD going to deal with river erosion in 2024 and 2025.

Up 15 million in costs or 1.6 c/share.

I wonder what the market will say to this. Results are great (better than guided) - however the increase to CAPEX due to river erosion is not. Dividend to the low side, but same as last year and they are now ready to pay for the additional CAPEX and the new field (I guess we'll get quite some CAPEX on the new block next year). A bit disappointing to see buy backs so low (so that means I'll just hold what I have for now and not increase - dividend will go to other companies).

ADV imo has the worst UI so I cba posting there. That says a lot, considering how poor LSE is, all IMHO. I prefer discord though. Pretty tired of the lack of focus on ramping production here and the inevitable delay to the infamous wall of cash.

At least I have a nice chunk in both #PTAL and #VLE, both reporting tomorrow so that will likely improve my mood!

People who think this is a brilliant acquisition might want to read up on e.g. Valeura. Now there's a management who understands how to buy assets! > 10 x in two years and still cheap.

Horrible timing and all-share gift shop makes me wonder if they know the 2 new cascadura wells are dry (then we're all f..ked) or if T&T bureaucrats told them to eat the Trinity bullet or suffer from endless red tape....

When you buy a near-dead asset, share price isn't supposed to drop.... unless you've f.cked up.

Conclusion: The board f.cked up. Having a huge board makes them bored and they begin to get bad ideas and lose patience. They had one job: Bring cascadura to 200 mmcf, then throw a party and only then consider the size of the empire.

It's adjacent to 107 so I hope they'll finally wildcat the monster!

Looks very cheap and the synergies (light oil = diluent for Bretanas heavy oil) will increase netbacks, especially when ONP at some point comes online again (much cheaper to use light oil than diesel to make the crude ready for the pipeline).

Also explains (well, maybe) why they slacked on buy backs for a while?

Q1 Earning reports tomorrow I guess. Thursday morning at the latest.

Should give us dividend information and update on the latest well (should be close now).

Charlie156, even with the excisting field and no extra CAPEX (assuming they just maintain the field, which is 25 mio USD/year), Bretana would produce for decades and be a veritable cash monster.

We can hope to see some growth from Bretana, the next years, but the truth is that we don't need growth to justify the present SP.

Trinity doesn't have much 2P. I don't give a flying f... about 2c in this case - everybody and their mom knows that TXP ressources on the other hand will grow a lot this year. TXP could/should be rated 3+ times higher from the 2 wells that are drilled but waiting to be tested. Trin is going nowhere. So why is this an interesting trade now? TXP is basically paying 3 times (from underrated SP) for a company that can't grow and has problematic fields? Timing is bad - and they've wasted management ressources on the wrong thing again. Give it half a year and it wouldn't be 1:1.5 but 1:0.25. That tax asset isn't going anywhere.

What a waste of time with that "investormeet". Never seen him so uninspired - nothing new; no discussion, just robot reading.

If this was just as good for TXP as for TRIN both shares would react the same way. Or Trin would be up 40% and TXP up 10%, reflecting the relative size. Honestly, 25% dilution on a low and undervalued SP isn't something you can "wash" into something brilliant. Timing is wrong. Management focus is wrong. TXP have plenty on the plate and not delivering on anything. They've not even an overview of the assets they'll be developing the next 5-10 years. This is buying a cat in a sack. If TXP were trading @ 1£ and had Cascadura in the bag it would be fine. The assets TRIN brings to the table is a passive tax loss; I doubt we'll see much growth from their assets the next decade. There's a reason TRIN SP is low. And another reason why TXP is trading at this level AND THIS EXACT acquisition just proves what issues PB has with keeping focus and delivering on promises.

I'm super disappointed. TXP has one job really: exploit Cascadura and then grow from there. Meaning we should have plenty cash end 2025. This acquisition is ill timed and moves focus yet again.

25% dilution at a point when they should be creating shareholder value instead of fecking around.

And TXP has so many other targets to explore the next decade, so the timing is really bad. Cashflow alone could pay for Trin in one quarter in 2025. Instead we get 25% diluted.