Member Info for Sturm

Up to the dividend in September, #PTAL stopped buying shares back to avoid owning any shares on the record dividend date - to avoid paying dividends to itself. We're probably seeing the same thing now.

Re. Takeover. Size doesn't really matter; small companies gets taken over too (and more often; they're simply more numerous). But TXP have no significant major shareholder. And what's the minimum you need to control to delist - Canada/UK? And what share price do you think would be needed to reach that % control? 4 CAD NOW? Certainly higher than ATH. And we'll be > 4 in 2025 anyways. Since I've got no plans of selling but hope to get a fair amount of income from dividends late 2020s then selling for peanuts here isn't happening. I think a lot of the "bigger small" investors feel the same. We've just become self-funded; lots to explore; lot of "drill to fill". Peanuts doesn't cut it.

/Sturm

It's undervalued, but could hobble around 0.5£/0.9 CAD for some weeks. I still find it disappointing that they're not at 60 mmcf/day yet @ cascadura (or are they? We don't know and PB said they wouldn't RNS this) and they will not hit 90 untill sometime late in 2024. (Where I think most shareholders expected 200).

On the other hand it can't much cheaper than this. Self funded, drills incoming, nothing priced in for Royston or succesfull increase @coho with water issue fixed. Nothing for any exploration. P/E of 5 end of 2024 with Cascadura @ 90 is around 1.5 CAD less Capex. So that tells me they need to up production and/or have succes with development wells.

Cost for increasing facility to 200 mmcf is also good news (5-6 million USD).

All IMO & yada yada /Sturm

Looks like Manaus water level is finally increasing and the local meters are at "safe" levels.

Maersk expects low but "sailable" waters for at least a couple of weeks more.

https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2023/10/10/drought-in-the-amazon-river

Would be nice to close above 50p. But maybe that takes a shipment of good production numbers :)

I've also added 5%. Playing the long game - honestly I'm quite confident that this will at least tripple before EOY 2025 - so that's in 2 years from now. Market cap is less than 150 mm USD now. That's absurd. Even at 90 mmcf gas/day TXP will be worth so much more. Despite what people (incl. myself) think about the (mis)management, there's IMHO no doubt that we'll get "there" eventually and the market cap/share price simply doesn't reflect reality. Yes; there has to be a discount given progress/traction & management. But certainly not a discount at this level.

Self funded moving forward; positive net profit, less CAPEX than most expected finishing Cascadura @ 200 mmcf.

Certainly worth >>> 150 million USD.

about the compressors: buy new with lead time of maybe 6-9 months or refurbished, ready in a month? damage during transportation is hardly txp's fault; **** happens.

waiting for a new contract to produce "to fill" is imho a bad choice. investors know the "low" fixed price so it's nothing new to us. i'd rather have 150mm usd in netprofit based on a low gas price and increase shareholder value through buy backs than this waiting game + it's much easier to negotiate from a postion of strength, when methanex et. al. have scaled up and can apply pressure on ngc. t&t might also drown things in bureaucrazy bc. they might push back with more than the same strength. we've made a deal... now honor it. really....

NGL ratio a bit disappointing and numbers less than expected overall. So not a huge surprise that SP isn't moving on this.

Great results given the hand they were dealt. Once river levels return to their normal levels, we're looking at 9 months of superb production (I hope!). Also, these last two years have been much drier than usual. It's not going to be like that every year.

Might be different from broker to broker in the same country. Ask your broker. If it's not 15% (or what ever is the agreement, but 15% is usual) then ask another broker. Or invest in something else. Life is too short to spend time on getting money back from tax authorities.

November looks a bit sad so far - at least river levels look to be increasing (slowly). Still very low @Manaus.

Yup - low volume and more buyers than sellers... SP up without news. We're getting 8-10% jumps frequently. And 5-10% drops for the same reason (AKA no reason - just low volume).

Interesting to see how a small volume of only 163K on a day without news can make the SP go up >9% in Canada.

The fuse is lit. Investors are ready to pull the trigger - I hope they will RNS news in smaller drops instead of one bucket of news.

11,608 BOPD in the worst drought in 120 years? Not bad. Not sure how they're able to pull that of, but hovercrafts might be it ;)

I guess they might bring diesel or some other diluent back from Iquitos and have increased distribution to the local refinery that way. Or maybe they're using storage at pump stations? In any case I can't see how they've been able to sustain that high production through the "traditional" channels from first half of the year. Very promising - and ofc. it will still be a while before we're back to 20-25K sustained. Higher brent price also means they're making 75% of their annual guide these months (so not losing much despite lower production) - and these months were expected to deliver less.

Unless you think Amazonas stays dry #PTAL is just a bargain right now.

Honestly no reason to go EMO on that small volume, sold for tax reasons.

Guyana spurred interest and investment through attractive terms & taxes. I can name you one small island state nearby who focks the O&G sector instead. No wonder production has been declining in T&T for a decade AND no wonder investors and O&G companies look to Guyana (and others) instead.

If you want less of something, tax it.

TBH I really don't expect much in the take over scenario for years. Simply not very attractive for global companies who looks at global opportunities IMHO. Also means any take over bids would be stupid low. Good thing in this case is the lack of II meaning getting the numerous small retail investors to accept a low price is just like herding cats. Maybe in 4-5 years and in a better tax environment.

I've got my boogie on Viable :)

I'm honestly very impressed that they're able to keep production above 9.000 BOPD in the worst drought in 120 years.

I really don't know how that's possible, since all oil leave the site on barges.

ONP right now - and for the past years - is just storage. No point in pumping more oil into that pipeline until they get it fixed, get the oil moving and we get new payment terms. If #PTAL receives money FOB/on delivery, like with other offtakers, then (not before) it makes sense. That would also give PetroPeru and the state a serious incentive to get the oil moving!

And regardless, oil still needs barging to reach the pipeline.

But now people have received the first "social fund" payment (silly way, but still, very tangible) and 2.000 soles = 520 USD. That's A LOT for the local people and it will change things I think - also along ONP.

Maybe ONP will be the primary distribution (costs also scale very well with volume pumped) in a couple of years; but right now it's IMO easier to scale and faster cash flow to increase barging offtakes.

@ suedee5 - I'm not doubting that you bought 16,740 shares. But can we agree that a trade is between a seller and a buyer? So someone else will claim it was a sell. If it's marked here as a buy or sell by the "algorithm" is very easy to see. Just look at the ask and bid. If the trade price is closer to the bid it's a "sell". If it's closer to the ask, it's a buy. That's why I said you should have paid 60.01. With Bid and Ask at 59 and 61 you need 60.01 to make a "buy".

If you pay 59.6 and the bid/ask is 59 vs 60 it's a buy. If you pay 59.6 and the bid/ask is 59/61 it's a sell...

TLDR: Focus on the trade price :D

Nah, you should have paid 60.01 for that trade to be a buy...

You bullied the seller. Who's probably also a retail invester.

So 1 person sold. 1 person bought. And the SP dropped on the trade.

We get these 10% FOMO spikes once in a while. Doesn't mean a thing. As soon as there's just a bit of volume (if there is no news), SP spikes. All it took yesterday, I think, was a 70K trade and the house was cleaned.

I really am looking forward to the next GREAT! (whenever that may be - and it's probably not the next) RNS where they catch the market with the pants down. That's gonna be huge...

I don't think we'll have to wait much longer for a rerate.

At least not with a soft RNS late October stating "payment received, rig comitted, spud ASAP".... which IMV would basically be confirming what they've been saying at presentations.

Pucallpa crossed the 3-meter mark yesterday. It's upriver and usually a week ahead of Iquitos. (That's not a scientific statement; it's just an observation.) So, we might begin to see an improvement in production once logistic and distribution options improve. Historically, mid-November is the latest when the river levels are low; usually, it's okay from late October.

From then on, full steam ahead until next August. The wells have been drilled to support a flood of oil. I'm a bit surprised that the share price has held up this well. I guess buybacks help a bit and might explain part of it.

Really looking forward to Q4 - especially if Brent continues to hover around 85 - 90.