Member Info for Stupmy

I figured it was something like that. Was pretty sure I was excluded from participation.

Tars, how does an order enter into the auction? As far as I know, if I as a retail client placed a limit order before close and it fell within the UT, it would not execute as the market is technically closed. I certainly can't remember having a trade close out of hours?

The thing is NSS, that I agree with you, sekforde and Stevo and Mike and others. If I didn't, I wouldn't be invested and I might argue against you (although you guys have a stronger fundamental/accounting/finance knowledge base than I do). I still believe the likelihood is that I will increase my holding by 40% or so around 151 or lower. I know it's mad, I understand why it's impossible for many to take on board. But it's more significant that you'd imagine.

... with Sekforde that this is likely to be a winner over time.

Here's the chart that demonstrates the gap fills.

https://screenrec.com/share/gywaUF0AZv

"What actually makes you think that Harbour will fall to £1.50 or below. "

NSS, this is facile and complicated at the same time. I look at price action and do my best to buy low with a view to selling higher (again, that seems stupidly obvious but is not easy). I'm sat at 228 on my current holdings so I'm clearly nicely above the bottom even now. Many people will say it's not possible to nail the bottom and I clearly haven't. But I have noticed something about some shares. They repeat certain patterns. And my point is 'if it's always done it before, then what's most likely in the future', I contend, that there's no reason to believe it will be different next time round (although it could be). This approach demonstrably doesn't guarantee getting in at or even close to the bottom, but it helps avoid getting in too high (sometimes at least). It also misses some great trades. In this case, the gaps make me believe that the price will fall to 151 or below (this is not always true so it's not applicable to all shares or indices etc). On HBR, the gaps have always filled. Take a look at the blue boxes on the chart I've attached. You might argue that some of the gaps look off, that's because they're taken from various time frames (this is the daily chart). The question that I ask myself, is 'is the oil market' somehow manipulated so that we're all wrong footed much of the time or is it simply geopolitics/supply and demand and us not having a sufficiently detailed understanding of the nuances of that. The logic that many of you fundamental oil guys put forward is extremely valuable, but it's hard to make it pay properly without taking notice of history or charts or whatever you want to call it. I want to make it clear that I'm not slighting the work that you guys put in. On the contrary, because you're so generous with what you share, I'm responding with a bit more detail here than I would normally (I'm tired of personal abuse and attacks). I'm trying to contribute to the argument. For most, the facile nature of what I'm saying will make it impossible for them to build it into their way of investing/trading, but maybe for some it'll add an extra layer to the investment process.

I think we've been on the wrong side of this investment for years (same for ENQ that I also hold). But, when they do move, they can move a lot. Maybe that's because of their very low valuations at times. I'm also looking to add significantly at the right price Sekforde. I've moved to around 30-40% cash to give me the flexibility to do that (just hope I can be patient enough not to use that on another 'bargain' first).

Tunch, I dropped 100k shares around/above 230. With the price now sat at 194ish that's a 36k reduction in loss on the position I hold. That's worthwhile to me. The dividend I've received so far takes a big chunk out of the loss I'm sitting on now. Also I can't see into the future so have decided to hold the rest of my shares. I'm not in a rush here and do agree .

The problem is Sekforde, that you analyse everything and come to a sensible conclusion on what's most likely over time and from that extrapolate to what you think should happen. I come at it from a different angle. I read your views and those of a few others (and value them), but work on different principles. I work around what actually happens in situations like this and not what should happen. If 'what should happen' happened, we'd all find it easier to make money by investing, but it doesn't (or at least the time factor involved is not what we'd hope). Take the PMO Wintershall deal, most believed that would lead to the SP rising to 360 or above. We had the 360 as some kind of base value. The company has since resolved some of the issues around the idea that they over paid for WDEA assets (that may have been you or Stevo that gave us an analysis of that) and yet the SP has come down. At 194 it's below 10p in old money (taking the 20 to 1 consolidation out of the picture) and it's a much stronger company (it's actually viable now and that was questionable for PMO alone). So if that always happends, why would you believe that it will be different this time round? I still have it as likely that the SP will drop to 151 or below. Since I understand that I can't see into the future. I hold a lot of HBR shares around 228. I sold 25% when the price topped 230 because I believe it's likely the SP will fall back to 151 or below. If I'm wrong and it rises, I still have a large holding and the associated divident (that I think will fall somewhat in the near term).

I can almost hear someone about to say 'your talking your own book' or some such tosh. What's the point, I'm telling you what I'm thinking and it is 'my own book' of course it is. That's actually called honesty. I know it's not a popular thought that the SP will fall back, but it is quite likely in my view.

My 2nd limit triggered at 246. That's my second buy for me today

Sounds like Apendragon is doing very well. Good work to have recovered those losses as Andy says. I've bought one lot today and have another limit buy sitting there. Obviously, I'm working on the principle that at some point in the near future, the price will rise. I'm still filtering people here as they pop up and post nonchalant nonsense. I see almost no posts here. Bearing in mind I filter t it s and timewasters, I can only assume I'm not missing anything of value. The price has now dropped below what I saw as it's consolidation range. Rightly or wrongly, I'm seeing this as a feint to the downside to push retail out (i.e. release some liquidity into the market).

I just had a quick skim back and don't see you stating that you're posts are from an Ai engine. To me, your posts imply that you are responsible for the content.

Looks like Dec 29th from I understand from Shorttracker. It's gone to 0%, but I suspect that means it's dropped below 0.5%. Could that be a result of the increased share float after the LLOG deal (has that even happened yet). If it's the increased float, then they may not have changed their position.

Private Eye is fabulous, or at least it used to be when I read it. That's a nice piece, clearly Trump has it nailed, he knows his onions.

That's the way I see it too at the moment Mike, but over time, it does seem logical that reducing the float should help put a base under the SP as long as we pay down the debt and increase our profits.

I always find it odd, when a post turns up, apparently fresh a daisy and posts apparently knowledgible stuff with confidence. Share your suspicions NewKOTB.

Also finding a suprising that HBR rose this morning as Brent dropped. To me it looks entirely possible that we'll see sub 59 dollars pretty soon. Complete guess, but I think that HBR SP will retrace and drop todays gains. Having said that ENQ and TLW are up also against the Brent movement. The market is always interesting, that's for sure. Is this Wall Street getting it's eye in to fleece the punters over the coming year (again).

"3. Long-term: The reduced share count enhances per‑share value and can support a higher floor. It reduces Harbours per share costs leaving more fcf for distributions."

Bots, that's the obvious logical effect of the BB's but, it's not what has been the norm for many companies engaged in buying back. For many, they've been reducing the float, but the SP has not improved and has often moved lower. There's theory and reality and theory has not currently co-incided with reality either here or for ENQ or for many other companies. Then you can argue that 'over time' we'll see the benefits, but it's not easily demonstrable.

It's easy to find examples where bbs and float reduction are co-incident with rises in SP, but these are often also co-incident with increased revenues/profits over time. Apple is an example. Huge bbs, increased revenues and profits and increased SP. Big buybacks when a company is sat on a lot of debt, leaves less flexibility wrt to e.g. CAPEX and slows debt reduction. For us with O&G prices currently declining, that might not lead to any quick improvement in SP.

I'm just thinking aloud, based on what I've seen over the last 2 or 3 years and am not claiming any expertise. But, what I do find useful, is watching what is actually happening and separating this from what you think should be happening. You can then take that a step further to try to figure why there's a discrepency and you'll either be right or wrong about that, but it probably won't help your trading/investing very much.

"BP can you ask chat GPT what will happen to the share price when the buybacks stop in a few days??"

In response to your request above Y, here is what I asked Perplexity.

'When stock buybacks by Harbour finish in a few days, what is likely to happen to the Harbour SP?'

Here is the response, that looks predictably generic. I say predictably as even AI cannot see into the future.

"When Harbour’s current buyback ends, the most likely immediate effect is a loss of a steady, price‑supportive bid, which usually increases volatility and can put mild downward pressure on the share price if other demand does not replace it. It is not deterministic though; the direction will ultimately depend on how other investors react to the company’s post‑buyback capital allocation, fundamentals, and sector news.

Typical effects when buybacks stop

Academic and industry studies show that repurchases often improve liquidity and narrow spreads during the programme; once they cease, spreads can widen and depth on the bid can fall, which makes prices more jumpy.

​

If there is net selling from other holders once the company steps away, the absence of that constant buy‑side flow often results in weaker prices or at least a fading of any buyback‑related outperformance."

There is more, but I think anyone interested enough should do the search themselves on whatever their preferred AI engine is.

Never thought of it like that Clued, I just consider it bad form not identify the source (i.e. to pretend you are responsible for a piece), but I like that idea 'if you post something without qualifying its source then You 'own it' and are responsible for the content !!' Really appeals to me, there is theoretically a form of responsibility when one takes the decision to pass off the work of others as your own.

QF10, I think the price will fall to 220 or below and if it doesn't find support, it's not unlikely that it will fall to 192 or below. I'm not currently exposed and will not take a decent position until I see 192 area. Around that level though, I'd start to get pretty interested.

191/192 area looks probable at the moment. Might be some up and down before it gets there though.

Dan, that's not really likely I don't think. If oil drops to 40 and gas comes below the threshold for 6mths, there my end up being EPL relief, but part of the reason for this aggressive diversification out of the UK is to reduce our exposure to the EPL. I find it very difficult to believe that even removal of the EPL will now increase our SP. The impact of lower O&G prices will out weigh it my view.

HBR is steaming ahead acquiring low cost assets to bump up production, diversify away from the UK and build up reserves. I'm gagging to see what we're up to behind the scenes. Seems we've the finance on hand to complete something and we were told a very long time ago that a we were looking to close a deal in '6mths'. Still waiting and hoping that when it comes, it will be something very positive. Does seem to be taking a long time to arrive though. Merry xmas everyone.

Interesting that HBR SP after 2-3 'transformational' deals has fallen so far. They've just pushed the debt up and announced a change to dividend structure (that I believe will bring the divi down in the near term). In my view that's likely to bring the SP down to 150 or so. What'll happen to us here when we do announce we've completed a deal of our own. History suggests it might not result in a rapid increase in SP. Fingers crossed though that over time both HBR and ENQ will benefit from their good management and an increase in oil n gas prices

Merry xmas and a happy new year to you all. Let's hope it's happy in a SP related way!!