Member Info for Sturm

Very interesting, Viable. Block 107 has been "this time next year" since the IPO so I really hope they drill it, with or without a partner/farmout. Feels like it's worth wild-catting this potentiel mega monster, even if it's 20-25 mm $

... wall of cash.... less can do. Big waves of cash? :) I still don't think they'll be able to (rationally) spend all the cash coming in end of 2025; so a nice 10mm USD/ quarter returned to shareholders is what I hope for. We'll see.

At this brent price and 19K BOPD they'll have 50 million USD net cash EXTRA annually. So 2 cents might very well be the new 1½.

Or they might push buybacks a bit up... or both.

Re. gasprice: Just IMHO underlines how much time and effort they've been wasting discussing price and moving focus. Instead of just asking this question: How do we get 200 mmcf flowing ASAP. No point in drilling anything else or raising money at silly SP levels before the fastest way to 200 mmcf has been achieved.

Also, where I come from (that's ofc not T&T), a deal is a deal and you don't sign a contract without doing your homework.

Certainly looking strong and continues to be stronger than estimated/guided by #PTAL, so they're ahead of the cash curve now :)

And then there's this...

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Markets-Are-Much-Tighter-Than-Oil-Prices-Suggest.html

I hope we can stay below 95 - better moderate high and steady than boom-bust with shale monkeys jumping to new wells... more supply and lower price.

Sorry then :D

Yeah, overachieving and a higher than budgetet brent price.

Would be bananas to complain about performance. Much to come, based on NPV (and we know Bretana will grow + how many more fields will they encounter?).

Somekindofnut - Perupetro is the fiscalized (for tax and royalty measures) number of BoO. They might have local storage that will be fiscalized when the oil is moved to barges. Sales can also be lower - or higher.

It also means that the days with 0's isn't nescessarily (regardless of what some ppl claim on FB) days without production or without barges and the production certainly doesn't vary based on small barge/big barge arrival - but fiscalization might vary with barge sizes.

1-2 days with 0's doesn't mean anything. 4 days usually (I guess) means there's a disturbance of some kind.

Local storage capacity is 90K BoO so they have some flexibility (but only 4-5 days; not much IMHO).

Https://petrotalcorp.com/news-releases/petrotal-announces-2023-year-end-oil-reserves/

"Strong results for various key year-end 2023 reserve-based metrics:

2023 reserves life index for 1P and 2P reserves, is approximately 9 and 19 years, respectively, using the average 2023 production run rate of 14,248 barrels (“bbls”) of oil per day (“bopd”);

Robust 2023 production reserves replacement ratios of 150% and 167% for 1P and 2P reserves, respectively;

Original Oil in Place (“OOIP”) largely flat from 2022 levels. Now at 326, 442, and 595 million bbls (“mmbbls”), respectively, for the 1P, 2P and 3P cases;

Increased 1P and 2P total booked well counts in 2023 by 2 and 3 wells, to 23 and 32 wells, respectively. Total 3P well count remains at 36; and,

2P recovery factor continued to increase in 2023 to 26% (from 24% at year-end 2022).

2023 Proved Developed Producing (“PDP”) reserves increased 18% to 29 mmbbls, representing 60% of 1P reserves, reflecting an attractive ratio of base production to low risk drilling proved undeveloped (“PUD”) targets;

2P Future Development Capital (“FDC”) increased 36% to $551 million from year-end 2022 reflecting an additional 3 wells booked at year-end 2023, erosion control costs, and associated water disposal capacity and facilities needed to accommodate anticipated flush and run rate production volumes; and,

For the first time since the Company’s inception, operating costs, in the current 2023 year ended reserve report do not include any diluent, reflecting the Company’s commercial efforts to find new ways to reduce operating costs."

In the video Manolo mentions they'll be announcing dividend in mid February, with a mid March payout.

They're producing more than guided atm. and Brent is higher than estimated.

So it's all looking good :D

Well, the user interface (especially ADVN, haven't even visited that for months) is really bad. No subsections, no moderation and ads laying waste to screen layout.

No wonder people CBA with these boards and prefer e.g. discord TBH.

I wonder why they're not doing share buy backs instead of (some level of) dividends at this SP level.

Yeah. Again: 10 mm USD extra per 3$ brent. But that's @17.000 BOPD. FCF scales even better with increased production.

And 17.000 BOPD is the target if we get another century-drought.

Personally, I think it more likely that increased production will increase FCF more than increased brent price this year.

We'll see this time next year :D

LSE202020 - that's true at 17.000 BOPD. FCF is 65 million instead of 55, when Brent = 80 instead of 77.

However, at 19.000 BOPD it's 85 million USD instead of 55...

19.000 BOPD @ 85 brent = 105 FCF.

It certainly scales well!

Where's the big sell off? I can't find it... How many % was traded?

Not surprised that the SP is a bit soft after the guidance. But it's IMHO very conservative - Brent forecast is quite low + they expect that they'll have another century-bad drought. That's not very likely (!) especially not following the El Nino this past year - it doesn't come twice in a row. As the last year demonstrates, ONP isn't worth it unless they get same terms as the Brazil export (crude paid FOB not with 8 - 12 months of insane delay and risk!).

I said early 2023 that the guidance was very conservative and that they were sandbagging. I don't think they expected to be hit by the worst drought in a century, but still they hit their target (I guess that proves my point...). So... I'll just repeat what I said early 2023 - they're sandbagging - unless we get another century dry season ;) - and even if we do, they'll probably hit their target.

Anyways, I'm just holding and enjoying the dividend. 12% yield; buybacks and growth to come. What's not to like?

Petrotal isn't interested in getting listed on NYSE. As people following PTAL knows, the question has been answered by Manolo. Expensive and they probably don't have a "vetted" board for it. And the major shareholder hardly wants the extra publicity + Manolo and Urch might not get away with the same number of warrants and PSUs so they're probably not eager either.

Really... a RNS about participation in a seminar? How cringe is that, considering the general lack of operational updates. So RNS'ing is too expensive and demanding, so let's RNS nothing?

Material news: We're participating in a seminar.

Next material news: Both the CoB and the CEO are horseback riding tomorrow.

Monthly RNS with a factual update, like so many other similar companies do - that would be welcome.

He'll sing and dance but hardly tell any (material) news. At least none that can be trusted without a RNS. So I wouldn't hold my breath.

They're not really a major shareholder and not on the board. So they might think another stock could yield better return. Does that make TXP a better/worse investment for other shareholders? They might need/want to pay their rent, or shareholders, or whatever.

No they're not. If you wanted your trade to show up as a "buy" instead of a "sell" you should have increased your bid.

Trades are marked as buy or sell depending on what the trade price is compared to bid and ask. Has nothing to do with your intention. Or the sellers intention - did the seller mean it more than the buyer??

It only depends on the trade price... that's the one to watch.

I3E did actually declare a dividend before the Q4 report was out, so it's certainly possible that PTAL can do the same. We'll see. Getting the fat cheque mid-March would be nice :)