Member Info for Sturm

So - absolutely no fqcking volume in Canada today. Which I guess is ok, since even though we had the annual report, it felt like a non-event (meaning, no surprises). I guess the impairment was an arrow to the knee, though hardly a surprise.

But as we've seen before, it doesn't take huge volume to unleash the beast - so I'm X'ing my fingers for the next releases to be great. PB certainly seems cheerful in the last 2 minutes of that interview.

And volume ignites this share like a rocket (or crashes, but I think we've hit ground zero already).

Also nice to see estimates for cash in 2025 go up. It's still a hope from me that we'll see shareholder return (be it buybacks or dividend - or both) late 2025 (Q4 or paid in Q1 2026). If that happens, I'll probably retire :D

100% Geldautomat. If I was on the board, I'd call PB every morning and ask him: "So when are we at 200 mmcf/day @ cascadura & what have you done to accelerate the schedule".

I bet he would 1) get sick of this question but 2) make some progress.

When Lee Iacocca took over @ Chrysler, every bugger who came to him with suggestions was asked "how does this impact our net profit". Didn't take long for people to get this focus and Chrysler got out of the woods.

So... "when are we at 200 mmcf? I hope you're not telling me, there's been no progress since yesterday...."

Darkangelv2 - I agree 100%, mentioned it a billion times I think.

It's not needed with the present volume. Cost does scale rather well though, so maybe if PTAL adds a lot of production AND payment terms are changed (FOB - once it's "on board" it's not our oil and must be paid in full) - then ONP becomes relevant. Bargaining power (more buyers) and diversification (less dependency on one channel) are also "upsides" to future ONP usage. But it's definitely not needed ATM.

Re. 17H: Looks to be weaker than previous wells - but we can't expect every new well to perform like the best P1 wells. H17 is on the northeastern outskirts (it seems) of the field, so it might be the last drilled there? Plenty of P2 wells to drill still, though, at Bretana.

@Ayecuramba - I guess most of 2023 information is known. They don't pre-announce (not even the date, I think), but they are required to deliver the Annual Information Form in March; they've stated "on or before March 30" but it's easter next week and this Friday lines up with last years date. But let's see.

I guess people are more interested in a 2024 update (progress so far, perforation results, change in choke, workovers + guidance adjustment, capex confirmation and drilling schedule) than in the actual 2023 numbers :D

As long as we're making much more money in Q4 than Q3 I'm not unhappy ;)

I wonder if that will make them adjust guidance for 2024 (forward Brent price, that is).

*Released Friday 24th of March in 2023... sigh.

They released Friday 24th of March in 2022 and they (should) want to release before easter this year. So annual report Friday is highly likely. They didn't already release a date?

More important than the numbers might be any (big) adjustment to the 2024 preliminary Capex/production guidance ("For 2024, Touchstone's Board of Directors has approved an initial capital budget of $33 million to drill, complete and tie-in six wells, resulting in estimated annualized average daily production between 9,100 boe/d and 9,700 boe/d with a forecasted production mix of 82 percent natural gas and 18 percent crude oil and liquids.")

Brent also pushed past 87.

So that's around 55 million extra in EBITDA annualised. ... on a production volume that is based on getting another year with record (100 years event) drought.

1 ****** sold up to 28k @ 0.82 cad; probably got played by a ruthless mm or bank.

Well described, Damofarl. Though I actually think Manolo isn't providing resources mainly because it's an investment, but simply because they want to lead through example and it's the right (and responsible) thing to do.

Nice to see the meters running again :D And we're (again) below 915 mm shares, so it's time to open a nice bottle of wine again. Still a couple of months to go before share buybacks brings us below the latest warrant/dilution sh.tshow.

Yeah, but I think it was Petrotals oil, just not their responsibility (or rather, not their fault, however they might end up with the bill). So they did ofc. aid. I wonder how much oil they spilled? And it certainly explains why we suddenly got 0's instead of 18K BOPD. It's nearly 1 million lost per day; it takes a long, long time to regain lost production.

@viable - it's on my watch list. But can't compete with TXP or PTAL right now, I think. My most speculative investment in O&G is Maha, who's got a carrried part of 3R in Brazil, but also options in Venezuela (!). Early access, very cheap assets, very high risk :D

But I'm counting on the US fighting Russia and Iran the rest of this decade, so they'll need oil from somewhere else. Plus US have issues with immigrants from Venezuela (whole region has) - so fingers crossed.

Any shorting (hardly any here tbh - shorting a share with FCF and buybacks is extremely risky) just artificially inflates the share number. The same share has just been sold and bought twice - or more. But there's still a seller and a buyer when a hedge fund shorts.

Also looking forward to the Annual report - and very interested/"anxious" to see numbers from well 17H late March. It looks like it's in the north east outskirts of the field so - how much can it produce? If the numbers are strong, what does it mean for 2P/3P and recovery rates?

Darien - when the bid is 43 and the ask is 44; all trades up to 43.49 will be marked as sells. All trades 43.51 or higher will be marked as buys and trades at 43.50 will be marked as "unknown". Behind every trade there's a seller and a buyer. So every buy is also a sell. Apart from the "unknown" :D

So watch the share price, not the "gamification" or whatever you want to call LSE's construct/"algorithm".

Buybacks: 45% of the 916mm shares should be free float; that's 412 million so at least 41 mm annually in buy backs + I think there's an option/it's possible to also offer major shareholders same terms on top of that in a restricted buy back?

So they could increase the buy back number by 50% and still be below the 10% threshold.

But it's a balance ofc. Right now they seem to be able to reduce number of shares without inflating the SP; so that means cheaper buybacks. I wouldn't mind a bit more. Especially if we get major shareholders to chip in.

At this brent price and production, they're netting 40 mm USD more than guided right now. That's 1 USD cent per share per quarter extra. Not bad.

Would be nice if they could increase buybacks and go easy on the PSU/warrants; it will be end of April before we're back to EO2023 number of shares.

Might need a couple of earnings reports to ‘show the money’ - but no doubt about the direction. I think the tree has been shaken well enough, and most of the weak monkeys have dropped and gone elsewhere. So just hang in there ;)

Lol Beancounting - don't QQ because you're left on the station. Just find another train. TXP has departed.

I like your energy, Smasher.

I've added a bit this week - we've seen before how the management buying plan can make this jump. So even without material news I think we could easily get one of the WTF? +8-10% days on Tuesday at the latest.

I'm ready for some FOMO. Also, at this rate of expected production increase, they're pretty much trading at P/E 1 from late 2025/2026. Hard to find a better risk/reward play.

OT: So. Apart from TXP, what small, but growing producers are worth looking into? (and not companies solely on AIM).

/Sturm

Https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/peru-grants-embattled-state-run-petroperu-800-mln-loan-guarantee-2024-02-27/

"the loan, granted by the state-owned Banco de la Nacion, will be used as the company's working capital" - so it should make new sales to Petroperu possible (though if it's not FOB, it's not very attractive).

They need to commit or they'll look stupid and have wasted a lot of money: "a bigger-than-expected $6.5 billion investment in its Talara refinery."