Member Info for Stupmy

Thanks for that post Bp. We have a lot to think about and it looks like in the short term, the dividend is likely to fall. I still own a lot of these and the dividend was one of the major attractions. There are people here much better placed to explain the strengths and weaknesses of this deal, but longer term, management who seem to be very good are selling a very positive picture. From my reading of various experts, 2026 is likely to be a very choppy year for the markets with some increased risk of a decent drop. I had expected to buy back the shares I sold around 193, but I'll have to really digest this when I get back to the office to figure out how likely that 150 area is now. My general view is that HBR is a very good company with very good management, but pushing too hard on the debt is a risk. POO has been dropping for a while whereas other commodities have been racing ahead. Some of what I read suggests that oil is just waiting for the right moment to break sharply to the upside. Unfortunaley some of it has WTI coming off to 45 dollars a barrel. I have no idea which will prove to be correct. Very interesting times for HBR and a very aggressive campaign of acquisitions.

Oh, and merry christmas everyone. Hope you're all having a great time with family and friends.

The top of the consolidation range seems to me to be about 270. We should see that again quite soon in my view. The price ran up to 295/298 area twice and the 2nd of those times it was with reasonable volume (first time low volume rapid spike; didn't seem to take any/many stops). The spike down to the 215 area didn't attract volume either, which I'm interpreting as a lack of stops. Holders are holding not actively trading. That could be related to the spread and the narrow range in prices. In my experience, the longer the consolidation pattern, the better the chance of getting a good move. Assuming it's accumulation (I explained my views on that in a previous post) then I think that we will see a pretty good move to the upside once the price has cleared 270 and then 300. A close above 300 (which I view as likely but can't guess at the timing) might bring 325 and 370 into play. There's also a descending trendline from Aug 2024/Sept 2025 that has been respected up to now. That might bring in some sellers currently around 314. For me, I'm reasonably confident we'll see a move up, but after that it's going to just be a watching game. Obviously some good news could have it move up sharply due to the low liquidity here. At the moment, I'm pretty comfortable with my holding. I think I need 274 for b/e (from memory).

they break it down and use algo's. so if they want 250k shares, it's going through in the hundreds, maybe a thousand at a time. they're not paying fees on the transactions and are being paid for the flow. they don't play exactly the same game that we play. we have some advantages and they have some. but it's best not to talk ****e about shorts (which many do). they are very sophisticated.

That's deep man.

I feel the same SD and although it sounds ridiculous for a good company, with great management and likely a great future, I think we'll see it and even hope for it. That's despite the fact that I'm currently holding 300,000 shares at (from memory) 228. I want that 150 area to bring my average entry down because I think they will maintain the divi.

VS, I've spotted a spelling error now!

If oil drops to 45-55 then I think our SP will drop a lot (this is a consistent view and not a popular one).

I'm ashamed to say that I had to look that up. Pedant: a person who is excessively concerned with minor details and rules or with displaying academic learning.

I have to say it interested me, perhaps I'm a pedant too. I know for god damn sure that I'm a peasant.

I think we've seen liquidity sweeps to the downside (Oct 16th) and the upside (Nov 10 and 18th). Not sure what the point is as my interpretation of volume data suggests people are not using stops (probably investors dominate over traders here; makes sense with low volume stocks). But, maybe the sweeps are ocuring simply because its so easy to do and so cheap with a low liquidity stock. We're still in the consolidation range and really need to see 299 or higher as a close to have confidence that we're on the right side of this trade (assuming long bias). For me, I think that long is the right side of this one and a close above 270/271 sees us quite quickly to 300 or above. That would put me in profit, so for all you non-thinkers out there (Winner for example) that's me ' talking my own book'. What a load of nonsense people talk on bb's. Sound bytes mean fa. Be careful who you listen to.

I still remember your analysis Stevo, which I very much appreciated and took seriously. This one does look like a very good deal. HBR is my largest holding and my entry price is reasonable, so my dividend is makes me happy to just hold it (largely). I did sell 25% around 230 (small profit) though with a view to buying back lower and reducing my mean entry. Only time will tell whether I get that chance. I find it very difficult to just sit on my hands, which works well sometimes, not so well other times. To add that 25% back (I need the price to drop to some of those levels I spoke of and I view it as more investment medium term.

However, Today the price shot up 13p or so (I didn't buy), has now retraced about 50% and I've bought some with a view to a short term profit probably today. For the longer term stuff I have to be happy with the holding and your analysis is one of many things that have helped me with that. For the short term stuff like today, it's more like 'this usually happens, why would it be different this time around?'. Fingers crossed it works. I'm working hard at being better at short term trades and this one is part of my learning curve.

Thanks for all of your input. I often think that I'd have to pay a fortune to get that sort of info if people like you were not generous enough to share. So thanks Stevo.

Little bit of positivity coming through, but like you say that's muted or slow to appear. For the moment UK oil and gas is not very loved. What I'd love to know is, what did ENQ raise the money for/what's their targeted transformational deal. HBR seem to be more effective at the moment in completing acquisitions/disposals.

I don't mean to be doomster, just the way I see it I'm afraid. This mornings RNS seems very positive longer term, but if we get a bounce I can't help thinking it will be sold into on the basis of price of Oil and Gas, plus the dreadful EPL situation. Think about the Wintershal DEA deal and price action after that. Most of us viewed it very positive and very likely to lift the SP substantially and sustainably. Seems to have been pretty well good news as far as the company and it's management have performed since that time and yet the SP has fallen. This deal is smaller, it's set against a dour backdrop and would seem to me unlikely to lead to a sustained increase in SP in the short term. Deal looks great looking a little further out. I'm long so an increase in SP is good by me. If the price did fall though, as stated before, I'd be happy to add quite a lot at certain levels. Also wondering what ENQ might pull out of the hat for their 'transformation' deal. Seems to be an awful long time coming with that one.

I agree Banburyboy, be interesting to see how the market responds. Hard to imagine it wouldn't be positive, but the threat of lower oil and gas prices, plus the EPL not being materially ammended might mute any response.

Between 187 and 192 looks very likely now and I have lower targets that are not unlikely. If oil and gas continue to slide, we could see below 157 and possibly 146 to 152.

Gas down too Mike, probably playing a significant role.

Good article/discussion JP, thanks

From Oct 14th the share seems to have been in a phase of consolidation (I believe accumulation by someone/s). It's actually quite a long period of accumulation if that's what it is. The reasons I suggest it is accumulation are that over that period Artemis has upped it's stake twice during the period from 3.25% to 5.02% and Lion trust increased it's holding to 6.15%. That fits with the way I'm thinking about things. From the chart, we're clearly consolidating. According to analysts our SP currently represents value (for Winner it was a raging buy at 400 or so from memory) and two institutions at least have added to their positions. Since the free float is reasonably small on YOU (meaning clumsy accumulation would shift spread and price therefore undermining a big players aim of accumulating at what they believe is a good price), then it makes sense that this period of consolidation is longish. Worth noting that Citadel increased their short on Dec 2nd (but this kind of stuff is very hard to interpret; although apparently Winner can interpret it). For my money, there will come a time when whoever is accumulating has pushed their camel through the eye of the needle after which, the price will make a decision on direction and I think it will be up.

Just shooting the breeze, keeping Winner on top of things. I know he likes to chat.

Market suggests nothing out of the ordinary. Still in a long consolidation phase. Be interesting whether the real move from this is up or down. I suspect up, despite some liquidity sweeps to wrong foot punters.

Where did you come from QF10. You suddenly appear as very, very bullish, post relevant information and very high targets, but no history to get a feel for you and your motives?

Well, we're below 185 now (183.5 showing on my screen), be interesting to see whether we get a turn to upside again in the near future. From memory I'm holding my latest buy around 228. I think I'd be prepared to increase it to bring down that entry price to the 200 level or something close.